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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    So, two things I could have done to help us...predict a warm-up and put up the hoop house. I have been looking at NA temp anomalies, and they are not warm for most of the GFS run. The SER tries to flex per the MJO, but I do wonder if the cold is going to push into the east more than LR modeling is sensing. A great example(no idea if it holds), is the GEFS finding another cold front around the 11th. This is right around the warm-up I as talking about. If it snows and is cold during this time...you can send me a Christmas card. Run2RunChange from 12z to 18z.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think I have been in Knoxville like 3x during the past 5 weeks! LOL I like Yassin's in West Knoxville. Anyway, I look at real estate in Roan Mountain regularly. That is where I want to be. Wears Valley is awesome though, and I watch that market as well. The Harmon's Den area(Beauty Spot) to Del Rio is a good area for snow. I would like a higher elevation farm.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Great insight. For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville. I am getting ready to send one to UT next year. I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s. Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV. Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville. Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation. Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring. Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate. The rain shadow up here is what is the worst. Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Backend winters due to El Nino are almost unbearable. The pattern is usually terrible in December, and then it flips cold overnight sometime during January. We have been spoiled by some nice, cold(sometimes snowy) recent Christmases. If it is a super Nino, we will know by late summer or early fall I think. And if it is a super Nino, I will be the first to put the brakes on an speculation of a cold winter. The non-winters I have experienced are almost all exclusively super Nino winters. I am talking no measurable snow, lots of rain, and mowing lawns all winter. If the Nino is weak w/ the QBO dropping...that would be good.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, agree. I don't even know if there has been 4 straight Ninas since modern records have been kept. I don't foresee a fourth consecutive La Nina. I think its Nino...just the degree of the Nino is the question.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Just to add, NE TN climo goes to about the first week of March...then drops quickly.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I would add that Nino summers(edit) tend to favor fewer extended heat shots, cooler fall temps, warm Decembers, and winter showing up sometime in Jan into Feb. If forced I would write a forecast something like this. Sept-Oct: Seasonal temps w/ early frosts Nov: Seasonal to AN w/ maybe some early snow showers December: AN to much AN / Calls for winter cancel will be in full swing by Christmas Jan: AN but w/ chances for snow as the month progresses...coastal regions will be in full meltdown Feb: Seasonal to BN / folks will be asking where spring is?...coastal regions will celebrate their patience in waiting for the snow Snow(always a crapshoot): Mountains (AN), Plateau (normal), E TN normal to slightly below(much below if super Nino), middle and west TN (below normal) Precip: Build an ark ***This is going to change. If super Nino...AN temps across the board and only the mountains normal to above for snow***
  8. Carvers Gap
    And you can just about take this to the bank, when I talk about a warm-up...the next run of the GFS is gonna send the entire Arctic house. Behold the 18z GFS.
  9. Carvers Gap
    If we go super Nino....very low chances and worse than this year. It will depend on the strength of the El Nino. We need it week. As Boone noted, strong signals for either ENSO are no good here. One thing which is in our favor will be the likely downturn of the QBO index. I think the La Nina will probably reset the gradient in the Pacific. We want the difference between the Nino waters and the rest of the ocean to have a strong gradient. We lacked that last time around. With 3xLa Ninas, it should be much improved. The scales for snow tip to eastward locals most likely.
  10. Carvers Gap
    They are flirting with a very fine line.... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 424 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Cloudy conditions will prevail through the evening hours as light rain moves across north Mississippi. Rain should increase overnight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Precipitation will return to the Midsouth Monday night in the form of freezing rain along and north of Interstate 40. Icing potential will continue, reaching as far south as northwest Mississippi Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Rain will move through the region this evening into early Monday. The area will catch a small break Monday before the first chance of icing for the Mid South Monday night into Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly cooler for Monday night through Wednesday timeframe. With that being said, the most likely scenario is that there will be two distinct chances for icing over the Mid South through Wednesday. The first of which will be Monday night into Tuesday morning as a subtle wave moves across the region. The best chances for that icing will be along and north of I-40. Ice accumulations less than a tenth of an inch will be possible. Now, with that we will catch a break in the precipitation on Tuesday during the day...and depending on ow far south the initial cold air surges will be important on how far north and how much melting occurs for the first shot of ice. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s area wide and the freezing line will dictate impacts to roads and other infrastructure for the next shot of ice Tuesday night into Wednesday. This chance has the potential to be the bigger threat as heavier precip will move through overnight when temps are at their coldest. Models have trended south some on this possible band of ice in the forecast and would include Memphis metro and possibly into northwest Mississippi. Accumulations Tuesday night into Wednesday could reach up to 0.20 inches of ice. As far as winter weather advisories and warnings are concerned, we will continue to evaluate the situation as the duration and the two distinct shots of ice make this difficult as to not have a watch out for several hours before any impacts. Winter weather advisories will be needed, and there is a non zero chance of a winter storm warning being issued. Stat tuned to the forecast for any changes. The good news is that we should be above freezing on Wednesday and that will allow for melting of any ice to occur. The southern branch upper low will weaken and pass through the Arklamiss region by late Thursday evening, pushing the downstream warm conveyor belt and associated heavier rainfall into Alabama late Thursday night. Milder temperatures should return to the Midsouth by next Saturday, ahead of progressive open upper level trough.
