Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The GFS is Happy Hour every run right now. LOL.
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Boone, how are they getting the most recent PDO numbers? It is almost like a daily index. I can only find data which is released at the end of each month. Is it pay data or government access data? Yep, those 1990s Nino analogs are nasty for the most part!!!! My main concern is the dry wx which is is plaguing the region. But....those dry Sept/Oc patterns often turned cold for winter - if we can actually say that is a true correlation. I do like the storm tracks which are showing up on the latest GFS runs. As we get closer to November, those tracks do have some correlation - lots of coastals modeled. No idea if they will verify.
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Yeah, I think they all are fairly complex even at short range. Seasonal forecasting at range is generally a crap shoot. Generally getting the long wave pattern correct by using ENSO state has some rigor, but still....Even during projected warm winters, cold patterns can hit and hold. I guess it is part of what makes this hobby fun and a bit maddening.
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Not getting into any of that. Just sharing PDO data which is why I highlighted it. I just normally don't like to take comments out of context. The PDO data is what is interesting.
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Heads up: New PDO information placed in winter spec thread...
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From @Terpeastt(link for full discussion): Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens! One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous. -3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016.
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Yes, the PDO I have beaten like a dead horse this fall and past summer. LOL. The MJO will have a say I am nearly certain. The Aleutians are tricky. The La Nina Aleutian 500mb high generally portends to a warm EC....but not always. Some years, there is a stalwart Aleutian 500mb low which is present. But yes, an Aleutian low is a good thing. A lot of the aformentioned Pac features are also highly dependent on how the Atlantic plays out, and how Pac features teleconnect to HL blocking over the Atlantic and Greenland. @John1122, is a big fan of EPO/PNA ridging. @nrgjefflooks at HP maybe in eastern Siberia during winter....Jeff, feel free to clarify. For me, I just don't like a GOA surface low which never leaves. What I like to see is a 500mb low east of Hawaii at mid latitudes which often creates split flow. Also, Jax's recurving cyclone east of Japan is a winner as well. @jaxjagman, you can clarify that. John also mentioned the strat being disrupted early....that can lead to good things at our latitude if it doesn't go to Asia. Generally, if the strat is getting hammered...big time cold will show up on the map(often in the wrong place) and then dump west(if it gets to NA at all). Generally strat chances are this: if in doubt, it goes to asia; next choice is NA; next choice is Mountain West: last choice is eastern NA.
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The 12z GFS (the right one this time!) has snow shower activity w/ the second cold shot - seems reasonable. The 12z CMC gets the gold star for trying to create mischief. The CFSv2 at lunch really wants to make December cold. I have December warm as part of my seasonal forecast ideas...but the CFS is giving me pause of late(seasonal run and weeklies run). I think a warm December still pans out, especially if November is cold. 09-10 beat the odds and went cold to start winter.....would be nice to see a repeat. Interestingly, the analogs for the dry Sept/Oct all started cold for winter. I have the analog reanalysis maps in the winter spec thread for those interested. Always, big weather changes ahead in about four days. Summer is likely done with maybe a slight gasp between cold shot one and two.
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I could say that I have special access, OR I could say that I accidentally thought I was looking at 12z(but it was actually 6z).
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The GFS has been signaling that November (at least the first half anyway) could just be one cold shot after another w/ warm interludes(albeit brief). The 12z run exemplifies this idea. Is it right? We will see.
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12z GFS agains toying with some mischief. I do wonder if the warm November signal is actually false. Again, this occurred a few years ago.
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The 12z GFS is a proper start to winter....or end to Fall...whichever you all prefer.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The accumulation map is insane. LOL. Hurricane turned NE blizzard. Let's just get to normal before the season starts!!!! -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
You should put that in the main thread. I was coming over to talk about that. That second amplification which modeling is sniffing out....could do that IF a tropical system timed-up with it. Looks a lot like Sandy. -
Some of those 90s Ninos - we were mowing in January here. Whew, my leaf changing is on or ahead of schedule. Leaves are pouring off the trees - making my yard look like crap! LOL. I wonder if your area has slowed due to you all developing drought earlier? I do think a back-loaded winter w/ a false, early start is likely. Seems like cold patterns tend to follow where it rains during fall - that is a Bastardi rule, but seems accurate. We had our first frost a couple of days ago. No freeze yet, but that looks on the way around Nov1.
