Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Sharply cooler looking CFSv2 (seasonal) today - no idea if right, but winter might get a head start if it is right. I am still holding off on saying his is a pattern change(cooler temps, trough over the EC), but it sure looks like it.
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A good read... https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2023-2024-nc-winter-forecast?fbclid=IwAR2G6SDVxTMqrT4vGJtQz-pDFZOogN57ZgaCfzTfNPG2vSh2S6hGvcDcLEc
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IMHO, the total precip map(to date)above looks remarkably like Nino precip pattern maps, BUT displaced about 200-400 miles eastward. I think I mentioned several months ago that modeling was signaling very dry weather for the middle and western portions of the forum...and that eastern areas should see more rain chances. Right now, all of that is displaced eastward towards the EC. The problem with drought is that it when it persists...it "calls" for more drought. The new CANSIPS is out, it looks to have sharply increasing precip. Winter forecast is similar if slightly warmer...but looks fine. The Euro Weeklies are bone dry for the forum area. VERY worried about dry conditions right now. Any wind event is big time trouble. Late winter, spring, and almost all of summer were nearly textbook El Nino precip patterns IMBY. Lots of rain and cool weather. I am not convinced of the Nina hangover for fall - it would be odd to have 4 months of El Nino(May through August) and have it revert back to a Nina hangover. I am going to do some more digging. My guess is that another driver is also in play in addition to SSTs. Kicking around these ideas: Texas heat dome nearly always pushes eastward...getting ready to transition to a much cooler pattern and the rains are about to return(this might be a blip for eastern areas)...this persists and the winter is colder than I originally thought as sometimes seasonal modeling(which is dry) is picking up on colder temps....just a fluctuation that we cannot predict or even fully explain at this point.
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Truly amazing to see so much red on that map. Great to see the northern end of the Smokies are doing well.
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Growing concern w/ the lack of precip showing-up on future modeling in conjunction with a bone dry September. Hopefully, if we can get this trough in here...that will help. Looks like that is a more of a possibility than it was a few days ago. The QPF is bleak. TRI has 0.83" of precip for the month. Chattanooga has 0.13". TYS has 0.42". I know Jeff and Dwagner have shared some stuff as well, but those numbers are just staggering. Large portions of the TN Valley forum have been added to the drought monitor mix. I suspect more areas will follow. Fortunately temps haven't been terrible, or things could be much, much worse. Need some rain. On the drought monitor, one can see that the EC (east of the Apps) has done reasonably well due to tropical activity and coastal storms. That is a decent Nino signal. The further west one gets, the more dry it gets...also a Nino signal. E TN being dry is definitely NOT Nino-esque. However, the lack of extreme heat in E TN does follow Nino patterns.
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Some sort of southwest monsoon low/GOM tropical system/northern stream mega phase. LOL. That would be one for somebody's book if it ever occurred. I would really have liked to have seen a few more frames just for kicks and giggles. For those new to the site, we are just passing the time right now. Could that happen? Sure. Unlikely? Yep. But fun to look at. Always have to watch early and late season trough amplifications for mischief...maybe not quite that level of mischief though. We sure could use the rain though.
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The GFS had something like that at d16. That model(the GFS) when it throws a wild solution at d16...just never know. After seeing it nail strat splits from d16, it perplexes me to see it so bad at other times. LOL. FTR, I have no idea what is gonna transpire at d10, but to see a potential major trough amplification while the tropics are still active...... I have seen that happen maybe twice....a tropical system get snared by an actual true cold front. Sandy might have been one. But with a BIG ridge in front of that cold front, something could get pulled into that...........if indeed any of that is real to begin with. The CMC is flirting with some kind of crazy phase. I was just talking about Greenland being so cold on that run. I hadn't even looked at Texas. LOL.
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Folks in Greenland(after looking at the 12z CMC are like, "Yep, summer is over." That is a -46F wooly worm.
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That can't be good.
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The PDO is the headache IMO. It is right where we don't want it. While no indicator is really without flaw, there are conflicts within almost any teleconnection and/or analog package. I have read and looked at varying commentary and forecasts about the orientation of this winter's Nino. Generally, I think it starts east based and moves to basin wide - I "think" that is kind of a normal progression. CANSIPS in a couple of days might give us some insight as its new LR forecast releases Oct 1. The ECMWF will follow a few days later. ENSO can be tricky to forecast even at this range. For me, the 90s had far less snow than the 2010s - lived in Knoxville and TRI during that time. The 2000s saw a return to a little more snow. The timeframe from 2009-2015 was good. Three straight La Nina's in E TN is no bueno for snow IMBY. Again though, the PDO has been a common factor in "failed" winters in NE TN.
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Jeff, I had this written-up before you typed your most recent post, and then had to run before editing. Just now got it posted.... 90s Ninos....we want no part of those. Lots of non-winters during those years with the exception of some big snow events which hit during those warm winters. The problem with those winters is that there were very few Nina winters to reset the SST gradient. It was a warm pool within a warm pool in the Pacific basin. With three straight La Nina's....better chance of a warm pool within a cooler pool. With that we get a more expected response I think. I DEFINITELY share concerns with the stronger Nino numbers forecast for this upcoming winter. I know the drill for strong El Ninos in this forum area. For now, I am rolling with a reset ocean gradient(due to 3x La Ninas) and the MJO to be in actually good phases due to more rain along the dateline due to an expanding Nino event(to basin wide). I don't buy the Modoki scenario, but basin wide by mid-winter seems plausible.