  11. Carvers Gap
    In addition to soccer...track and baseball could well suffer. Last year, spring was super late. I had stuff in my garden that was 2-3 weeks later than normal in terms of production. I want winter out of here come April, and that includes freezes. Frosts are no problem. Ground temps are the issue with late springs.
  12. Carvers Gap
    It coincides with the MJO going 4-6. The bigger issue is that it continues back into cold phases. So, false spring...and then multiple freezes and winter like temps. We really look for spring when the PV begins to tighten up and retract the jet. I don’t see that yet as the West is still cold. As Cosgrove notes, one big storm buckling that jet would send it later this month.
  13. Carvers Gap
    FYI. There is a crap ton of sleet north of that ZR line. So, NW TN (light pink) is actually heavy sleet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 18z RGEM compared to 12z. Newest run is on the left...
  15. Carvers Gap
    I don't think it will jog that far, but I never say never regarding trends. The 18z GFS is now bullseye for Memphis. Time of day is really important. I think that is why E TN is not involved right now. Even SW VA and NE TN are not out of the woods with later waves. I will be surprised if WWAs, at the very least, are not issued for west TN by tomorrow morning. I don't see an afternoon disco yet for Memphis. So, they may be coordinating w/ other NWS offices right now. The numbers for 18z modeling are fairly stout. It may be there isn't a northward jog at all, but just the northward expanse of the precip shield filling in.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z short range modeling is now very consistent (and still going a tic southward) with several waves of sleet, ice, snow and ZR for middle and west TN. Edit: slight tic northward for the RGEM and NAM
  17. Carvers Gap
    Well, eventually we run out of room as it flips to met spring during March. With changing wavelengths and a tendency for lows to go south of us right now on modeling, I think we have some chances down the road. Looks like this week could be a busy week anyway for everyone from the Plateau westward. The MJO favors one more rotation through cold phases later this month. I would think that is likely the last window barring a one-off spring storm which could happen. But trust me, when this hoop house goes up this week or next...it is going to snow IMBY sooner than later. It is more dependable than thunder in the mountains.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I put my seed order in...and am going to put-up my small hoop house. I can promise you all, when the hoop house goes up....it is going to snow.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The promised mid-month warm-up is real. Still a decent signal we rotate right back into 8-1-2 at the end of the month and for early March. I need to go read Cosgrove from last night....be right back. Yep, the warm-up fits with his comments.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC and ICON are still keying on some energy around 160 which has the potential to be a Miller A.
  21. Carvers Gap
    As a follow-up, Eastman Chemical noted a lower than expected, fourth quarter earnings report specifically related to the cold snap during December. It had a 20million dollar impact..... https://www.timesnews.net/business/eastman-reports-financial-struggle-in-fourth-quarter/article_8d7e257e-9e68-11ed-b49c-4b76ef00f3fc.html
  22. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good model consensus for a light icing event. On some modeling it is worse. Both Nashville and Memphis have good write-ups this morning about it. Trend overnight, as Holston mentioned, is south. Models are feeling that cold air parked over the top. My guess is that at some point it begins trending back north at the last minute - that is normal. Memphis mentioned that ice storm criteria have not been met. However, I would suspect WWAs might be posted if models continue to lock in.
  23. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, a Miller A is on both the CMC and GFS at 0z around 180.
  24. Carvers Gap
    0z 12k NAM total ice accumulations. It could just be normal feedback on the short range models, but I thought it was worth a share. We will find out soon enough if they are in error. The 3k NAM is more like 0.1-0.2 ice accumulations w/ a lot of sleet.
  25. Carvers Gap
    0z NAM at range, but that seems a tic south.
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