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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Very definition of an over-running event if it lasts that long.
  2. Carvers Gap
    For E TN and W NC, there is still some passing interest in the system on Feb 6. Interestingly, when we first starting this forum, Memphis rarely had any opportunities at anything frozen outside of hail. For the second time in three years, an ice storm warning has been posted for the western areas of the forum. I think it is a textbook example of La Nina climatology. I certainly see aspects of El Nino starting to take over, but western areas of the forum getting wintry precip such as ice is La Nina. In the LR, the longwave pattern still looks warm after the 10th(maybe even earlier than that). However, details matter. The 6z GFS portrays a patterns where 2-3 storms press the boundary eastward and cause a system or two to take the low road during the middle of that warm-up. There is plenty of cold air in Canada by that time, so a couple of storms pressing the boundary is a plausible scenario. Again, we are just looking for windows for winter. If Nino is legit taking over, we should see weakness(BN heights) in the SE as a steady pattern. Not sure we are there yet, but that pattern on the GFS is close.
  3. Carvers Gap
    If this comes to fruition, this is a coup for the Canadian RGEM and CMC. They had this from the word "go," and never budged.
  4. Carvers Gap
    .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 00Z model guidance consensus trended significantly higher with respect to ice accumulation, following days of relative stability of depicting 0.1 to 0.2 inches of maximum ice accumulations. Model spread remained less than ideal 24 hours out from event onset, with the Canadian ensemble members on the high end, and GFS members on the low side. Overall, the 00z consensus signal is clear for greater than 0.25 inches of ice accumulation. The WPC Super Ensemble mean showed 0.30 inches for Memphis through Wednesday - among the highest amounts depicted for the Midsouth. For reference, Ice Storm Warning criteria is 0.25 inches. The primary reason for the bump in ice accumulations are the downward trend in temperature guidance through Tuesday night. 2 to 3 degrees makes a big difference when temperatures are near freezing. Higher sleet ratios are expected over far northeast AR, the MO bootheel and far northwest TN through Wednesday. This would reduce forecast ice accumulations below Ice Storm Warning criteria. However, if more than 0.5 inches of sleet becomes likely, areas north of the Ice Storm Warning may be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. As mentioned in previous discussions and in the recently issued Ice Storm Warning, partial melting will be possible Tuesday afternoon, which may relieve trees and powerlines from the ice load that accumulated Monday night. Based on forecast surface temperatures, this partial melting would be most likely to occur southeast of a line from West Helena to West Memphis AR, to Covington and Camden, TN. This includes Shelby County, TN. As always, forecasting shallow Arctic air is a challenge. The official forecasted temperatures for Tuesday morning and afternoon follow the NBM, which was colder by 1-2 degrees than the mean of the NBM ensemble members. In other words, the NBM and the official forecast are on the conservative (cold) side of the model guidance envelope for temperatures Monday night and Tuesday. A second round of ice is expected Tuesday evening, as midlevel subtropical moisture continues to stream into our region from Texas. Low level moisture transport will increase above the shallow Arctic air, under the right entrance of a strengthening upper jet core over the Ohio River Valley. Total precipitable water values will reach 1 inch as far north as the TN/MS border Tuesday night. At the surface, Tuesday night temperatures will cool into the upper 20s along the I-40 corridor, and the mid 20s over northeast AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN. By Wednesday morning, the center of the Arctic surface pressure ridge will move to the upper Ohio River Valley, with near neutral surface pressure and temperature advection over the Midsouth by daybreak. Under building heights aloft, temperatures should slowly warm above freezing Wednesday afternoon over all the Midsouth. As with Tuesday, official temperature forecasts for Wednesday followed the NBM, which remained a 1-2 degrees cooler than NBM ensemble mean. Rain will continue Wednesday night, with some threat of a changeover to light freezing rain over far northeast AR and the MO bootheel. At this time, QPF and temperature trends suggest less than 0.10 inches of ice, before temps warm well above freezing on Thursday. This may need to be addressed in a future Winter Weather advisory. A welcome change will arrive Friday and Saturday, as shortwave ridging aloft brings sunshine, and mild temperatures.
