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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man. LOL. -
I think the atmosphere is starting to reflect Nino even now. Great stuff as usual, Jax.
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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The mid-term cold is less of a question for me know. The 500mb is on schedule to change as are temps around the 11th. The can kicking has been hours instead of days/weeks. The question for me is whether this is a 10-14 day cold shot or a true 4-6 pattern shift. I lean slight towards long term pattern shift. Why? Nino climatology supports the colder SE for spring. The CPC maps have changed little from the ones I posted earlier. So, the cold has support from pro forecasters and not folks who do this as a hobby. I wish I had better news for people who need a warmer spring, including me. Maybe that will change, and we will see a balance of warm and cold says vs base cold. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 6z GFS looks like a winter time pattern with HL blocking. If I didn’t know the date, I would be more excited as I know seasonal climatology is going to be fighting us. That said, it is worth nothing that March can bring surprises and storms often over perform compared to modeling output. I would be pretty fired up if I lived in tbe mountains. Models still look solidly on board for a 10+ day period of cold whining just before mid month. It could be longer than that. Modeling has tended to overestimate staying power for cold during the past several months, so I am starting with that timeframe. The potential is there that this pattern is base cold w/ warm interludes for much of the second half of March through mid-April. This is a pretty big pattern shakeup at 500mp. If this was mid-winter, this would be the golden ticket....but again, seasonal climatology is going to fight this every step of the way(must be important if I say that twice. LOL). Still this is likely going to be a sharp change from the early summer temps that we have experienced. If a storm cranks, a killing freeze is easily on the table. As we noted earlier...whatever is most miserable is likely. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
That is the driest fall I ever remember. You could have walked across the North Fork of the Holston up here w/out getting your feet wet. (Today it is nearly at flash flood stage). I was sitting at a youth basketball game, and someone told me Gatlinburg had embers dropping into the middle of the city. I thought, "No way." I hustled home and watched Knoxville TV channels that night. I was just stunned. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
For those willing to do some digging, the Euro control run at 0z....that was interesting. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
If you are here looking for a professional forecast, I suggest you have come to the wrong place. If you are not laying out your own ideas and just going, “I told you so,” you have definitely come to the wrong place. But if you are here to learn, to take risks, have fun , and enjoy weather...you have come to the right place. This is a place where we risk being wrong in order to get better - that is the only way to get better. The “I told you so” stuff needs to go in banter. Otherwise, we are going to have unreadable threads - go look at the MA. As for the cold, still looks highly likely as the long wave pattern which will deliver it looks reasonably locked in. The question is which storm brings it? At 18z, the GFS cut the storm on the 10th too far to the West. It jumped on the next system. IMO, this is just a matter of “when” and not “if.” You won’t hear me say that often. The December cold had the same issue. And that can all change as we don’t control any aspect of the weather. We can only predict. Shoulder seasons are easily the most difficult times for modeling. I won’t be posting a ton today as Saturday has its own responsibilities for me. So, don’t mistake my absence for a change in tune. -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The wind 100% met MRX forecasts in western Sullivan County. The worst of the wind came after the storms. -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
TRI has recorded a gust of 49mph there. We have easily hit that here. I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't sustained at 35-40mph. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Remind me what happened during that March? -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sounds like a freight train driving by outside. Wind is howling. -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Assuming that person is ok, that power line likely saved their life. Unbelievable to see it holding up that tree. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Van Gough had a time when he painted only in blue. In honor of @tnweathernut, I call this "Spring Before Winter." -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I want to open what is behind door #25. Door #3 is my backup. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The above probably encompasses two storm windows March 1-13 and after March 15th. Decent signal for the SE. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
12z GEFS ensembles. -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
A second tornado warning has been posted w the same cell as above. This one tracks just south of the TN/AL line. -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just released on FB....source MRX. -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
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March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 TNC051-031830- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230303T1830Z/ Franklin TN- 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY... At 1202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Huntland, or 10 miles southwest of Winchester, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Cowan around 1215 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beans Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3500 8625 3506 8626 3523 8598 3499 8595 TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 242DEG 52KT 3505 8618 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tornado warning posted for NE Alabama and SE middle TN .... west of Chatt. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
This March has a lot of elements for a really crazy month - meaning extreme pockets of cold and warm air masses. When those clash... -
March 3 High Wind and Severe potential
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX is banging the drum on social media. They want everyone to be award of the impending line of storms. TRI folks, looks like 5:00-7:00ish. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thunder in the mountains today?....If we can simply say that modeling is going to be all over the place and ignore details, we might be able to find some storm tracks. The Euro takes the system around the 10th and cuts through middl TN. No surprise given the seasonal tracks. It has wrap around snow and is cold. Cold is pretty much on the table as a very highly likely scenario. Here are the last two GFS operational runs. I have no idea which we will see, but that is a pretty interesting couple of model runs for middle to late March. In Strava, they have local legends for running segments. @Holston_River_Rambleris in the running for the local legend if we get snow during March. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Carvers Gap replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, overnight runs across modeling continued the trend of a very active STJ and HL blocking. If this was January, those storms might get sent to Cuba. Because of it being March, we will have a tough time keeping them South of us....but for now, that is what modeling is depicting in general.