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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I think you all might have a nice winter coming up, met. No promises of course, but the new Euro seasonals look very good for you all and much of NC.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Kind of looking into September (might be time to start a fall thread as well), jury is out on September. Some modeling has the heat pushing eastward for a week or two. The Euro Weeklies control shuts down summer in about two weeks. Mixed signals. So, I would go with a blend....some heat pushes eastward but we see the current pattern hold....trough re-establishes. I tend to roll with John on this one, the worst of summer is likely behind us. I doubt TRI is done with 90s, but this is a pretty established pattern now -> warm pushes eastward...trough kicks it out after 7-10 days. Definitely much more precip IMBY during the past couple of weeks. I am not a huge fan of MCS complexes though - damage city.
  3. Carvers Gap
    E TN would have slightly AN precip. Middle and West TN show BN precip as the winter progresses. Very typical Nino look.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Sign me up. Trough east of Hawaii. Ridge out West. AN heights over Greenland. That equals EC storm track. Cold air supply TBD at a later date. I am sure there are flaws in this pattern below, but that is a very textbook winter wx pattern for E TN. Probably would have to go back to mid 2010s to find a pattern that showed up like this. Mountain West would see a decent start to winter followed by AN temps for Jan and Feb and BN precip - these types of setups could portend a very dry summer out there next year. The Sierra Nevada in California could see another great winter. I almost think they had such a great winter this winter is that they benefited from the Nino transitioning early for their region.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Probably time to fire-up the winter discussion thread(the pre-thread anyway). Who has the mojo? The new Euro Seasonals look really good, and follows a typical Nino 500 heights progression for DJF.
  6. Carvers Gap
    LR forecast in the 3-5 week range have backed-off the warm-up some. Dare I say they look like fall?
  7. Carvers Gap
    The new CANSIPS shows(unfortunately) endless summer through September at least with summer backing off by October. DJF, just eyeballing, looks below normal for temps. Typical Nino progression on the CANSIPs re: winter. The August to early Sept heatwave is typical for Nino years. Let’s hope the model is missing the sharp switch to fall which should occur mid-late Sept....and smoothing likely may not allow for that type of specificity.
  8. Carvers Gap
    My neighbor has a tree through the side of his house. My parents are without power until Tuesday.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Some really bad storms in Kingsport tonight. Just checking w/ the TRI crew after that MCS moved through. Lots of trees down and many, many without power.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Some hints at an early start to winter in the Mountain West...or at least a very cold fall. Lots of variability on September modeling. The great thing about September is that average highs begin to drop quickly. I still think we see a sharp switch to fall by mid-late September. I could easily be wrong. I like looking at the MW region as it can sometimes give a hint to that first truly chill fall air mass. When the cold builds in MT, it will often slide this way(modified of course).
  11. Carvers Gap
    I am gonna start heading to the Plateau for the summer! LOL. Looks like the earlier (cooler) wx pattern from earlier this summer is about to return after a scorching hot week in NE TN. I am just glad that we are counting these hot days in terms of days and not weeks!
  12. Carvers Gap
    I think Kingsport might be one of the hottest place in E TN today. We have to be catching some downslope somewhere. Temps in town are ranging from 90-95F on wxunderground. Real feel right now at my place is 97F. Easily the hottest day of the summer here w/ worse to come later this week. On a positive note, we got a popcorn storm that parked right over western Sullivan/eastern Hawkins yesterday. Amounts ranged from 0.75-1.30" of much needed rainfall. We prob got about an inch of rain IMBY. Two blocks away - zip. That kind of rain storm. I was no fan of the marble size hail. Holston will know this....not sure it even rained at the bridge into our hood.
