Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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If it is still there in the morning, it is probably time for a thread. I won't do it now since it is the NAM at medium range, but that is a decent low-end winter storm for middle and west TN. -
I didn't realize the 18z NAM and RGEM were so aggressive w/ the freezing line. 0z NAM is a little more sobered up...but still.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
GBO! -
Here is the afternoon disco from Memphis(modeling trending colder there): Current forecast remains on track for tonight as showers and possible a few embedded storms move into the Mid South. We can expect this rain to continue overnight and through most of the day Sunday especially east of the Mississippi River. Drier conditions can be expected late Sunday through most of Monday...then all eyes go to Tuesday. Primary forecast concern becomes a multi- episodic icing potential for late Monday night through Thursday. Guidance still remains adamant that this will be a Freezing Rain/Sleet event.Rain will develop Monday evening, in association with a low amplitude shortwave passage, and aided by increasing PWAT values. The big question in this event is where exactly does the freezing line set up and how deep/shallow the cold air will be over the region. Latest guidance has trended colder and further south with the cold air and expanded the area of possible ice accumulations. Guidance still has the most likely area of icing just along and north of I-40, but Memphis metro needs to pay attention as the guidance seems to be trending cooler further south. Right now the probabilities of seeing a 0.10 inch of ice across a large portion of the area is 30 to 60 percent Tuesday. It is too early to try an pin down accumulations and locations as this is still very much in flux being 3 to 4 days out, but ice accumulations up to a quarter inch are possible in portions of the Mid South during the Tuesday- Thursday timeframe. Please stay tuned to the changes in the forecast going into next week.
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I am also keeping an eye around 138. If that wave comes north a bit per the 18z GFS, we could see some snow on that northern edge.
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I would attribute much of that to a lack of -NAO winters and a multitude of La Ninas. We need that block to get overrunning in E TN. Now, Memphis and Nashville have scored reasonably well with over-running during the past two years. They broke the snow drought there. E TN has to have help from the Atlantic more times than not. In my seasonal forecast I had NE TN and the mountains BN due to Niña climatology. February is often a warm month even if the tracks are good. The last three winters have been carbon copies IMBY. Knoxville has more snow than I have had during the past three winters I think. Unfortunately, my season forecast (winter spec thread) is probably going to score well for the temp forecast. I simply used ENSO climatology.
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The good thing about the CMC/GFS runs is that they have room to come northwest. Just something to think about. Airmass is marginal, but quadrant(NW) matters.
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Keeping an eye right around the 189hr mark. Long way out there, but modeling has been showing a slp scooting under us and up the coast. Only watching storm tracks for now. It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS. That GFS run had 7-15" of snow for the TRI area. OBVIOUSLY, that is way out there, but just something to watch.
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The 12k NAM at range is also supportive...but it is at range.
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The 12z RGEM and 12z GFS both have an event west of the Plateau...that includes portions of middle TN and most of west TN. The RGEM is at range so TIFWIW. That would include multiple waves.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Great to hear! Should be a great water year for fishing. Yeah, the Salt Range has a multi-day event going on. AT 7000', there are temperature issues, it is just getting precip to those locals. -
There is a bit of a bonus window after 200+. All deterministic models now show the storm track south of us. I still think it is gonna get plenty warm mid month, but their might be couple of bonus days between Feb4-6. I don't think we hit the warm button until after the 10th, then we are gonna have some springlike temps before likely falling back to earth later in the month.
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The 18z GFS held serve w/ a light band of snow w/ one of the waves(same one it has had for several runs). It is maybe 25mi south of where it was at 12z. Generally looks like a band of 1-3" of snow. If that falls during the day, probably a dusting. If it falls at night, accumulations are possible. I haven't looked at the time of day.
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Good to see you posting again, man. March Madness will be coming soon. When UT goes to UK for a game, expect to be cold. Weird teleconnection there.
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For me, this winter is a carbon copy of the last three. Chances during December along w/ severe cold. Then, it was a battle from that point onward, but not without opportunities. I think for folks west of the Plateau, this winter (still been better than mine) has been similar to what E TN has seen for three straight seasons. That may be why E TN folks are somewhat apathetic to warmer temps and fewer chances. Taking a look at next season, the QBO should be dropping and that is big. Right now it is rising, and very few good winters in TN correlate to a rising QBO. In fact, most great winters correlate to -QBOs. The wild card is just how strong that Nino is going to be. If it is a super Nino, my winter forecast will be AN(or much above) for the entire season. If it is a weak Nino, then we have chances during Jan-Feb especially. What I am excited about is that summer should not be hot and dry like it was w/ La Nina. On the negative side, that could mean that spring will be delayed. I am hopeful that the cold gradient laid down by three straight Nina winters will help to accentuate Nino climatology instead of wash it out as the previous Nino was. Also, I do suspect that we see an increased number of -NAO years, including next winter. That is a good combination as the NAO emphatically gave us our coldest part of the season this winter. As for the rest of winter, I think we have chances next week. Then, we see a BIG warm-up. See the very first post of this thread. It shouldn't be a shock. Of comfort, sometimes when I call for a big warm-up...it does the opposite. So, I am not changing my tune and maybe we get some reverse mojo. I do think we have one last window from the last week of February through mid-March...then a full on break towards spring....
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One thing I will note is that modeling has overestimated the cold in the eastern Plains. That mid Jan warm-up maybe lessened the snowpack there, and I wonder if that has something to do with that. Friction (caused by low snow cover) will just eat a cold air mass alive.
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Even the MJO is in flux city. It seems like overnight modeling kind of leaned towards the Euro which has less warm tour and a quick return to phase 8. But I remember looking at a CPC threats map for the western Pac - and phase 4-6 is lit w/ a typhoon if memory serves me correctly. I think we will need to (to reference Cosgrove) have a strong front runner, enough spacing to drive the boundary behind it, and then a storm behind it once past Feb 5th. Going to need a 1-2 combo after this over-running slop fest.
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I mean w/ 100 yours to go...modeling is still not totally dialed in. Take a look at the cold air anomalies with each run...they are all over the place. Some runs are warmer, some aren't.........Just when I think it is trending in a predictable manner - u-turn. The GEFS still continues to bang the drum for west TN ice - three impulses to be exact.
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Memphis mentioned time of day as a driver. The bigger issue is a boundary that presses south, goes back north, and comes back south. Throw in time of day....I mean, good luck to models and forecasters hitting that. LOL.
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Again, sometimes I just don't post if it is more of the same......my interests are medium and long range forecasting. When it gets in the short range...I generally bow out. Go look at many of the other threads. I post some and usually in flurries...but once it is in close...I will post less. Also, since E TN is less involved(many original founders of the forum are from there), middle and west are left to carry the load. But yeah, PLENTY still to talk about. It may go poof(I am not seeing that yet), but below is the CMC. I think we are going to see a hot mess from the West Bank of the TN River to the MS. It could press eastward from that point as well. Modeling is all over the place right now. I also tend to post fewer maps when pretty much each deterministic run is different from the other. Maybe a slight trend northward today.
