Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,656

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler the NAM has light the signal fire as you predicted.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The original Euro Weeklies are probably going to be closer to the mark than when the Weeklies flipped last week. Global ensembles are showing this now. And it makes me wonder if there isn't a hiccup right now in the week 3 range. And this was really seen across most modeling - CFSv2, CFS seasonal, CANSIPS, and GEFS ext. I don't think the crazy strong WAR every materialized nor the massive GoA trough. What has been constant is a HB block. What modeling did miss at 4-6 weeks was the massive chinook due to BN heights in and around the GoA(but thankfully that feature was not on steroids as shown at one time). That chinook and the jet extension in the Pac(likely related) are things which just aren't modeled well at range, but they also created many features on modeling which appear less likely to reach fruition in terms of reality. Now, the WAR signature on modeling does show-up sometimes(even if it doesn't verify) as a precursor to SSWs. Most likely, 500 maps (which are well below, vertically speaking, 10mb in the atmosphere) start to feel that strat warming, and the WAR shows up as a result. Again, that probably is an over-reaction on modeling, but it can also wreck 500 maps in the LR. Maybe we back into a decent pattern before the next MJO rotation hits, and we do it all over again.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, you all are in a great spot this winter. I am thrilled for the ski slopes. As a poster noted in the MA, the STJ is showing little sign of backing off. The current storm track during Jan-March is likely big money for you all. I do wonder if it(the never appearing eastern Pac drought) has something to do with how modeling is smoothing out features after d10. For example, a big storm cuts into the West coast. What is depicted as a trough is more like a deep storm which is transient. I could easily be wrong, but I just am not seeing evidence that the eastern Pac trough is hitting and holding.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And I am not going to be track this for two weeks(feel free to if you want...I won't judge!), but modeling is picking up on a storm signal around the 28th or 29th. You can see it every so slightly in the GEPS/GEFS individual snow maps at 12z. The actual low placement you can see pretty clearly on ensembles...but there is a bit of a signal now at the surface. As one of the guys mentioned in the MA thread, the actual shift at 500 may end-up only missing by about 5 days. As Boone noted and also LC, our cold maybe well come from successive storms which steadily press the bound ward eastward, and then tap that cold in eastern Canada. Again, that is a decent storm signal, and does work given the set-up which Boone mentioned above.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think Quebec is going to have to be our source for legit cold. I just can't tell if LR modeling is smoothing out things to the point it just "looks" like a trough his off the West coast(and it is actually a storm rotating through) or what. However, the pattern seems much more progressive than a locked in trough in the eastern Pac. That would be a very Nino pattern. I do think the MJO is an issue and modeling not handling it well. Also, that big block in central Canada is not easy to model. I think when we get to weather patterns which have so few analogs, that disrupts modeling as I am sure some of the physics (even if it doesn't use analogs in original programming) probably has a biased towards analogs as programing would likely somewhere have analogs at its foundation - either programmers and/or root programming and/or other influences I can't see. Even with long range seasonal modeling(Euro Weeklies) one can see the analog input w/ the snow input. It rarely outpaces seasonal norms.
  6. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone, has the persistent trough on the west coast ever actually materialized. Maybe modeling is just seeing storms pinwheeling about the HB block? However, I keep seeing it on modeling in the d10+, and then it doesn't show up as we get closer. Is it feedback or modeling correcting the MJO as we get closer? I can't tell, but it is wrecking havoc on LR modeling. I think what we are actuating seeing are storms just rotating under the ridge in central Canada w/ AN heights between storms vs a static pattern where there is a trough or ridge parked somewhere and not moving.