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PDO is a pain in the.... QBO is probably our best hope as we might get periods of blocking which "could" blunt the atmospheric wave events which could follow. The MJO might be in our favor this winter IF the Nino goes basin wide. I would really like to see the atmospheric river hit a sharp amplification in the East....just once. Ok, maybe twice in my lifetime. Strong Nino's general are warm for sure....no argument from me. I am counting on a reset gradient as outlined by TyphoonT many years ago. I don't have many changes to my original winter ideas....gonna roll the dice w/ that! LOL
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The Euro Weeklies control run today has a similar progression, but about a week later. Would make sense that the GFS is too quick. Anyway, something interesting to watch. Always an outside chance snow could fly in the mountains during mid-late October above 5000'. October doesn't have a strong correlation to winter in my book, but let's see if that carries into early November. Then, that might gives us a hint. Really, we need rain in NE TN. I do concur this fall does resemble La Nina after the summer and late spring were strongly El Nino-esque. Time will tell if this is a pattern change on the horizon or just a blip in modeling or the first cold front which is just passing through....Some modeling still maintains a warm pattern. As Holston noted, the GFS will often catch changes more quickly. What changes(if any) are possible is wide-open to debate.
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Interestingly, the 18z GEFS does provide some support for what could be our first real cold front of the season. Whether this is a pattern flip or not....way to early to know that. Sort of looks that way, but shoulder season modeling is not for the faint of heart.
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Looks like 18z has a similar look to 12z. Sitting about d10, there is still plenty of time for that to change. Eerily similar timing to last fall. Very concerned about the dry wx.
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When you hear us talk about a break in continuity....take a minute and look at the 12z GFS and compare it to 6z/0z. WOW! Likely a blip, but those breaks in continuity have to be watched. Let's see if that gains some steam in coming days. That was actually on modeling several days ago. That is a major trough amplification. @jaxjagman, is there a typhoon forecast to recurve?
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Looks like that is the official prelim map which was just released....
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Leaves here are good. I still have one shrub which hasn't recovered from the wind chills of last December. Modeling tends to get really wonky this time of year. I have seen it flip on a dime which I suspect it will in about 3-4 weeks. We are basically in a different pattern than the summer where now the ridge has pushed eastward. I generally give patterns 4-6 weeks unless they lock-in which is tough to do during shoulder season. Changing wavelengths will start shaking things up. And again, the tropical season will stay decently strong through about the third week in October, and then things can change quickly. The reason that tropical season generally fairs better during Nino years is that the ridge is over the East.
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LR modeling has taken a decidedly warm turn since the colder solutions appeared last week. Now, shoulder season modeling is likely not correct. I still think we see 7-10 days of cold temps centered maybe week 2-3 of October. At this point, nothing ridiculously warm is out there as seasonal norms are now dropping. Regardless of temp maps, it is much cooler in the mornings. Temps are +1.7 for September at TRI. Precip is WAY below normal. Only 0.79" for the month so far w/ some precip forecast to fall this week. Only two days this month have had more than 0.10 of rainfall. Drought is beginning to build in the Mississippi River drainage after several weeks(months in some places) of the mid-continent ridge in place. Southern portions of our forum area are now seeing drought conditions. One thing to note about precip patterns during fall. Snow patterns during winter to gravitate towards places which had the most precip during fall - that has been my experience. Dry wx patterns during fall can often portend to dry winters - but that would surprise me w/ the Nino pattern, especially for E TN. Saw this maybe in the MA forum....last time we had a falling QBO and Nino was maybe 14-15. Somebody can check me on that. I haven't verified that.
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First snow map of the season for the eastern foothills and mountains on the 6z GFS. I don't want to hear any crap about the timeframe. I have checked the ensembles, and they fully support this. <sarcasm> The Chatanooga (doesn't get anything) and TRI (rain) teleconnection is in play, so this will verify. Enjoy. .....the torpedoes, full speed ahead.
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WxBell. I usually take roughly May to July off..then re-up the sub then.
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M70, modeling seems to be picking-up on a cold shot during the week 4ish range. This would be a legit cold shot. I was just too tired to write about it. Flash, LOL, I haven't even looked at the 500 maps. During non-winter months my "scientific approach" is looking at an animated temp map - sometimes anomalies and sometimes just actual temps. Both the Euro Weeklies Control and CFSv2 are showing the first real cold fronts of the season. The CFSv2 is predictably quicker (week 3) and the Euro Weeklies Control is during the week 4 timeframe. That would coincide potentially w/ the tropical season ending.
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LR range is a little more interesting today.....
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Of note, leaves here have started changing really early...been going on for a couple of weeks. Now, that doesn't mean a quick trip to TRI is in order. This is just initial stuff where the sycamores begin to change along the rivers, early maples, and dogwoods.
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It is pretty crazy how modeling is flipping around. At one point, it looked like the ridge was locked over the East(remember the crazy hot temps which didn't verify?). Then, it put the ridge in the West(bellied a ridge in the East under a shallow trough). Now, modeling has the ridge shifting back east, maybe centered just east of the MS. My overall thoughts remain similar (maybe the same) to the post just previous to this one. Just wanted to comment on how back-and-forth modeling has been lately. I will add that Ninos have los of Tropics action, and there is a reason for that. That reason? Ridge along the EC. As noted above, when the tropics begin to subside that is likely a consequence oft troughing beginning to nudge eastward. For now, climatology has been nearly perfect w/ the eastern ridge timing. There was a spike in activity in early September which coincided w/ warm temps over the east. The ridge backs down, and cooler air rushes in. If climatology holds, we see a second peak in activity during the second or third week of October which likely coincides w/ a building ridge here. The October ridge might be a hair early this year.
