Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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For me, this winter is a carbon copy of the last three. Chances during December along w/ severe cold. Then, it was a battle from that point onward, but not without opportunities. I think for folks west of the Plateau, this winter (still been better than mine) has been similar to what E TN has seen for three straight seasons. That may be why E TN folks are somewhat apathetic to warmer temps and fewer chances. Taking a look at next season, the QBO should be dropping and that is big. Right now it is rising, and very few good winters in TN correlate to a rising QBO. In fact, most great winters correlate to -QBOs. The wild card is just how strong that Nino is going to be. If it is a super Nino, my winter forecast will be AN(or much above) for the entire season. If it is a weak Nino, then we have chances during Jan-Feb especially. What I am excited about is that summer should not be hot and dry like it was w/ La Nina. On the negative side, that could mean that spring will be delayed. I am hopeful that the cold gradient laid down by three straight Nina winters will help to accentuate Nino climatology instead of wash it out as the previous Nino was. Also, I do suspect that we see an increased number of -NAO years, including next winter. That is a good combination as the NAO emphatically gave us our coldest part of the season this winter. As for the rest of winter, I think we have chances next week. Then, we see a BIG warm-up. See the very first post of this thread. It shouldn't be a shock. Of comfort, sometimes when I call for a big warm-up...it does the opposite. So, I am not changing my tune and maybe we get some reverse mojo. I do think we have one last window from the last week of February through mid-March...then a full on break towards spring.... -
One thing I will note is that modeling has overestimated the cold in the eastern Plains. That mid Jan warm-up maybe lessened the snowpack there, and I wonder if that has something to do with that. Friction (caused by low snow cover) will just eat a cold air mass alive.
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Even the MJO is in flux city. It seems like overnight modeling kind of leaned towards the Euro which has less warm tour and a quick return to phase 8. But I remember looking at a CPC threats map for the western Pac - and phase 4-6 is lit w/ a typhoon if memory serves me correctly. I think we will need to (to reference Cosgrove) have a strong front runner, enough spacing to drive the boundary behind it, and then a storm behind it once past Feb 5th. Going to need a 1-2 combo after this over-running slop fest.
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I mean w/ 100 yours to go...modeling is still not totally dialed in. Take a look at the cold air anomalies with each run...they are all over the place. Some runs are warmer, some aren't.........Just when I think it is trending in a predictable manner - u-turn. The GEFS still continues to bang the drum for west TN ice - three impulses to be exact.
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Memphis mentioned time of day as a driver. The bigger issue is a boundary that presses south, goes back north, and comes back south. Throw in time of day....I mean, good luck to models and forecasters hitting that. LOL.
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Again, sometimes I just don't post if it is more of the same......my interests are medium and long range forecasting. When it gets in the short range...I generally bow out. Go look at many of the other threads. I post some and usually in flurries...but once it is in close...I will post less. Also, since E TN is less involved(many original founders of the forum are from there), middle and west are left to carry the load. But yeah, PLENTY still to talk about. It may go poof(I am not seeing that yet), but below is the CMC. I think we are going to see a hot mess from the West Bank of the TN River to the MS. It could press eastward from that point as well. Modeling is all over the place right now. I also tend to post fewer maps when pretty much each deterministic run is different from the other. Maybe a slight trend northward today.
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Nah. 12z update.... The CMC is a pretty bad ice event for middle and west. The GFS is a nice 2-4" slider for much of the state north of I-40. With so little agreement....I think we are all just chilling and waiting for some agreement. Here are a few snapshots. The models are consistent within their own runs but now with each other....
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As a follow-up to the Euro Weeklies last night, I am beginning to think that is an outlier run as generally all global ensembles have a decent warm-up mid-month. Now, it is likely going to get cold again after that, but a warm-up now appears likely. The real question will be the permanence of that eastern ridge. Does it roll through or set up shop? The Weeklies say it is temporary, but IDK. We will see what the MJO says. One positive note, the STJ appears to remain quite active. That alone could give us some thread-the-needle chances(even during a warm pattern) just due to the frequency of precip and shortening wavelengths. Very Nino looking pattern IMHO.
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Morning discussion out of Memphis: A split upper level pattern will prevail during the early to middle part of next week. The southern branch of the upper jet will extend from the southern plains through the Midsouth and Ohio River Valley. Concurrently, the northern branch of the upper jet will extend from the southwest Canada to the Ohio River Valley, where it will consolidate with the southern branch. At the surface, a 1036mb Arctic high will drop into the Central Plains Monday night, with the leading edge of this Arctic air enters the Midsouth. Precipitation chances will increase through the day Tuesday, as southern branch wave lifts into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Thermal profile from GFS and ECMWF sounding depict a mixture of freezing rain and sleet possible north of I-40 Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Forecast confidence begins to wane a bit by Wednesday, due to increased model spread. Discounting the much colder Canadian model outlier, it appears that the Arctic airmass will modify Wednesday afternoon, under low amplitude ridging aloft. This may result in a transition to rain over northern portions of the Midsouth, but this may be short-lived. Temps will likely fall below freezing north of I-40 Wednesday night, as more precipitation arrives, associated with an ejecting southern branch shortwave. Confidence in precipitation type is lower with this second wintry event due to model differences in the Arctic airmass position and strength over the Great Plains.
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Let's see where we are this evening at 0z. If west TN is still looking at wintry precip being modeled, probably time to create a thread for them. All three deterministic models have very different placements for the anomalously cold air mass, and even with 100 hours to go until the first wave of frozen precip, solutions vary significantly. The 6z GFS is without some of its cold source again. Looks to me like the CMC and GFS are a hair warmer.
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And then look at the 30d 500mb map from the Euro Weeklies...not an exact match but you can see what they have that analog heavily weighted.
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I have been digging through analogs....Feb 1994 and 2011 have some resemblance to LR modeling.
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Main thing I see is AN heights over Alaska and a very cold NA continent. There are some AN heights over the pole.
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The pattern on LR modeling is volatile w/ a lot of variability - nothing locks in. Way more variable than what we have seen this winter due to shortening wavelengths. Also, JB mentioned the MJO signal typically has less impact later in winter....I may have misheard or interpreted that.
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Yeah, Nino springs are often COLD! I would think the mountains will see snow deep into spring if true.
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Maybe the best I can do is heights over Alaska are AN. Overall, the continent is just cold regardless of the pattern. The MJO may well just make it less cold here. IDK.
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JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling. MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan). Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE. I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies.
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I am not convinced that tonight's Euro Weeklies are correct....It looks to me like convection is about to fire around Indonesia if the CPC is correct. That should lead to the MJO warm tour mid-month, but the Weeklies are having none of it. They are basically BN for temps for the next 46 days. I will hold with the idea that a warm-up is coming mid-month. That seems about right, and fits with Indonesian convection. That said, there are some rare examples where it stays cold despite the MJO. I am thinking 94 or 96 (Jan-Feb) did that. I can't remember. If someone remembers, let me know. JB had a great post about this tonight.....