  7. Carvers Gap
    From MRX this morning re: eastern areas: On Monday another strong upper low dives southeast out of Canada and across the upper midwest and Ohio valley regions. This will be something to watch as it results in very deep H5 heights and will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air with it along with some additional precipitation. Currently it appears it will be cold enough by late Mon afternoon that snowfall down to low elevations will be possible. The question is how far south this trough, and resulting precipitation, make it. Right now the consensus is for areas north of the I-40 corridor, especially in our VA counties and far northeast TN mountains, to see some precipitation Monday afternoon into Monday night. It`s likely this will be in the form of snow in the higher elevations, but plausible there could be some light accumulations into the low elevations as well. Details are fuzzy though, and confidence therefore not high. But it is certainly something to keep an eye on.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Euro has 3-9" along the Apps. That would be huge for the ski slopes, and fits with Nino climatology if true. Again, with marginal temps, anything is possible - including nothing.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The system this weekend has accumulating snows above ~2500' on both the CMC and the Euro. Both have a backside vortex that gets pulled into the surface low to the east of the Apps. Very plausible. Is it right? IDK. Like Fountain noted, there will be several more looks before models settle-in due to the semi-complicated look to model. If the energy in the front is slower or energy in the back is faster....bigger storm for somebody. As we noted earlier in the week, a storm that strong should have snow somewhere near it, and modeling is "seeing" that now in some regards...not so much the storm dynamics by the low diving in as it departs. Eastern areas and the mountains probably have the best chance of mood flakes. Well, the mountains could be much more.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The MJO is maybe less important right now as it is still early winter, but the MJO is for sure present on modeling. The big problem is the GoA low modeling in the medium range. Where it sets up is highly important. If we can get the ridge out of central Canada that will help displace it.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Satellite is the gold standard, but OLR works as well. Basically, if you see storms firing over the Indian Ocean and/or Indonesia...phases 4-6 will follow. I you see an MJO pulse make it to the dateline, that is basically phase 7-8-1. The Nino projected to warm near the dateline (think that is right) should enhance MJO phase 8. Big thing right now is I think modeling is struggling mightily with HL blocking, the potential for a strat split. Model chaos is impending IMHO.
  12. Carvers Gap
    We are seeing reversals across modeling today. I don’t know what to make of it other than modeling weakened the MJO in error
  13. Carvers Gap
    Pretty big changes to the operational 12z GFS. Those began at 0z or maybe earlier. Big PNA pops as the HB block retrogrades into NW Canada - that changes things for the better if real. Fingers crossed, that would mean that models are reverting to a better pattern. I suspect, the MJO is correcting into colder phases. It looks that way on the CPC site. If the MJO is correct, the MJO will progress back through warm phases yet again...but I doubt it gets caught on the warm side for more than a 10-12 days. The 12z GFS does have cold air back in the pattern after d10.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Power T is back as the avatar. Ensembles look workable as do extended ensembles d+14. Some of the "clutter" from the past few days has been removed. The Pacific trough is still too close to the West coast, but(and it is a big but)......the trough over the SE has begun to show around the 28th. Is it a mirage? 50/50 IDK. I do think cold is still lacking in a massive way, but just getting rid of the NA torch will be helpful. As for the boomer this weekend...man, it really wants to stall. Any time we see storms looping, re-forming, etc....good luck to modeling in figuring that out. Trends overnight have been eastward??? What is crazy is the lack of cold is probably producing that storm. There are few steering currents once it gets to our latitude. It is almost like a hurricane that gets tucked under big high and just sits. If it gets as strong as modeled, somebody in the East is getting a frozen mess even if temps are warm...the storm is modeled that strong. Modeling could be overdoing it. Today is a big day in terms of figuring out intensity. And yes, Holston, when the Nam finally sees it, it is gonna be like a bear which sees one of those big red coolers in a compact car. Havoc is gonna take place!
