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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove feels like the storm this weekend sets the stage for the trough to drop-in about 10 days later. He thinks that is the catalyst.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Of course everything is subjective past 5-7 days. However, it looks like modeling has been quite consistent in switching the pattern up around the 20th at 500mb. Now, that might take a few days past that for cold air to enter the pattern. I think Nino is driving the boat now. We are seeing increased precip, cloudy days, and the signature 50/60s temps and lows in the 40s. My seasonal ideas have the pattern changing to cold by mid January. Models are much faster than that w/ the Dec 20th change...if they are right. The WAR showing up on modeling does hint at an SSW incoming. I used to get frustrated when I would see the SER hook-into the NAO. Not anymore. That is usually a fairly big precursor to big pattern changes down the road. The 12z GEPS has the change now at d14-15 now. Honestly, it is pretty impressive that the Euro Weeklies could possibly have nailed this switch from 4-6 weeks - pretty amazing when one thinks about it.
  3. Carvers Gap
    If weather models were college football playoff teams: Michigan = Euro. We know they are good, but that model steals our signs and Heismans(I mean snow). And some of us really just don't like that model, because it is only blue(at 500) in Michigan. Texas = GFS. It is all American, and is only good during the fall. Washington = CMC. They seem like they should belong, but nobody is quite sure until they actually win against a good team. Alabama = AI model. AI should be better. Why? It is AI, and it gets in because Google made it. But really, we aren't sure if it is better, or just has a good day every once in a while. FSU = CFSv2. We know it is good, but we just don't think it can stand up against other models. But A LOT of us don't like the AI model, and would prefer the CFSv2 as a personal preference. (no offense meant towards our AI friends in the Big Bend area of the TN river). Georgia = UKMET. It leads the way right before the Euro comes out every day. But in the end, it just isn't the Euro, and AI made it look bad. Tennessee = Euro Weeklies. They always look good from a distance. But when reality hits, it is just a passing cold front. But we love them, because they alway show orange(on 500 maps) over Greenland. Plus, the Weeklies are said to be able to throw it 80 yards. But last year the Weeklies were better than the AI model, and we are gonna live on that for the next five years.
  4. Carvers Gap
    That cutter is likely gonna be strong. It probably isn't wrong unfortunately. Good find.
  5. Carvers Gap
    All global ensembles to varying degrees have the pattern change at around d15-16. Still a ways to go, but good to see that ridge getting the boot.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome. You all needed every drop. Hopefully, that is the end of fire season.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The warm start to December is shrinking with each passing model run. Here at TRI, we have two different days in which snow might fly this week.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is possible they got that here. Check page 3 of the winter spec thread during late October. We have a page or two on those post-drought winters. I was really surprised to see our driest Sept/Oct were predominantly El Nino. La Nina falls are often dry and hot...but the very worst were Nino. But yes, really crazy stat. I think there must be some loose correlation.
  9. Carvers Gap
    MRX afternoon disco. All right, foothills/plateau/mountain residents, here is the evening disco from MRX: .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 318 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Key Messages: 1. Another shortwave trough brings colder air and a NW flow pattern, with accumulating snowfall expected in higher elevations on Wednesday. 2. Potential for a strong system to affect the region next weekend. Discussion: Not much has changed over the last 24 hours as we progress the long term period out another day. Outside of lingering precipitation overnight Monday night, we quickly move to the next shortwave that will come swinging into the area Tuesday night. As has been the discussion, the cold air the shortwave is bringing with it along with decent low level moisture and upslope flow will combine to produce a light snowfall accumulation in the mountains. Some snow showers into the lower elevations of NE TN and SW VA is also possible, but accumulations beyond a quick dusting will be hard with marginal surface temperatures. With all the clouds and rain/snow showers around, Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week, with forecast already below NBM and might go even cooler for daytime temperatures given the ongoing weather at that time. NAM has a high of 36 at Bristol, adjusted the temperatures to move slightly in that direction. The good news is once the upper trough exits sometime Wednesday evening heights will build back in as a ridge moves into our area, bringing a warming trend on through the for the remainder of the week. Ensembles and the deterministic guidance still show a deep upper trough this upcoming weekend which will be the next system after Wednesday to watch. Guidance is keyed in on a potent overall setup, just details to hash out when we get closer. Though the solutions are different, both GFS and Euro bring strong return flow and potent dynamics. At the very least this should boost us back to pleasant temperatures, though this reprieve will be short lived with the presumably strong cold front.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z ensembles are also starting to get the potential pattern change in their sights as the post Dec 20th transition window slides into view. Ridge is getting dislodged on both the GEPS and GEFS.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has a western forum area snow threat next Sunday. The CMC is slightly more progressive. Blend might move snow chances further eastward - if indeed real. Storm could be a strong one wherever it ends up.......
