Carvers Gap

Well, we have three ensembles now singing the same song. The 6z GEFS joins the EPS w/ a pretty cold look right around March 10th. IMHO, that will last 2-3 weeks at minimum. Since this is March, we should see waves of cold push eastward vs a hit-and-hold. Spring will fight back w/ some warm days embedded. April is showing some signs of being seasonal. Let's cross our fingers. I normally sneak my plants into the garden during the second or third weeks of April. It won't happen this year as the ground will highly likely be too cold due to rain and a cold March. Another late planting season appears on the horizon for gardeners and farmers alike. FTR, I really, really don't like BN Aprils. Seasonal is fine, and slightly AN is preferred.

The GEFS got on the program last night - cold.

That time frame for the Weeklies is bone chattering cold. LOL.

As crazy as it sounds, I have reduced my reading of Twitter weather by about 98%. I left Twitter about 3-4 years ago. I may look at an article if someone shares it. Just too many agendas to drive clicks for individual accounts. I do follow Cosgrove on FB as he does an excellent job of supporting his ideas. I do read JB, because he does a decent job of explaining his ideas, and I use wxbell for maps. I just sort through what I think is accurate or not. This is easily the best place to get accurate weather information. Why? Because not everyone agrees. You get both sides of the coin.

The flip to a cooler pattern still appears largely on track. Ensembles have the first wave of cold arriving around March 9-10. Still 11-12 days out, so much cn still change. For those of you thinking March goes warm, Cosgrove says analogs show a warmer March is expected. That may well verify if the first ten days continue to torch which is likely. Can the last twenty days balanced the books? No idea, but we could very make a run at it. The 0z EPS is most bullish w/ the last five days of its run roughly ten degrees BN. The Canadian and American ensembles are 3-5 BN. The 0z CFSv2 is similar to the EPS. For the record, none of that means snow. But pattern changes are interesting to track, and this one would very likely bring snow to the higher elevations of E TN and W NC.

Wind gusts of 40-50mph expected across the valley this afternoon (eastern valley).

I think this has pretty much been a cutter for some time. That follows the seasonal pattern. I have no idea what the Euro is doing w/ that system. In general, if one model shows a cutter....that one is probably right. As for the pattern change, I don't see any can kicking w/ this. But the weather isn't a train that has to arrive on time or arrive at all. It is gonna do what it is gonna do. Those of us who have been doing this some time, learn to accept that and enjoy the ride. I know some folks are saying the pattern change timeline has moved. Not to this point. It certainly could. I was incredibly clear that the middle part of February was going to be warm....very first post in the Feb thread. The thread title is "Torch or Tundra." We began the month with an ice storm and ended with record highs. So, let's ease up on the can kicking deal. And it may well happen, but LR models have been focused on weeks 2-4 of March....NOT week one. March 10th has been the day for some time. Ensembles still look pretty set on that - give our take a day. Considering that modeling is still 14 days out.....that can change. Maybe one weakness of the forum this winter is maybe not understanding that weather modeling outside of 5-7 days is not great with details, but is pretty good with where AN and BN heights go....and even then, it still busts. Something to think about. And folks, we continue to track weather year round. March is a fun month. I want everyone to hear this -> Anything we get during March in regards to snow(I am talking a dendrite) in the valley is bonus snow. As for Nina winters. We have had some really good ones, and we have had some really bad ones. One key tenet in good La Nina winters is a negative QBO or one that is descending. The Nina this winter had a positive QBO, and that is no good here. Again, the warmth in February should be no surprise. LR seasonal models absolutely nailed this during the early summer of 2022. Sure, there were some head fakes since January, but seasonal modeling didn't budge. This winter was no surprise to me - none. Some winters are total surprises, but this one did almost exactly (IMBY) what it has done for the past three winters. Cold early...increasingly warm after the New Year....then spring comes late.

I would like to voice my displeasure at the cold rain falling on this Thursday. It is making my mulching job not so much fun. @Holston_River_Rambler, the angle on that bat makes me hope you didn't film that in the neighborhood. I thought it was an owl, buzzard, turkey, or eagle before reading your comments!

The Euro is a nice pass on the 12z run. Eastern valley gets just enough of a warm nose. But if we can't have it, am I wrong to hope that it rains in the MA as well since they have complained all winter to the n-th degree?

