Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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On the super long range front, I have been trying to find a model by week 4 which doesn't have a strong -NAO. That is likely the strat warm stuff kicking in. Still a long way out there, and modeling has missed on this during Jan...but there it is. I said this yesterday, I still don't see Spring on modeling yet. -
I think there is a very real chance that MBY may get more snow after Feb18th than it did prior to that.
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We may be stealing some Nino climatology here at the end of winter. When I look at modeling, there is a tendency for weakness in heights over the SE. It takes a couple of systems cutting to our west, but the boundary (at times in the LR) presses Southeast of us. Fountain has some great posts above. That set-up is likely due in part to Nino climatology.
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LOL. So my youngest daughter was born in Jan of 2013. We took her home from the hospital and just about couldn't get into the neighborhood as rain changed to snow. It was about a seven mile drive. We left the hospital while it as raining and spitting snow. As we got her to the door, the sky flashed and it began to thunder as the snow just poured down. I had left sub plans left at school, but didn't put the early dismissal procedures in the folder as I did not expect this! I quickly called school to make sure the sub had some guidance. Busses were stuck on Skyland Drive here in town. It was a glorious mess.
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Yep....modeling is hinting at phase 8 again(w/ a loop in that phase to boot). It looks like this initiates sometime between Feb 17-21. I would think that is a window(or beginning of a window) for yet another round of wintry temps/precip for our forum area.
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Probably 2013 for rate driven snow IMBY. It caught our schools system by surprise. We had busses stuck everywhere. Yes, crazy run of the 6z GFS. It looked a bit wonky at the surface as it tried to recurve near Hatteras. At 500, it looks clean but is a big break from continuity.
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El Nino winters = winter begins about the time we are ready for spring............just a preview of next winter.
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In the same way that Nina winters find ways not to snow during Jan/Feb....Nino springs find ways not be warm until mid-late May.
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Yeah, that guy runs a great page. He runs StarValleyWx in western WY. It is just a small webpage outfit. I believe he used to work at the Sever Wx Storm Center in Oklahoma. He runs a great website. His webcams are awesome. I am definitely a winter wx junkie! I loosely track winter storms out there just for fun(and I don't post about those).
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And spring is also not on the Euro Weeklies. Around the 21st, it goes cold and doesn't move. Now, to be fair, we have seen it miss badly at this range already this winter. BUT, it fits with the MJO rotation that we are seeing. March looks nasty.
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It is going to feel like spring this week. After the miserable, cold, drizzly weather of last week, the sun feels awesome! That said, I do not yet see spring on modeling. My guess is that it arrives later in March, but the cold tries to hang on as Nino climatology fully takes over.
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Farily substantial differences between the 0z GEPS/EPS vs GEFS. The 0z GEPS/EPS produce a fairly large trough around the 18th. I think differences in the MJO are likely the root of this.
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Going to be a rough next few winters after this exceptional winter out there....just knee high to a giraffe. Here is my webcam go-to.... http://www.camviewing.com/mosaic/
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Next window after the 11th appears to be the 18th-21st. That is based on ensembles, not operationals. Then, the late month/early March cold shot is probably in the works.
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Tough to know. I don’t track severe wx. Anytime there is a lot of warm air and cold air though.....fireworks are possible. The developing Nino likely dampens severe season...but outbreaks are always possible.
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The MJO(which has been stalled in 3....and is still stalled in 3) is set to rapidly travers the warm phases. It then could possibly be in phase 8 as soon as the 19th if the Euro is correct or a week later if the GEFS/CFS is correct. Not sure I buy the slow traverse, but that is what is being portrayed this morning. Meanwhile, the mid-month warm-up still appears on tap w/ cold fronts slicing through the warm air mass at regular intervals.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
That would fit the flight path and timing almost perfectly IMHO. Great find! I am super impressed. People who follow the weather as a hobby...can find stuff at 60,000'! -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wow, I think you did get a photo. Hunter Ward (Asheville Wx) has a potential photo of it over Hendersonville(NC) around 9:00AM. If you snapped that earlier, good chance that is exactly what that is, and it would match the trajectory! -
6z GFS, 0z Euro, and 0z CMC have some sort of winter wx event (light) for next weekend.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well, we have something else to track.... @Daniel Boone, you know if they ever decide to do something about this, it is coming down in somebody's front yard in this forum. ORNL, BAE, and NFS in that flight path. https://fox59.com/news/national-world/possible-chinese-balloon-tracker-where-is-it-headed-next/ -
18z GFS agains looks decent at 180. That is the only analysis I am giving at this range. LOL.
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Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th. If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though. We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well).