  15. Carvers Gap
    I still do wonder if there will be some rates driven frozen precip at higher elevations. If it gets that strong, there is a chance that it will.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I will say this, the system this weekend will help with drought conditions over E TN. The slp slows down and almost stalls.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Certainly possible and that fits my overall winter ideas. That said, my concern is that we are long overdue for a winter with few cold snaps - another balancing act of sorts. Two of the last three winters have been good for middle and west TN at times. I think eastern areas have the best chance this winter as coastals spill down cold air. But we are due for a dud. Good winters come in cycles and so do bad ones. A lot can change between now and late January. Some of the control runs show a couple of 3-5 day cold snaps during January - maybe we can sync up with one of those. For now, we have a long wait I think...hopefully I am wrong. On the plus side, weather for running has been optimal.
  18. Carvers Gap
    With the exception of the cool down after the coastal between Dec15-20, I really don't see a sustained cold snap on any modeling that is actually believable. It is certainly easier to forecast warmth and be correct! LOL. No cold source, no delivery system if it was there, and a bad Pacific/Atlantic setup = pretty meh weather here. That is about all that I have. We will hope(cause that is all that we have) that the second half of winter changes up, but again, my confidence is less and less with each passing day regarding a colder second half of winter. If we can get just normal temps during January, we could maybe score. For now, the Canadian torch is inbound with a vengeance. If you ever wonder what weather maps looked like during the 90s Ninos, just take a look at ensembles and extended modeling....I wish that I had better news. So this is how I am going to play this prolonged warm-up. Unless you hear me talking about cooler weather after the 20th, just assume I think it is going to be warm. I am not going to be one of those broken-record, Debbie Downers from other forums that like to rub salt in the wound, and bang their chests about how right they are. Other than that, I may track this coastal around the 17th just for fun, and maybe some flurries to end that storm.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z modeling is flirting with a stalled Nor'Easter along the coast at 168ish. ICON had a really bizarre run, but I think that is what it was getting at.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Just a quick glance at the MJO plots this morning on CPC, and they do look like they are correcting towards the colder phases of the MJO vs the COD solutions yesterday. What I see this morning are full, low amplitude passes through the cold phases on several models. I would suspect that we see a full turn at normal amplitude through those phases(whatever normal is....just not low). So, maybe we are seeing a combination of modeling missing the pass through the warm phases(consequence is delayed onset of colder pattern), and now are "seeing" the MJO move into colder phases without dying out. I am not certain of that, but I suspect that is what caused the model adjustments that we saw a couple of days ago. Also, I would suspect we see yet another loop through the warm phases after the potential cold phase pass. Just looking at Holston's post yesterday, there is convection in the MJO regions which produce warm phases on MJO plots. After that second pass through warm phases, I think Nino takes over....Cosgrove would be money if that hits.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Great point, and the 6z GEFS does show BN heights undercutting the ridge in the LR
  22. Carvers Gap
    Impressive, impressive storm on both the 0z CMC and Euro operationals around the 17th. It is a rainer(CMC has some backside flurries), but a very impressive coastal. Powell posted a slide from yesterday's model run. Still there today. That is a Nino storm track, and a good sign for later this winter I think. Interesting overnight change, the CFSv2 seasonals flipped cold for Jan-March. Do I believe them? Not enough to say more than a couple of sentences. I wonder if models are correcting re: the MJO? Again, they misread the MJO and didn't take it through the warm phases. Maybe they have done the same with cold phases?
  23. Carvers Gap
    I lived in Knoxville in 96...first job. I kept coming home to TRI to find mounds of snow in the parking lots that year. It would start about the Greenville exit. My parents had like 36" of snow between two storms.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I was at UT at the time. One of my roommates was from Powell - actually knew three of the guys from the team which went to state maybe in 89. That year was also when Lenoir City was hit by the tornado in '93, right? I remember seeing all of the requests for EMS on TV.
  25. Carvers Gap
    This was my general rule as a kid(and it was my rule...so TIFWIW)....if we didn't see some light accumulations by the end of December, winter was going to be tough. During my time in Florida, I used to check back in TN to see when the first snows had arrived JB is worried that a storm this month may cause some damage even if it is just rain. That is crazy strong.
×
×
  • Create New...