All fair points. Doubt and questions are part of the scientific process. I think the pattern change is probably legit. There is some good support for it this go around - MJO, -NAO(appears legit), EPO, recent SSW, El Nino favors cold springs, and winter has to break in the West at some point, right? Definitely good points about getting cold/storms inside of d10 - many have been mirages. Both(pattern change and winter storms which don't materialize) can be true for March. It takes huge cold fronts during March to get snow. We could still have a cold March without those big fronts. Seasonal climatology definitely will fight winter storms. That said, spring is crazy and seeing a pattern flip(even if doesn't bring snow) is still a fun event to track. As for next weekend. Man, modeling is all over the place. Like you, I lean cutter and cold rain. When in doubt, go with the seasonal storm track, and that seasonal track has been cutters. The 12z GFS is full blown cutter. The 12z Canadian is almost a Miller A/Slider combo. The 0z Euro had something similar last night. The CMC and GFS don't even look like the are forecasting for the same time frame. They are ~450 miles apart on the storm track. That isn't uncommon at this range, but I do get a chuckle when I see models diverge that much. I definitely want to see the pattern for mid-late March get w/in ten days. IF the ensembles are correct, I think places north of I-40 are in the game(long three pointer at the buzzer...not a quality look but a shot at something). Spring storms often over-perform as modeling often underestimates the power of each system. That is about as cold a look as one can draw up for March. I highly doubt operational modeling has caught-on yet. Ensembles are just now able to catch the leading edge at d14. Is it a mirage? Possibly, but to see the CPC take the bait....I tend to think those pro forecasters there are pretty good and also pretty conservative. To see that forecast at 3-4 weeks from conservative professionals...gets my attention. JB has been absolutely hammering 2018 for weeks. There is some merit to it. 2018 featured a massive flip from a very warm winter which had a brutal cold shote during December at nearly the exact time that we did this current winter. The SSW flipped the pattern. Then we had some good fortune....cold didn't go to Asia. It came to NA. It didn't go west. It came eastward. But I really don't like that analog as it has one BIG difference. This is a third year La Nina, and it was not. That SSW was a triumph of wx modeling. The GFS nailed the strat split from 16 days out. Either way, we are entering the season where we transition from cold to warm. We keep tracking weather even if it doesn't snow - severe, hurricanes, heat, rain/drought. Lots of good stuff to track and enjoy.

The real question I have this morning for myself is whether Holston has started a thread which may well be remembered as one of the great March threads?

CRAZY map. There is a lot going on here.

ETA on the pattern change is about March 10th. Yes, I am still watching the storm on the 4th. The 6z GFS is a cutter, and peculiarly, the CMC and Euro are not. I don't think we have enough cold in place for that storm, but it is still a week away. I am just watching that one for amusement at this point. After the 10th, another story altogether.

Growing confidence that a signifiant pattern change is inbound. It is NOT a lock. But if you think we are the only folks talking about this, you would be in error. This is the 3-4 weeks CPC forecast which was released yesterday. That is pretty bold outlooks at the range! Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 11 2023-Fri Mar 24 2023 La Niña conditions are currently present with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. The Real-time Multivariate (RMM) Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index indicates a robust eastward propagation of the intraseasonal signal shifting from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Pacific over the past 3 weeks. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts generally show a weakening signal during Week-1, followed by a re-amplification of the index over the Pacific during Week-2. The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming and other high latitude variability as well as decadal climate trends.. A blend of the CFSv2, ECMWF, and GEFSv12 500-hPa height pattern forecast, plus a small contribution from the Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) height forecast based on the RMM index, La Niña, and decadal trends, predicts a broad anomalous trough over the central and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Weak positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the southwestern coast of CONUS. Anomalous ridging with above-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted over the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, while below-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Alaskan Panhandle. Most dynamical guidance features near- to below-normal 500-hPa heights over the Hawaii islands. The Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook anticipates a major pattern change leading to widespread colder than normal temperatures over much of CONUS, except for Florida Peninsula where elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures are indicated, consistent with a forecast troughing pattern over the central and western CONUS. The highest probability of below normal temperatures (80-90%) are forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley beneath a strong anomalous troughing. Elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures are favored over northwestern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, while a tilt toward below normal temperatures are likely across eastern Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, supported by decadal trends and most dynamical model temperature forecast tools. The Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook favors above median precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and toward the Northern Rockies to the western Northern Plains, consistent with most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Increased probabilities of above normal precipitation are also favored for the eastern CONUS in association with the troughing predicted over the region. Enhanced probabilities of below median precipitation over parts of the Southwest is supported by most model guidance. Ridging over Alaska favors increased probabilities for below normal precipitation across the State. Above-average sea surface temperatures are currently observed in the vicinity of Hawaii.The SubX MME probabilistic temperature forecast favors above average temperatures over Hawaii during the Week 3-4 outlook period. Dynamical model guidance from the SubX MME shows increased probabilities for above median precipitation over Hawaii with strongest probabilities over Lihue.

