Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Good overnight discussion. Definitely tracking cold and/or winter wx at this latitude during spring is fraught with disappointment. So, know that before jumping in..... It wants to rain at this latitude for all but about 6-8 weeks per year, and March isn't one of those weeks. But, March has delivered some big snows on an irregular basis. I still want to see the LR window get inside of d10, and weeks 2-4 of March are not there yet. Either way, I am going to start mulching and getting the garden ready. Cold or not during March/April/May....spring is going to show up sooner than later. -
For kicks and giggles, the GEFS(ext) control run. Is it yet another mirage? Possibly given recent misses. Hopefully, we don't get all dressed up for nothin'...William Wallace
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The 18z GEFS is textbook SSW. It is about 2-3 weeks after the main strat warming. I think (famous last words) the trough gets kicked eastward. Honestly, I am not a huge fan of cold springs...so I am not overly fired up about it! Cold springs equal bad early growing seasons for gardeners. I think we will see a short spell of the eastern ridge hooking into the trough, but eventually incredible amounts of HLB overwhelm the pattern. Still in the range where it could be a mirage, but this looks decently legit at this range............If true, major changes coming in our weather pattern.
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If someone want to start a March, April, May spring thread....go for it. Preliminarily here is my forecast for spring Temps: March: normal to BN April: BN May: BN Precip: AN all months Snow: Potential for multiple heavy snows in the Apps. Crapshoot int they valleys but not a zero chance deal. Could be rough for people through-hiking the Appalachian Trail. Note: I will give models another week before finalizing this.
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Right now I am trying to find a "warmest model" for March....and I am having trouble finding one. The GEFSext and CFSv2 are cold. They may not be snow cold. But they are certainly loaded with cold rain and likely elevation snows. When I see the map in California, that tells me that one good amplification can send cold into areas where it usually isn't at this time of year. Cali is the ying to our yang.
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Well, March 5th is 13 days out right now...so we have a ways to go. The LR continues to look pretty much awful(cold) for a lot of March. For kids in spring baseball, soccer, and track...that forecast pretty much is the pits.
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Man, the winter storm along coastal areas of southern Oregon and Northern California is going to threaten records of all sorts - snow, record lows, etc. Go read the AFD for Port Orford, Oregon. It is crazy what is going on. Seeing Southern California w blizzard warnings (foothills of LA) is mind bending. What a crazy, crazy, crazy look when you look at all of the WSWs and WWAs posted in some not so normal places in California. Amazing stuff. Don't miss it. You won't get to see that often on a wx map. BTW, the record highs we either threatened or breached today were from 2018....take a look at March of 2018.
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Yeah, teleconnections are nasty for the last 20 days of March. I still want to see if they verify. Lots of mirages of late have not transpired. But that is one chilly pattern lurking if it does. I see three scenarios right now: 1. -NAO stays over Davis Straits, and it gets cold here. 2. The -NAO shifts to the Hudson Bay, and the EPO ridge pops - very cold and stormy here. 3. The -NA) shifts to the Hudson Bay an the EPO ridge stays off shore just enough to send the cold into the nation's mid-section and front range of Rockies....different set-up to today's weather but same outcome(warm east). Right now I strongly favor options 1-2. Nino is gonna have to win-out for that to occur. If options 1-2 occur, the storm track will be vastly different than the past three months with lots of systems to our south. We will see. This look is kind of a long, last gasp of winter.
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Both the 12z CMC and 12z GFS looked decent for middle TN on March 4th - Holston mentioned it. At the 10 day range, that is about all I would comment on it. Likely will be different next run.
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Still there on the 12z GFS and CMC. May have even moved up a bit. I just don't talk much about it as details will be sparse at this range. I usually will set a window, but won't talk specifics until around d7 if it materializes. The 12z suite so far show some potential, but that is a LONG way out there.
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Rare winter storm warnings for the Southern Oregon Coast and Northern California Coast! Coos Bay and Port Orford are under WSWs. Blizzard warnings are also up in the mountains immediately outside of Los Angeles. RARE but not unprecedented. I don't remember seeing blizzard warnings in the mountains above LA. Take a look at the advisor map for California. I have not changes to my thoughts this point about weeks 2-4 of March. The block looks real.
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12z CMC isn't far from it. Trackable window weeks 2-4 of March it appears from a distance.
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Really enjoying the next 7-10 days of weather...cause what is coming after that is possibly not going to resemble spring. Models at 12z are finally catching-on to a monster NAO that is going to do its very best to dislodge part or all of the trough in the West. That may have zero to do with snow, but it could have a lot to do with a very cold pattern setting up between March 5-10th and may have some duration if the Weeklies and CFSv2 and MJO plots are correct.
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An interesting thing is a westward moving cyclone heading across Madagascar into Africa. That should light-up phase plots 1-2 on the MJO, and that might be what LR models are keying upon. Cosgrove mentioned the storm, and I am extrapolating out from that. However, it may be a bit too far south to impact MJO phases as those are more equatorial-centric.
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I think we are seeing the impact of El Nino slowly beginning to take over. Honestly, I will be interested to see if the pattern actually comes to fruition. However, this looks a lot like the December cold outbreak 2.0(light). I agree w/ BNA who mentioned that March is similar to December in terms of snow expectations. After about March 20th, it is very difficult to get snow in the valley. Pretty much all storms would have to arrive at night. I would think heavy mountain snows are likely IF the Weeklies are true. The pattern verbatim is a Pisgah special.
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If one looks at the drought/good water year cycles in the Mountain West....they cycle pretty regularly. If they had great water years every year, there would rarely be a fire season.
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Don't know that I agree w/ him on that. The PDO cycle is connected w/ the Nino/Nina cycle. The current PDO is coupled nicely with the current Nina. The cold water along the equator is coupled with the cold waters along the eastern Pacific Coast. When it flips back to warm water along equatorial Pacific, it should flip to warmer along the eastern Pac Coast. With more Nina's this past decade, the PDO has been predominantly in Nina phase. Now, if he is saying we are in for 50 years of La Ninas, he is going to have to show his work on that.
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Looks to me that the winter will end the way that it started. Potentially, the NAO will be partially hooked into an eastern ridge. At times that set-up will wane, and the cold pushes eastward. The PDO has been driving the bus for the past three winters. Take a look at the new learning thread as a reference. That is why the trough keeps dropping into the West. It is like a magnet. That "should" be less or completely reversed by this time next year. The NAO setup is not yet sorted out.
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NAO is still a significant feature in LR modeling this morning. Could it hook into the eastern ridge? It could per the GEPS and GEFS. We have already seen precedent for that this winter. Could it prolong winter per the EPS? It could. Or it could do both. Stay tuned.
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Definitely have seen some good looks at d10+ not materialize. For now, I like the combination of the MJO/SSW/possible -NAO. That has been the combination that has brought cold this winter. But for sure, we want to see it inside of d10 before getting too invested IMO. I think this is only my fourth post today....so I am pretty dialed back on this! LOL. I do like the ensemble looks today.
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I would say the odds of a late season, coastal winter storm are increasing. That does NOT mean it is going to snow here. But that NAO is a boomer. It would highly likely suppress the storm track. OTH, it also could hook into an eastern ridge - LOL!!!