  13. Carvers Gap
    John, you have been living large this summer. TRI hasn't been too bad either... Mid 90s at TRi for much of the rest of the week according to point-and-click. We have hit 90(and only 90) 6x so far this month. This "should" be the worst week of summer, but LR modeling at the end of August is showing some potential for heat spreading eastward from the Plains. That is not unexpected. My guess is that we see a sharp cold front at some point during the last third of September which just ends summer on the spot. That is not exactly "going out on a limb" as that is seasonal climatology. But after multiple Nina summers lasting well into October, that would be a welcome change.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Ocean temps(lakes as well) can fickle fickle fickle. Wind could have turned the ocean over and created upwelling of colder water. It could just be an oddity within ocean currents. Fishermen will often look for the seam where colder water meets warmer water...even if that seam is a vertical one and not striated horizontally. Water temps are DEFINITELY cool in that area. Interesting share. 81F water is not warm in the summer given how shallow the water is there. https://coastalwatertemperatureguide-noaa.hub.arcgis.com
  15. Carvers Gap
    I came here debating whether to post this. Ha! Ha! Glad you posted it, Jax.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Interesting updates from NOAA today re: winter. Man, if I didn't know better, I would think they are banking on a front loaded winter which is exactly opposite of my own thinking. Interesting. Precip AN for each. Please be award these will change w/ each month, so I will try to delete the post later next month. Here is the link:
  17. Carvers Gap
    I taught his brother. Great family. Awesome song.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Easily the hottest day IMBY. Not sure if we are catching downsloping or what....but it is a furnace out there right now with the wind blowing at 90F. Feels like a hair dryer. Yard is fried. Looking forward to the rain during the next few days. We need it. Thankful for the few days of this that we have had all season.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Finally re-upped my model subscription. This must be what it is like to land a plane during fog. Computer takes over and you hope it finds the runway. Anyway, seasonal outlooks (you all know the drill with seasonal modeling) look the opposite of the last several winters, and that is to be expected given El Nino climatology. Normal to BN heights build into the East during January and February. Jeff has covered the rest of summer really well. Fall, looks seasonal which would be excellent given the "extended summers" of the past few years. As I noted somewhere (maybe this thread), it would not surprise me to see snow flying in the mountains on-time - which means later in October and early November. I still think we see something like a false start to winter, and then December is warm-ish. January and February look to favor Nino weather - cool(not excessively cold) temps and lots of cloudy/rain days. This is kind of the opposite of Nina winters which feature fewer chances for precip but more cold interaction. This is more like more precip w/ marginal air masses - but sometimes we score just due to more pitches in the pitch count. Of note, pretty big signal across modeling for the front range of the Rockies and Plains to fry in regards to temps during August.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Really great stuff from the MA forum and worth a read. Nice animation of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific. Short of it, the El Nino is modeled to be basin wide by the beginning of winter. Well worth a read. Click the light blue header.
  21. Carvers Gap
    This is how crazy this summer has been. We are now to the point that we can say this. The days are getting shorter. Football season is roughly a month and a half away. We can now see fall on the Weeklies(though I can't see them yet as I haven resubscribed - soon though). We can halfway have a decent conversation about even the lead up to winter if one is willing to ignore the micro-scale features and just look at macro stuff like SSTs/ENSO, QBO, PDO, and pick your favorite seasonal teleconnection. So, there is now this to add to the mix...the first, non glacial ski slopes in the northern hemisphere likely open in less than 90 days. This probably more banter, but considering that the forum normally has posts during summer(but way more posters this summer!...are we finally a 12mos forum!?), I am going to post it. Live life to the fullest! But “winter is coming.” At least in Finland. Levi, the nation’s largest ski area, and Ruka, another one of the largest, both plan to open on October 6th, 2023, the first non-glacial resorts in the northern hemisphere to do so. That’s less than three months away. https://snowbrains.com/first-non-glacial-resorts-open-90-days/?fbclid=IwAR1-XFF4RU53BvRAZlrhHupNMOXuta95e6B4UXCq6M1SiBRer2VhqckHpt8
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we don't want an east based El Nino in my opinion...agree. I "think" I read that it is due to shift to mid-basin and west by mid-late winter. We REALLY need the PDO to switch. IMHO, that may be a greatly underrated metric.
  23. Carvers Gap
    About an inch of rain BN for TRI right now. It is isn't "drought dry", but it is getting dry. Hopefully, Thursday into Saturday gets us even again. 90F count for TRI now stands at....two for the summer. It is warm, but man, a nice departure so far from last summer. Let's hope that this weather holds. We are just about to the hottest part of summer....let's see what it does.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Check out this PDO data set, and then look at some of our favorite winters - positive or rising PDO for many of our modern great winters. I do wonder if there is a connection between the drivers for the +PDO and the QBO? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, oddly the current QBO has the potential to get winter started early which is waaaaay against Nino climatology. No idea if it can overcome that, but that drop is quick. We definitely don't want it to bottom out early. I do wonder if it maybe had something to do with that cool June that we just experienced - I have no knowledge about QBO and its correlation to summer temps. I just know that many of our really good winters had it going negative during mid to late fall. PDO is a big wild card as well as mentioned earlier. Need it to push towards neutral and into positive range - key for big winters in E TN.
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