Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,659

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    81% humidity while out running this morning. Woof!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the streak is over at TRI as well. We hit 90 for an hour or two yesterday. Given how oppressive last summer was, it still doesn't fell hot. It looks like we still have 4-5 more days until the pattern "moderates" next weekend. What we don't want to see is an established ridge over Bermuda. I don't see that yet. However, given the frequency of hurricanes during El Nino years later during summer, one has to think some sort of EC ridge establishes which will let tropical systems move towards coastal areas. But really, I don't have a crystal ball. Right now, the pattern appears to be BN air masses moving from Canada into the eastern 2/3 of the United States w/ intermittent strong AN air masses pushing out of the SW and/or Texas. But really, I can't complain at all about the current weather pattern. In 14-15, during winter this was the pattern during January and February. Replace MCS w/ northwest flow...it was glorious here. Easily, it was the most snow I have seen outside of 85-86. I doubt this continues into next winter, but......the pattern that we just exited(Mountain West winters) seemed to last for nearly 8 years.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 73 here at midday. Lots of rain this morning. We had some thunder, but nothing like what points west did(John and Knoxville area).
  4. Carvers Gap
    Will it happen? TRI has gone a whopping 24 straight days with below normal temps. We have yet to hit 90 this year. As Wagner noted, if we stay below 90 today, the month of June is a shutout for 90 degree temps. It is going to be a close call today at TRI as to whether both of those streaks continue. An MCS is rolling through now at 5:50AM.
  5. Carvers Gap
    One more day without a 90F reading, and TRI will pitch a shutout. Temp tomorrow is supposed to be 89-90F....gonna be close. Warmest temp at TRI was on June 3rd with 89. IMO, we just dodged about four weeks of summer. In my book, that is a win. John, I like that kind of temperature bust.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the heat is gonna be rippin' for the next few days. Seems like TX heat almost always finds a way into our area when it builds there. The good thing is that yet another anomalous cool air mass is in the 6-10 day range. But for now, the furnace is set on high. @Holston_River_Rambler, did we get a report on your trip out west?
  7. Carvers Gap
    Any pay sites have access to this yet OR is this the actually Euro? In other words, is there a ECMWF-IFS and also a ECMWF....or is it all under the same model? I wouldn't mind giving it a look if someone has free site access or if I can sign up for a free-trial at a pay site.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Summer of 2000...I think that is the year that it just stayed nice all summer long. Maybe hit 90 3x at TRI which is maybe the least I can remember. Looks like it was a weak La Nina year - normally those summers are HOT. Matthew, there is a year where the wx didn't fit the SST analog. I prob should check the PDO. Check that, I did just check the PDO. Looks like the PDO is about to shift to a negative phase which is good for us. That might correlate to cooler temps. The summer of 2000 had a descending and -PDO. As Jeff noted, the current PDO has been stubborn positive. If we go negative this month or next, maybe there is something there. That PDO set-up is likely the cause of the perpetual trough out west during the past several winters. As with any index, there aren't overly effective without others in combo. My best winter is 14-15 which was a strongly positive PDO. That said, some really nice -PDO winters on this grid. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php But there is another summer that started off awesome like this one....and then the TX heat ridge built into TN(I think), and we roasted. I don't know if I want to look that one up! LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Potential pattern adjustment upcoming....the TX heat ridge may send some heat eastward at times during the next 2-4 weeks. Cooler air masses should blunt the effects some, but summer is just about here in regards to temps. It wasn't going to be denied!