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The 12z GFS has a second, stronger amplification after the early November one. That "could" (remember shoulder season modeling is super fickle) mean that we are looking at something more than a 3-4 day cold shot. The second amplification would drive the cold air far enough south that we would be tracking snow showers and flurries in the valleys.
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An interesting trend overnight on the American and Canadian ensembles...the cold is not confined to just one cold shot in early November. The GEFS is honking the most, but the Canadian is right there with it. The EPS sees it somewhat as well...but very washed out at this range. Rare to see d10-15 looking that chilly on an ensemble. I do think the GEFS is a little more accurate during shoulder season. If the cold persists longer than just the 3-4 day cold shot during early November....it will bear some similarities to the year I was insistent that November would be warm...and it was crazy cold. LR modeling had a very warm depiction and then busted hugely. John had a great analog set, and scored the cold month. @John1122 do you remember what year that was? Was it an El Nino year?
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Biggest fly in the ointment...all +PDOs.
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There may be zero correlation there...but just worth kicking around.
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Here is a composite of the three years DJF temps. Though October doesn't have as much correlation as November, one can wish right? The following winters' temp maps. The preceding Octobers' precip maps. The current drought map...
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MRX notes that September/October will likely be in the top two for min precip for that timeframe(Tri-Cities, Chattanooga, Knoxville). For kicks and giggles. Three El Ninos are in this list: 39-40', 58-59' and 63-64'. So, three of the top 5 driest years at TRI were El Ninos. Interestingly, the rest are La Nina. That(so many Ninos in the top 6 for Sept/Oct drought) is surprising. Given that often La Nina drives dry Falls in E TN, that was an eye opener. Now, I bet you are wondering what the winter of 63-64' looked like.......
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Looks like a classic, El Nino false start to winter (tad early) just after Halloween. Those are very common IMHO during El Nino Falls. It looks like the timing of the cold front is now slightly after Halloween. I don't know if that is good or bad...the later timing opens up chances for rain as flow will be southerly. But hopefully, trick-or-treaters get a good window. Overall, November warmth appears likely after that cold shot. By the second week of November I think we see aforementioned warm-up which will last through a good portion of December. Back loaded winters are a pain in the neck...but that is what is likely in play. I still am keeping an eye on the cold during early November(late October if timing reverts) for mischief in the foothills. The recent trend is for a more shallow and broad trough which is not a great set-up for mountain and early-season snow. It is not uncommon to see El Nino Falls where snow levels can drop to 2,000'. And one final note...shoulder season modeling is often just abysmal. So, be prepared for the weather to sometimes do exactly the opposite(of what is depicted) in the 2-4 week timeframes. While I "think" the second half of November will be warm....never know. Modeling is often as fickle as a phantom fair catch call which gets you placed on the three yard line instead of the 25.
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I think @John1122 talked about this earlier.... Looks like a strong cold shot around Halloween is on the table. I would suspect we see a strong snowstorm in the Plains which ushers in what could be temps that feel more like winter than fall. This is the type of air mass that "could" produce the first snow showers/flurries at lower elevations. Just last week, areas above 5,000' saw their first snowfall in the Smokies. The timing is still about ten days out, so proceed with caution. That said, ensembles and operationals are showing cold air dropping into Montana and the Dakotas....then southeastward. Not that the SER ever needs any help, but it still has plenty of punch due it not really being winter yet. However, with wavelengths changing-up....mischief could be afoot.
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GFS long range extended and Euo Weeklies...The EW's are 46 days out and GFS extended is similar.
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The extended long range stuff(40+day models) are into early December. The point of that comment is that we no longer have to rely. just on seasonal modeling which come in 30 day increments. It is highly unlikely any of those maps are right, but they do allow a glimpse into the world of large scale, 500mb geopotential daily progressions.