If I was a squirrell and saw the LR ensembles this afternoon, it would make me want to go get a crap ton of acorns to survive the winter....I mean spring.

Wyoming road crews are struggling to keep I-80 open. 4' drifts reform right after they open them. The southern coast of Oregon got a very rare snow storm. Since we are basking in the warmth(well predicted by models!), we can enjoy some sights out West. While road closures are not rare in WY, the extend and duration are eye opening. Great photos in this thread of the recent storm in Wyoming. Slammed! Likely some severe runoff issues during April/May/June. \https://www.sweetwaternow.com/wyoming-continues-to-dig-out-of-recent-snow-storm/

Interesting. Yeah, that is pretty bold given that is 8 days out. The 6z GFS is a cutter for here(lost the Miler A look...we can blame WJHL). LOL. I feel less optimistic about that storm (for MBY) than I have. The ensemble indeed looks more like the 0z Euro. My gut says this goes to our west. The Canadian is a full cutter. For whatever reason, I like the window for TRI between March 10-20. That is awfully late for a winter storm, but that window has nice blocking and is cold. Is it cold enough? IDK at this range.

If I remember correctly, Chattanooga broke its all time record high yesterday from 1879. In Casper, WY, they broke one from 1894. Some areas of WY are flirting w/ some old snow records. https://capcity.news/community/weather/2023/02/23/cheyenne-breaks-nearly-130-year-old-record-cold-temp-overnight/

This is the GEFS ext from this evening....We have seen this look before, and it is possible that there is some bias across modeling. EPO/NAO couplet is the sauce if we can somehow find it. Keep in mind that BN temps during March have to be REALLY below normal in order to get snow. If somehow the PV was trapped under that....(not seeing that just yet) but man.

Likely to the last question. Models today are trending colder than yesterday. Still a sold couple of weeks from any meaningful pattern change potential. Lots could change, but the ensembles now have it. So, the cold solutions have moved from the Weeklies to the global ensembles. The potential is there for very cold temps. The CFSv2 had temps twenty degrees below normal. Fingers crossed.

Western half of the state did well in January. Yes, E TN and La Nina winters just don't mesh well. To be fair, some great winters have been weak La Nina's BUT they have a negative QBO component(didn't have that this winter...14 month cycle is in our favor next winter though). We need that coastal component to score, and coastals have been largely absent this winter.

Same. I am going to enjoy looking and tracking this...but 72 hour rule is a good rule at this range in terms of how serious we take it.

This is an example of what we are looking at. This is not the Gospel. We have seen this before and it not materialize. So, again, just enjoy discussing the weather.

Doubtful. Sometimes that can happen w/ Jan/Feb, but pretty rare for March. I think the first week of March should be warm enough to prevent that from occurring, even w/ a potential winter event for week one. I won't discount it, but I don't see massive cold anomalies on that order. It looks cold, but not extreme. There are some extreme runs, but not consistently. It would have to go wall-to-wall to beat Feb as the lengthening of days will eventually rule that roost. Weeks 2-4 of the Euro Weeklies (hot of the press) have a very cold pattern. Early in week 3, departures are ten degrees BN which is significant on an ensemble run...

I would encourage everyone to enjoy tracking, and not to get overly invested in a d8-10 storm. We are simply discussing a storm at range. It is highly likely storms at this range don't materialize. And it is March. But we are going to be discussing and track, so be ready....and don't get too invested at this range. Thanks to Holston for creating the thread. I doubt I have seen the last flakes of snow IMBY. March is probably not going to be worse than any other month this winter - LOL. So, the bar is set very, very low.