  5. Carvers Gap
  6. Carvers Gap
    Ice storm warnings have been posted for much of west TN, NW MS, NE Arkansas. WWAs all the way to Nashville. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 321 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>003-007-008-TNZ003-004- 019>022-048>055-088>090-301800- /O.NEW.KMEG.IS.W.0001.230131T0000Z-230201T1800Z/ Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis- Lee AR-Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tunica-Tate-Weakley- Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood- Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette- Hardeman- Including the cities of Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Helena, West Helena, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Tunica, Senatobia, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, and Bolivar 321 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Ice accumulations of a quarter to one half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Partial ice melting may occur Tuesday afternoon before freezing rain returns Tuesday evening.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 0z 3k/12k NAM depictions push the ice line southward with each run.
  8. Carvers Gap
    So, two things I could have done to help us...predict a warm-up and put up the hoop house. I have been looking at NA temp anomalies, and they are not warm for most of the GFS run. The SER tries to flex per the MJO, but I do wonder if the cold is going to push into the east more than LR modeling is sensing. A great example(no idea if it holds), is the GEFS finding another cold front around the 11th. This is right around the warm-up I as talking about. If it snows and is cold during this time...you can send me a Christmas card. Run2RunChange from 12z to 18z.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I think I have been in Knoxville like 3x during the past 5 weeks! LOL I like Yassin's in West Knoxville. Anyway, I look at real estate in Roan Mountain regularly. That is where I want to be. Wears Valley is awesome though, and I watch that market as well. The Harmon's Den area(Beauty Spot) to Del Rio is a good area for snow. I would like a higher elevation farm.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Great insight. For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville. I am getting ready to send one to UT next year. I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s. Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV. Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville. Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation. Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring. Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate. The rain shadow up here is what is the worst. Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Backend winters due to El Nino are almost unbearable. The pattern is usually terrible in December, and then it flips cold overnight sometime during January. We have been spoiled by some nice, cold(sometimes snowy) recent Christmases. If it is a super Nino, we will know by late summer or early fall I think. And if it is a super Nino, I will be the first to put the brakes on an speculation of a cold winter. The non-winters I have experienced are almost all exclusively super Nino winters. I am talking no measurable snow, lots of rain, and mowing lawns all winter. If the Nino is weak w/ the QBO dropping...that would be good.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, agree. I don't even know if there has been 4 straight Ninas since modern records have been kept. I don't foresee a fourth consecutive La Nina. I think its Nino...just the degree of the Nino is the question.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Just to add, NE TN climo goes to about the first week of March...then drops quickly.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I would add that Nino summers(edit) tend to favor fewer extended heat shots, cooler fall temps, warm Decembers, and winter showing up sometime in Jan into Feb. If forced I would write a forecast something like this. Sept-Oct: Seasonal temps w/ early frosts Nov: Seasonal to AN w/ maybe some early snow showers December: AN to much AN / Calls for winter cancel will be in full swing by Christmas Jan: AN but w/ chances for snow as the month progresses...coastal regions will be in full meltdown Feb: Seasonal to BN / folks will be asking where spring is?...coastal regions will celebrate their patience in waiting for the snow Snow(always a crapshoot): Mountains (AN), Plateau (normal), E TN normal to slightly below(much below if super Nino), middle and west TN (below normal) Precip: Build an ark ***This is going to change. If super Nino...AN temps across the board and only the mountains normal to above for snow***
  15. Carvers Gap
    And you can just about take this to the bank, when I talk about a warm-up...the next run of the GFS is gonna send the entire Arctic house. Behold the 18z GFS.
  16. Carvers Gap
    If we go super Nino....very low chances and worse than this year. It will depend on the strength of the El Nino. We need it week. As Boone noted, strong signals for either ENSO are no good here. One thing which is in our favor will be the likely downturn of the QBO index. I think the La Nina will probably reset the gradient in the Pacific. We want the difference between the Nino waters and the rest of the ocean to have a strong gradient. We lacked that last time around. With 3xLa Ninas, it should be much improved. The scales for snow tip to eastward locals most likely.
