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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    1.23.23 Euro Weeklies....Farily strong trend of cold being eastwardly displaced(from the last run) into the Plains, Midwest, Upper South, NE, and eastern Canada. They are also picking up on the colder airmass around Feb3rd-10th. The can kicking this time is the warm-up being pushed back. The 12z EPS was colder, so the Weeklies (derived from 0z) were not derived from a one-off run. Of note, the SE ridge gets pushed back pretty far to the SE on this run until mid-month. Roughly weeks 1, 2, 3 were cold w/ 4 seeing some moderation. Feb1-10th is where the cold shot is centered.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I do want to see the Euro Weeklies MJO. The BOMM is trying to loop it back into cold phases and the Euro isn’t far from it. What I am noticing is the MJO looping back into 2 and 3 which are cold for February. Right now I am not even thinking storms, but just getting cold I to place for early February and then waiting to see if we can connect with the STJ. For E TN, this is probably the best look in some time IF it verifies....
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro ensembles and control are again quite cold. The ensembles have cooled quite a bit. The control has a Carolina snowstorm so it could be the track is now shifting eastward as the cold presses.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Looks like both the GEFS and GEPS held serve at 12z regarding cold and potential storminess. The 12z GFS deterministic was load w/ chances. Keep in mind I am just looking at an active STJ and plentiful cold air...the colder of the season in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Definitely have had some snow showers and flurries in Kingsport at lower elevations.
  6. Carvers Gap
    To be clear, this potential cold shot falls right after the 240h window. So, everyone knows the rules. This is Jan 23rd, so all of this is speculative. These are the d10-15 temp anomalies for the 6z GEFS. The 0z GEPs looks similar, but slightly less cold. Shift the 0z EPS a hair north with the green where it is straddling the TN/KY line.
  7. Carvers Gap
    For kicks and giggles only and so the GFS doesn’t feel lonely.
  8. Carvers Gap
    One last note, it is also possible the GFS is too quick w/ the cold as that seems to be a bias of its whether updated or note. Interesting stuff. We will find out soon enough if it is a mirage or real.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS is coming in quite cold. The run isn't over yet. This is similar to the 12z run from Saturday, except this time it has support from both the EPS and GEPS. Just a guess, but modeling is picking up on a decent cold shot right after Jan31. It is almost like there is an MJO lag right now where the MJO effects are taking 7-10 days to impact our weather here. I don't fully understand when it lags or when it doesn't. Sometimes, the MJO is coupled to the point its effects here are almost lockstep. Still about 8-10 days out there, but if we are still seeing this on modeling on Weds....then it might have some true merit. I suspect the cold shot is legit. Placement of the boundary will depend on the strength of the cold shot, its delivery mechanism, and the strength of the SER. The ensembles do look like a skating rink IMO.
  10. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, we are seeing the signal for an overrunning event. It could be the Ohio River. It could be the mid-shot from Jackson, MS, to Atlanta, GA(see 0z GFS)...or it could be this forum area. But a potential cold, Arctic boundary could be interesting w/ an active STJ. That is about all we know right now. It could all dump West, but modeling has been constantly pushing cold highs underneath that 500 SER, and you are right....that is the recipe for ice/snow in the upper south.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Quick update and then I am out of pocket for the AM. The 0z Euro control is probably the coldest I have seen it at range. The 6z GFS just slams middle and west TN with ice and snow. Yes, it is 10 days out(sign the waiver), but the signal for winter is across the board this AM. No idea if it verifies as this is at range. This reminds me a bunch of the cold run-up in December. Can-kick, can-kick, will it ever get cold, and then it arrived. Again, the SSW(displaced and jostled...not a true reversal) I think is having a lot of impact in the LR.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Day 1-10 GFS deterministic run....that gets us through the end of this month. As noted, the last third of this month would see a pattern change. There it is. Now, we will see if it verifies.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS was not warm end-to-end. The first 1-9 days is seasonal to BN(edit...had to go check). The issue is the MJO. Take a look at those forecasts on the CPC website and that will explain the understandable waffling at this range. FTR, my seasonal forecast has Feb as much above normal....as I basically just used the past two years of Nina winters to create it. As noted in the Feb thread, part of Feb is likely to be VERY warm before cooling back down. I think our window holds util Feb 5th, then warm for ~10 days, then cold again. Then with shortening wavelengths, something could pop within a 3-4 day window.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles when talking February. The GFS deterministic run at this range is like a single member of the GEFS at this range. It may show us certain trends, but might want to take a look at the ensembles before being swayed.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Couple of snippets from the MRX afternoon disco: Colder air will be pushing in tonight behind the exiting cold front as the axis of the upper trough to our west shifts east. As the trough swings across our area some short wave energy will be rounding the base of the trough which will help to enhance lift later tonight/early Monday morning. We will see an increase in showers this afternoon/evening ahead of the main trough axis/short wave, and as the freezing level lowers we will see a transition to snow starting first over the highest peaks by around midnight and then lowering overnight. With the upslope flow/cold advection continuing into Monday, snow showers will linger especially over the normal upslope terrain areas and these locations will likely see significant snow accumulations. Right now it looks like the highest peaks of the E TN mountains will see 5 or 6 inches over an 15-18 hour period, but the snow accumulation is expected to be highly elevation dependent so these amounts will drop off quickly the lower down one gets. Will issue a winter weather advisory for snow for the E TN mountains as well as Lee, Wise and Russell counties in SW VA. The precipitation will diminish in the afternoon and with maybe just a few flurries over the terrain by the end of the day, and clearing will begin working in from the south. and this....