  10. Carvers Gap
  11. Carvers Gap
    @PowellVolz, you are getting credit for this (VQ post). Jax you mentioned this yesterday. Decently strong signal for severe wx tomorrow into Monday(looks like night time). This just came out this afternoon. Jax and Jeff, feel free to add content. I am just posting the graphic. I hate hail - especially very large hail. After 25K in damage several years ago(new roof, two cars mashed up), I want no part of that. May look at putting some cars in the parking garage if this is legit.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Evidently we are not the only ones....disco out of Great Falls, MT. We had 2 locations yesterday (June 21, 2023) break their low temperature record! Cut Bank whose previous record was 34°F in 1983. The new record is 31°F. Great Falls whose previous record was 37°F in 1942, 1995, and 1997. The new record is 33°F. Just looking at the years, I don't see a ton of commonalities. The Mountain West was really warm earlier this month. However, the parade of constant "cooler" air masses finally backed into their area. While those temps are not uncommon at higher elevations, those are cold for lower elevations out there. I once saw 5" of snow during mid-June in West Yellowstone. Rolled in off Lion's Head like one of those old dust storm picks from the Dust Bowl.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Thanks. Ah, yeah, I didn't click on the tweet and couldn't even see the temp scale. Might be a good year for a winter garden w/ cool weather plants! That is a torch if so. It has been trending strong it seems with each passing run. Seems to be the pattern of the past could of decade - Nina followed by super. Going to have to hope the QBO can counter balance this, and maybe produces some blocking. Any idea how the PDO looks? I "think" it should be flipping w/ the ENSO flip.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Is that weak to moderate or just steady moderate during fall?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, my tomatoes are loving this weather. Might be the best my plants have ever looked. They aren’t heat stressed or drought stricken. Disease struggles in this weather. Setting plenty of fruit. I put my peppers in raised beds. Normally they can suffer due to those beds getting too hot. Combo of raised beds and cool temps has been excellent. Even okra, which loves heat, is doing well, and that is changing how I view that plant’s tendencies. I always thought they loved heat. It must just be the longer days. 15 days straight of BN temps during June. I count that as a massive plus for summer no matter what comes next.
  16. Carvers Gap
    TRI is -3.8F BN for June. Honestly, it feels like late spring and not summer - dare I even say that. We are now running 13 straight days of BN temps. It has been cloudy all day today w/ periods of light rain. A great run of weather for June. Last June was a sauna. This is nearly the exact opposite. We will most assuredly have summer, but for every week we steal....just one less week of heat.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I feel the last few winters have actually been generally pretty textbook w/ La Nina. Last year had very few analogs as it was a third year Nina w/ a rising QBO(maybe one hand for analogs which fit that). The first two years of this past La Nina favored middle and west TN for cold and snow chances. E TN and the mountains had very few chances outside of early-mid December. Big time snow drought in some eastern areas of our forum currently (due to a persistent Nina pattern). Knoxville hasn't done terribly bad. Most of us know how tough middle and west TN have had it during the 2010s, so we don't complain. It has been nice to see those areas see winter chances of late. All of that has a lot to do with storm track. Also, the Mountain West(MT, ID, UT, WY) has been hammered w/ snow/cold during the past few winters - another textbook Nina pattern. Conversely, I am not sure the snows in California(cascades) fit La Nina. That seems more Nino...and those locals might have caught the initial waves of a transition to El Nino w/ the multiple atmospheric river events. The equatorial Pac began to warm, and they got hammered. John would know more about Mammoth since he watches that are regularly. But you are right, analogs are tricky. I know we have at least one excellent meteorologist on this forum who(I think) firmly states that each year is its own analog. There is a lot of truth to that. I use general SST trends as those are most accurate for seasonal forecasts at this range. Plus, I am an amateur. I get to make predictions for fun, and nobody's money is riding on those prognostications.
  18. Carvers Gap
    If they want mach 10, let's give'em mach 10.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Agree. The timing of it for this winter, is optimum if it follows the traditional cycle(and doesn't double dip positive).