  17. Carvers Gap
    They are flirting with a very fine line.... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 424 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Cloudy conditions will prevail through the evening hours as light rain moves across north Mississippi. Rain should increase overnight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Precipitation will return to the Midsouth Monday night in the form of freezing rain along and north of Interstate 40. Icing potential will continue, reaching as far south as northwest Mississippi Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Rain will move through the region this evening into early Monday. The area will catch a small break Monday before the first chance of icing for the Mid South Monday night into Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly cooler for Monday night through Wednesday timeframe. With that being said, the most likely scenario is that there will be two distinct chances for icing over the Mid South through Wednesday. The first of which will be Monday night into Tuesday morning as a subtle wave moves across the region. The best chances for that icing will be along and north of I-40. Ice accumulations less than a tenth of an inch will be possible. Now, with that we will catch a break in the precipitation on Tuesday during the day...and depending on ow far south the initial cold air surges will be important on how far north and how much melting occurs for the first shot of ice. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s area wide and the freezing line will dictate impacts to roads and other infrastructure for the next shot of ice Tuesday night into Wednesday. This chance has the potential to be the bigger threat as heavier precip will move through overnight when temps are at their coldest. Models have trended south some on this possible band of ice in the forecast and would include Memphis metro and possibly into northwest Mississippi. Accumulations Tuesday night into Wednesday could reach up to 0.20 inches of ice. As far as winter weather advisories and warnings are concerned, we will continue to evaluate the situation as the duration and the two distinct shots of ice make this difficult as to not have a watch out for several hours before any impacts. Winter weather advisories will be needed, and there is a non zero chance of a winter storm warning being issued. Stat tuned to the forecast for any changes. The good news is that we should be above freezing on Wednesday and that will allow for melting of any ice to occur. The southern branch upper low will weaken and pass through the Arklamiss region by late Thursday evening, pushing the downstream warm conveyor belt and associated heavier rainfall into Alabama late Thursday night. Milder temperatures should return to the Midsouth by next Saturday, ahead of progressive open upper level trough.
  18. Carvers Gap
    In addition to soccer...track and baseball could well suffer. Last year, spring was super late. I had stuff in my garden that was 2-3 weeks later than normal in terms of production. I want winter out of here come April, and that includes freezes. Frosts are no problem. Ground temps are the issue with late springs.
  19. Carvers Gap
    It coincides with the MJO going 4-6. The bigger issue is that it continues back into cold phases. So, false spring...and then multiple freezes and winter like temps. We really look for spring when the PV begins to tighten up and retract the jet. I don’t see that yet as the West is still cold. As Cosgrove notes, one big storm buckling that jet would send it later this month.
  20. Carvers Gap
    FYI. There is a crap ton of sleet north of that ZR line. So, NW TN (light pink) is actually heavy sleet.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 18z RGEM compared to 12z. Newest run is on the left...
  22. Carvers Gap
    I don't think it will jog that far, but I never say never regarding trends. The 18z GFS is now bullseye for Memphis. Time of day is really important. I think that is why E TN is not involved right now. Even SW VA and NE TN are not out of the woods with later waves. I will be surprised if WWAs, at the very least, are not issued for west TN by tomorrow morning. I don't see an afternoon disco yet for Memphis. So, they may be coordinating w/ other NWS offices right now. The numbers for 18z modeling are fairly stout. It may be there isn't a northward jog at all, but just the northward expanse of the precip shield filling in.
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z short range modeling is now very consistent (and still going a tic southward) with several waves of sleet, ice, snow and ZR for middle and west TN. Edit: slight tic northward for the RGEM and NAM
  24. Carvers Gap
    Well, eventually we run out of room as it flips to met spring during March. With changing wavelengths and a tendency for lows to go south of us right now on modeling, I think we have some chances down the road. Looks like this week could be a busy week anyway for everyone from the Plateau westward. The MJO favors one more rotation through cold phases later this month. I would think that is likely the last window barring a one-off spring storm which could happen. But trust me, when this hoop house goes up this week or next...it is going to snow IMBY sooner than later. It is more dependable than thunder in the mountains.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I put my seed order in...and am going to put-up my small hoop house. I can promise you all, when the hoop house goes up....it is going to snow.
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