Carvers Gap

Kingsport for the next couple of days. 22 for tomorrow night is going to be a problem for plants which have bloomed. Again, this has been accurately portrayed for several weeks by modeling. The only can-kick was from the 10th-11th to the 13th-14th for the cold shot. There will be some warm-ups, followed by more cold for the next 2-3 weeks. NWS hourly forecast chart.

Wind chills tomorrow aren't supposed to get above 32F in Kingsport according to the hourly point and click. Some locations will not get out of the actual 30s in NE TN and SW VA. Winch chills tonight are supposed to be in the upper teens and mid teens for tomorrow night. Those LR models are showing some skill w/ this cold. Current WC at TRI is 38F.

Starting to see some games moved up(UT baseball) and outright cancellations for tomorrow night as wind chills are going to be pretty brutal.

Freeze warnings are posted for the entire forum area tonight. That means at least 2-3 hours below freezing. Temps Weds are morning for MBY are forecast for 21F.

Snow fell on Mt Leconte overnight. Looks like they have been re-supplying the lodge by helicopter during recent days. Helicopter re-supply is a normal thing during spring if I remember correctly. They use llamas during the season.

Pretty strong signal on modeling this morning.

Freeze watches are posted for much of the forum area.

18z Happy Hour back at it again.

I like that stone edging, Powell.

My suggestion, before pruning wait and see what comes back. Holly bushes are as tough as the come. They may just be damaged at the tips of the branches. If you break a branch, and it is green underneath...it prob will produce more leaves. If it is brittle, no good. I found this article....we have had some severely damage plants beginning to show life again. The hollies on the south facing (bricked side) are in good shape. Also, if hollies are established, I can cut mine almost to the ground and they will be 2-3’ high by the end of the season. Double that or more next season. I trim back some hollies to about 12” of the ground and just leave a stump. They bounce right back - those are the hollies with smaller leaves. I did this last season as they go too big....they come back quickly. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/home-garden/2023/01/13/5-ways-to-help-save-your-plants-after-decembers-extreme-cold-snap/69780735007/

Interesting. Yeah, a prolonged bout of phase 8 does imply the water is warming there which would imply Nino conditions are increasing.

This is not the full run either. I noticed that the mean for the 18z GEFS showed a substantial uptick. So, I decided to look at why. Happy Hour is not just reserved for the op. And this is why I won't rule out some late season mischief. P6, anyone?

Yeah, this is the initial trough coming through which kind of breaks the old pattern. This is the very beginning of the new pattern. This is the trough which looked cold at range, but modified as it drew closer. The first shot of truly cold air will be T/W, then a very brief warm-up, then more cold air. Wash, rinse, repeat. This is a base cold pattern where the cold comes in waves. Probably is a warm-up and rain pattern. That said, this is a the type of pattern which can spin one up...I don't see that at this point, but the trough east of HI is generally a good teleconnection for EC storms. This is really a pattern which favors E TN and mountain communities if any storm develops. Again, I don't want cold temps in April. And yes, the weather today as beautiful. I definitely don't like 80s during March. Give me normal, spring weather and I am good to go.

Trough is east of Hawaii on the medium and LR ensembles. That is a signal for an EC storm threat. That is a LONG shot for the valleys, but mountains would be in the game. Ensembles 500mb are not warm.

Multiple rounds of cold during the next 2-3 weeks(maybe longer). The mountains are now under a winter weather advisory. Here is the recipe for misery. Loop back for added effect. Last window for a storm IMHO is when it hits low amplitude.

Light snow is forecast in the mountains tonight. MRX mentioned it in their afternoon discussion.

It's Miller Time....18z GFS manages to spin up a couple.

Just having some fun. Huge grains, people.

@Holston_River_Ramblerthat was a good, ol' fashioned NAMing....err, GFSing? Happy Hour rides again.

Models seem to be keying on next weekend. Could be a cutter or could be snow about 2500'. The 0z Euro has it. The 6z GFS has a clean pass beneath our latitude. I think the Canadian had something as well. Long shot but worth watching. Overall, the cold pattern is still on time and formidable. The most recent ensembles remain cold. The operationals are cold. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see them get colder. This morning's MJO even shows realistic potential that it could loop back through the cold phases and do it all again...or even stall at low amplitude in cold phases. For most of us that it going to mean cold rain, maybe some pleasant days in the 40s/50s, and maybe some days where it is raw and windy. Nights have the potential to be quite cold. Could be some big swings between nighttime lows and daytime highs. Misery index could be at times significant for outdoor sports people, especially evening stuff. As for the mountains, snow there is becoming more likely with each passing run. I would even think the Plateau is fair game. NE TN, SW VA, SE KY.....outside chance to see some measurable snow. Mood flakes are plausible. This pattern does have the potential to spin one up. Duration? Cold has rarely lasted this winter to the extent or intensity that modeling depicts. Right now, this "appears" (famous last words!) to be a true pattern change which means 4-6 weeks. Now, that isn't all misery as daytime high averages increase rapidly from this point forward. So, BN isn't like BN during winter....but it isn't overly springlike either. I would think that measurable snow chances are off the table after the 20th for the valleys. That said, if there was ever a pattern to do something strange...this is up there w/ some good ones. I want warmth for April. I have held off starting my tomato and pepper seeds. I know the ground isn't going to be ready by week 3 of April IMBY. I am looking at a later planting than normal - maybe the second week of May. Fava beans could go now though.

I don't think the 12z CMC is correct(will likely trend much more NW), but that is how you get winter in March. Again, looks suspicious to me and is playing catch-up.

Right now I can see three cold fronts: 11th, 13th, 18th. Each gets increasingly BN in regards to temps. It is important to note that average temps are increasing. Temps may stay in the upper 40s to low 50s all month in a local for example(there will be more fluctuation than that...just an example). That temp set gets progressively much more BN as we get later in the month. Make no mistake, this looks cold.

Those are the details that long wave patterns are unable to show at range. Basically we get a cold front which lasts 2-3 days. As that cold decays, we get warm that builds in behind it(rolling ridge if you will). Then the next from rolls through. These cold shots are going to be legit. Pattern still looks very much base cold.

12z GFS is verbatim snow for middle and west TN, but I think this is the normal bias...and eventually during future runs it cuts west w/ snow in Indy and rain for the forum area. It just about has that now. 12z CMC is a forum area event, but I think it is just catching up to the GFS...which hasn't caught up to the western trend this winter. This is not a complaint but just general amusement. It has been amazing to see systems along the coast trend into the Plains all winter. I don't think I remember that being such a huge bias/adjustment across modeling in the past. Again, it is at range, so not surprising to see changes. I just don't remember seeing the same bias play out over and over again. We almost want the system in Bermuda(no hyperbole) at 7-8 days out. Used to the Caroinas would suffice to account for the NW jog! LOL.

Nice look. 6z is decent as well. Kuchera is big. The GFS has had a tendency to start here and end up in Indianapolis regardless of setup. The other two models have it....just east. The Euro is a good look but slightly late. For those just now tuning in...this is about 8-9 days out there, so be sure to know that. That look is 100% going to change. Maybe if I speak in a absolutes, it won’t. LOL. But it will change.