  20. Carvers Gap
    This would be my overall winter forecast if pressed: Temps Dec: AN Jan: Much AN start/sesaonsal to BN to end the month Feb: Seasonal (If the Nino is classified as strong or super....much AN temps all months) Precip normal to AN. Snow.....BN for middle and west TN. E TN, especially NE TN/W NC/ SE KY/ SW VA will be dependent on a storm track which should favor the Piedmont or coast during late Jan to early Feb. Whether we get enough cold air in place to help is a giant question mark. Nino winters are often 1-2 big storms along w/ lots of slush during other events. The bitterly cold intrusions of last winter would be less likely. This is more track dependent w/ "just enough" cold in place. If this is a super Nino, warmth/zonal will potential overwhelm the pattern, and everyone strikes out. If the super/strong Nino can hold off until next spring, there should be a window for winter weather during the aforementioned months.
  21. Carvers Gap
    By the end of June last hear, TRI had reached >= 90F 13x(including May). Right now, we have not hit 90 yet. I will try to dig back through the threads, but it seems like we have had a couple of summers with similar starts during the past 20 years. During one of those summers, summer really cranked during late July and August. During another summer with a slow start, summer temps rarely reached 90 all summer. Having temps in the low 40s (flirting w/ some record min maxes earlier this month) for lows has been welcome. I have very little disease in my garden right now which is often related to heat stress and warm overnight temps. My garden last year was one of the least productive I have ever had due to the June heat. It is ripping right now. I did not re-up my sub for LR modeling over the summer. I can only see as far at Tropical Tidbits ensembles will take me which is about 16 days. So, I cannot see seasonal Cansips or Euro data sets. I can scrounge some tidbits from other forums with folks sharing their LR model data. For now, looks like we might warm-up for a few day before slipping back into the western ridge/ eastern trough configuration which we have seen since late April-ish. As for where this goes during the fall, I would think there is less chance of endless summer if precip will resume and reach normal levels. Dry wx often equals AN temps during fall. For now, I am cautiously optimistic that we see a nice end to September and a normal October. I lean seasonal to very hot for August. I suspect we will see maybe some early snows during November in the mountains. December and a good portion of January could potentially be well above normal in terms of temps. Think 50s-60s w/ overnight lows in the low 40s in perpetuity. Then, maybe we see cold air intrude far enough south by mid-late January/February(that's right, winter in Feb this year...maybe). If the Nino is strong, I will go wall-to-wall much AN temps. I am 55/45 on whether the Nino can get to those levels by mid-winter. If we stay weak or low-moderate, we would be in business. I think we reach strong moderate by late winter at the latest. The QBO could potentially reach negative levels again by roughly November or early December(if the 14 month cycle holds true). There is some decent evidence that a negative QBO does correlate to cold winters in NE TN. Right now the QBO is stagnant between +9 and +12. It dropped during May when in comparison to April. Whether that drop is simply an ebb and flow of the index is not known at this point.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just back from Montana about a week and a half ago. E TN had a couple of days that were cooler than E TN!!! Temps out West were much AN, but still very comfortable. Low humidity is the seventh wonder of the world. We did see snow, sleet, hail, and rain at about 7500'. There is plenty of snow still on the mountain tops, but it is melting quickly. We were able to take the new road into YNP from Gardiner into Mammoth. Just amazing they built that road into a paved road within four months last summer. That baby is curvy!!! Don't look at your phone or a book while riding, or you are gonna have pukers(we had one)!!!!! Fortunately, it didn't hit until out of the car. I can't imagine driving around in a rental after that! The flash floods did a number on that section of the park. Anyway, great trip. I will try to post some photos later. For once, we came back to E TN, and it didn't feel like a sauna. Monsoon season is in full swing in the northern Rockies. Watched the last episode of Ted Lasso out there. Man, what a great, great show that has been.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Loving this weather.
  24. Carvers Gap
    WBIR has video of two...one near Crossville and another in Fentress. Just looking at those, we were very fortunate not to see worse outcomes. https://www.wbir.com/article/weather/severe-weather/severe-storms-damage-tornado-tennessee/51-f6c76c20-cfa9-4a47-9f86-32fcae2e9108
  25. Carvers Gap
    Southwest Virginia has had a tornado warned cell track at decently long distance considering the elevation it is tracking at...
×
×
  • Create New...