  12. Carvers Gap
    The clown map is gonna be fun. LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS....what a way to run a warm-up.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are something to behold this evening. Same sequence as share before, but man.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z GFS and CMC look decently December-ish. They at least have my passing interest.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I claim to be no sun wx expert, but this can't be great. @Holston_River_Rambler, are we getting some aurora tonight or too cloudy? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-strong-geomagnetic-storm-observed-01-dec
  17. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, I hope you don't mind me making a new obs thread. Grayson Co, VA, had a decent amount of ZR this morning as cold got trapped in the mountains. Just looking at social media it was a mess. Anyway, it is raining here at TRI w/ a temp of 43F. This is about completely the opposite of our fall weather patter which was dry and hot. Let's hope this continues.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at what I like to think are the final seasonal model runs for winter. The CFSv2 run today is really good, and the CANSIPS is really not. Both do feature varying degrees of beneficial HL blocking. The low in the eastern Pacific is just shredding modeling right now(and the placement thereof). LC mentions this in a post on social media today.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS and CMC both have the northern stream energy now. I think that would be good for the northern Plateau. Both are colder than earlier ensembles.
  20. Carvers Gap
    He used to post in the SE forum. Great poster and site.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Sometimes I read JB, and wonder...did we just talk about that on our sub-forum? And yes, yes we did this time. He has a nice post about the MJO this morning, and....how it is driving the pattern. @Daniel Boone, you called front seat on this one! Anyway, I take a slightly different tangent than JB(I think) and use the GEFS ext(weeklies) as the GEFS has simply been kicking butt and taking names of late, and it usually does this during shoulder season. Then, after shoulder season, the ECMWF suite returns the favor most years. The first slide is the MJO centered on NDJ. Of note, if centered on OND, the southeast ridge presents itself in phases 8, 1, and 2. The lesson? The deeper that we get into December the more that regions 8 and 1 verify as colder. The next three slides are the CPC indices re: NAO, AO, and PNA. The NAO in my opinion is just not overly important at this time of year. It matters more during mid/later winter and spring. And note to self, an -NAO during fall means scorching hot temps in the southeast(same for summer usually). The AO and PNA are going to drive the bus this winter IMHO. With the NAO going negative early, it probably will have a say later this winter as that often repeats. However, when the PNA/AO are in tandem it gets cold here. Just look at the last couple of days for evidence. Now, onto the MJO....take a look at the GEFS ext. This plot came out yesterday. It rotates into phase 8 around the 17th. Many weeklies model runs have been fairly stubborn in the regime changing around mid-month. This has been true since the beginning of November. And even more interesting, the pushing back of the pattern changes has been almost non-existent. Maybe during the past month it has been pushed back 24-72 hours. I think I had a post a couple of weeks ago about modeling switching up around the 14th. It might be the 17th now. But overall, the week of Christmas looks like a transition timeframe with decent potential afterwards. And how do we know the MJO is in crap phases right now...well, because we are having to talk about it(Flash's rule #1). The good news is that we should see it rotate on around instead of camping out inf 4-5-6. Lastly, source regions matter. Beware during El Nino years....
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 0z and 6z GFS with some interesting solutions overnight....
  23. Carvers Gap
    I expect the warmup to be longer than expected. The MJO will work against us until mid Jan I think, and then it flips in our favor. I still think mid-Jan through Feb is our best shot. Anything prior is just bonus for me. Pretty active pattern though with poor temp source regions feeding it. Good to see the pattern being modeled as an active one.
  24. Carvers Gap
    This is funny stuff right here...
  25. Carvers Gap
    18 degrees this morning here at TRI. It was a dry cold though...so not as miserable as the wind chill driven stuff yesterday.
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