(mountain wave??? and more elevation dependent snow) Tuesday will be dry with near normal temps. Tuesday night a Gulf Low will move quickly up the Mississippi Valley with the help of a strong shortwave. Rain chances will increase after midnight with a rain/snow mix possible in colder locations such as SW Virginia and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Little to no snow accumulation is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon with strong WAA with this system. The low will move through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning. Conditions will be ideal for mountain wave/downslope wind enhancement with a 65 knot low level jet to our west. If the forecast holds, it looks like 60 to 70 mph wind gusts will be possible in the East Tennessee Mountains and adjacent foothills. In the Tennessee Valley, 30 to 40 mph gusts seem reasonable. Timing of the winds will be late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rain at times may lead to minor flooding issues late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning/early afternoon. The highest rain totals will be in the southernmost counties and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Storm total QPF is one half inch to 1.25 inches for most locations. Wednesday night and Thursday, a changeover to light snow is expected in SW Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains as northwesterly upper level flow moves into the region along with colder air near the surface. The northwesterly flow may continue through Saturday morning as the trough sits over the Eastern U.S. The best window for snowfall in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains and SW Virginia will be Wednesday night through Thursday as wrap around moisture lingers behind the low. Thursday night through Saturday morning may see some flurries or light snow at times but moisture will be lacking by that time and accumulation is less likely.
  16. Carvers Gap
    For posterity as we read back over these threads during later years...
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is picking-up on some light snow TR/F after the system on the 25th passes - Plateau, TRI, SE KY, SW VA, Apps. It is the GFS, so who knows if it is right but the CMC had something similar but slightly lighter. Another lighter event(NE TN; SW VA) ensues Saturday per the 18z GFS. That shouldn't be included in those totals.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Meanwhile, WWAs have been posted for the E TN mountains and far eastern mountains of SW VA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 VAZ001-002-006-230400- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.230123T0500Z-230123T2100Z/ Lee-Wise-Russell- Including the cities of Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, and Rosedale 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to three inches, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks. * WHERE...Lee, Wise and Russell Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. And.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-230400- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0002.230123T0600Z-230124T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.230123T0500Z-230123T2100Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches mainly at elevations of 2500 feet or higher. Locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks. * WHERE...The mountains of east Tennessee. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
  19. Carvers Gap
    We had some minor river flooding w/ the winter weather event a week or so ago. Other than that, this is one of the few recent winters where flooding hasn't run me off of my normal running routes. We need more rain in NE TN.
  20. Carvers Gap
    That will work right there.
  21. Carvers Gap
    We were having that discussion today coming out of church. LOL. I think they better hold-on to those days, especially in NE TN. It doesn't take long to burn through them.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Good find. That last sentence is about right. I think SSWs are such a crapshoot. They often send cold to the mid-latitudes. That is one thing that is common. Where is the question for me. I think Boone noted that late season SSWs tend to go into the East. I have little doubt that strat warming is wrecking havoc on model accuracy d7+. As for '89-90, the forum would not have survived that winter. LOL. Lots of great winters have warm spells during the early to mid parts of Jan after early starts....and there are winters where winter began early and struggled to return(last two winters are that for MBY). Jury is still out on whether this winter will join that "quick start...then fade" analog package. As February hasn't occurred yet, no way to know. This winter for MBY is nearly an exact replica of the past two. We didn't get the good stuff that middle and west TN had during the past two winters. We are used to it, so no big deal here. Uncertainty makes this process interesting for me....lots of exactly that coming up. I will add that I am having a blast watching the Bills vs Bengals game - snow.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS changes at 500mb are stark and cold. If it was a run unique to that model, I would toss it as an outlier. I do approach these changes cautiously as Jax mentioned in the Jan thread that Burger was having issues getting data into his site from the GFS...but this is the EPS.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Past that frame the 12z EPS is kicking all of the cold eastward.
  25. Carvers Gap
    D11 changes. That is a long way out there. That said, I am not sure what was ingested by the 12z suite today...but it is cold. We will see if that trend holds. Even the 12z CFSv2 is much colder. 0z and 12z comparison.
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