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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And just like that, the 12z suite is a bit more interesting. The GFS has a wave coming out of the GOM around 180.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove mentioned on social media today that he felt like changes were coming after mid-month due to the high configuration in Canada, but that it would take some time. Honestly, to me things are on schedule if not a week or two ahead of schedule for Nino. The only thing that surprised me is that fall was so warm. Also, LC mentioned that the rain returning to the SE was a decent sign that the past regime is changing. Again, things look pretty benign in the short and medium range. I am less bullish on a cold Christmas, but that could easily change. I have seen LR modeling signal very cold Decembers only to have modeling flip after the first third of the month is over...and i have seen the opposite occur as well. And again, this is the time of year when modeling struggles as the turn to winter is going to be not surprisingly late. But man, it is cold out there today!!!!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Modeling has reverted to a bit of a "meh" look during the past couple of days. Again, as we depart shoulder season LR modeling can still fool us pretty easily in the future (both for the good and bad). This would definitely be a year I don't expect a fast start to winter. So, no harm, no foul....
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z NAM shows some light snow showers over the region after the front passes (north of I-40 and Plateau eastward, especially higher elevations).
  5. Carvers Gap
    Maybe it is just Friday night and the melatonin is making me feel good.....but I really like what I see in ensembles today. Lots of changes during the last 48 hours.....
  6. Carvers Gap
    Here is an interesting tidbit from the Euro Weeklies today. The snow mean for the foothills, NE TN Valley, and SW VA is 6-8" of snow for the 46d timeframe beginning today.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that NAOs are probably one of the most difficult features to predict. With the -QBO, we can kind of guess that it will be there from a seasonal perspective. but truly it gets squirrelly to nail down details. Last year, it often hooked into the SER which is not all that common but also not unprecedented. With the predisposition of the ENSO state for a SE trough, I think we avoid that for the most part this winter. Source regions are going to be key. Again, this has generally looked like a backloaded winter on seasonal modeling. A switch to a favorable pattern during any part of December is considered bonus bucks.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Overnight ensembles continue to advertise a decent pattern by mid month. Modeling has been bouncing around a lot, and I don’t trust them at this point. A -NAO is beginning to present itself consistently across global ensembles to varying degrees. Do we have a decent source region for the SE trough? IDK, it doesn’t look like it now. But that could change. Models originally had this pattern in the LR, lost it, and now it is back again. Shoulder season model watching is not for the faint of heart.
  9. Carvers Gap
    ...Or maybe I should say that the EPC control says, "Happy Thanksgiving!!!" Seriously, enjoy turkey day, everyone! The LR ensembles do appear to be hinting at a SE trough by mid-month. The GEFS is less enthused. EPS and GEPS are fairly textbook.
  10. Carvers Gap
    No idea what is going on with the EPF - pretty significant cold bias. Its 0z control run was fairly epic for the SE.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Tough to beat an opponent when they shoot 48 FTs. Officiating last night was egregious.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies this evening look stellar.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS was certainly a more active run....
  14. Carvers Gap
    I was in JC just before 5:00, and a bit of a rain squall came through. The interstate was a bear! Anyway, JC got a good amount of rain at that point. Honestly, I don't even remember the last time I have had to use my windshield wipers.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. That helps with the super scary fire conditions you all were having to deal with. Huge.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I think Grit said it best in the MA forum(or it could have been GaWx or both...I am too lazy to go back and look), the MJO is likely going to fire along the equatorial dateline in the Pacific. Right now, 8-2-1 don't favor a cold SE....but do when we head deeper into winter. We have discussed that some earlier(either this thread or the winter spec thread) that the MJO would be likely be a key driver due to the Nino event(and warming SSTs in that region). Great explanation in the MA forum, and worth a read. The 8-2-1 teleconnects to a warm SE right now, but is much colder when centered on DJF vs NDJ or OND.
  17. Carvers Gap
    As for the Euro...it has been less dependable during recent years. Honestly, it seems to have the same cold bias as the CMC. It is especially bad during shoulder season. The GEFS seems to have a bigger warm bias of late, but......it seems more dependable during shoulder season though. Right now, it seems modeling tried to inaccurately push a polar air mass into the region at range. That could still verify, but looks less likely. And that is more of a Euro bust....GEFS likely scores the win as it appears to have had a more muted intensity and duration for the Thanksgiving "cold" snap. That said, the Euro identified the switch to cooler first if I remember correctly(at 500 on the Weeklies). But models being inaccurate is not unsurprising given that modeling past d8 really is just halfway decent at longwave patterns. A blend of modeling seems to be working really well right now. Nino climatology favors a move to a SE trough at some point between the last week of December and the third week of January. The timing of that is crucial, and modeling seems to be centered on the last week of December, but......modeling has already this year (on at least one occasion) had a similar lock(and I do mean locked-in) at range, and now looks like it will whiff. For now, it is probably better to ride with Nino climatology...and just say a SE trough is likely by mid Jan. Models will often be too quick to remove a warm eastern air mass(especially w/ little or shallow snow cover over the Plains). Cold source TBD.
  18. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS must have gotten a dose of the CMC. Frigid.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Also, bout time for the first thread for winter. We can do it by month(Dec, then Jan, then Feb), or we can just do a winter pattern discussion thread part I, and then restart a new thread when part I gets full(or we need some new mojo). Whoever starts the thread, gets to choose. December starts in 11 days, so we are well within range to start it. One year we had a medium and long range thread, and then had a short range thread for days 1-5. We can do that also.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Anyone have the link for model verification comparisons? It seems like the GFS is busting badly on temps (warm bias), and the Euro is too cold at range. Usually, it is the other way around.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Powell, we will be praying for you all.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I am no expert on middle TN. I do think El Nino's tend to be somewhat below climatology the further one goes west in the forum. It does look like eastern areas should see some improvement during the next 30 days. The GOM is what will break the drought ultimately along w/ an active STJ. It will take some time to recover from this. Right now we need cooler weather and even marginal rain - that will end fire season in its tracks. What we don't need are hot days and low humidity like we have had. I think that is at an end.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Hopefully, law enforcement will be in these areas looking for any mischief. Fire agencies and forestry folks are going to have to be on their toes.
  24. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8. TIFWIW
  25. Carvers Gap
    These discussions are awesome!
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