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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yep, true. It is not a bad look. I don't like the NW trend of late, so 12z will be important in that regard I think. Tough to resist a good Euro clown map FWIW. LOL.
  2. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro control run from overnight. Most of this is Jan 4th-7th....storm is trending a bit close on operationals for my book, but fun run. I think we need to score early during January.
  3. Carvers Gap
  4. Carvers Gap
    Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for portions of the Plateau. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 205 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 TNZ011-032>034-065-066-078>080-292100- /O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0005.231230T0000Z-231230T1200Z/ Pickett-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-White-Cumberland-Warren-Grundy- Van Buren- Including the cities of Byrdstown, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Sparta, Crossville, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, and Spencer 205 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one inch with locally higher elevations up to two inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM CST this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I do think we are probably going to need to track the system on Jan 4th. The 6z GFS looked like a decent past for eastern areas. That is in addition to a good Euro run at 0z
  6. Carvers Gap
    Some great model runs for the timeframe before the 10th, and we had better hit. The new GEFSext MJO plot doesn't even get the MJO out of phase 5 until Jan 28th. It is conceivable that the entire month of January could be spent in warm phases of the MJO - and still not even rotate into 6 which is the warmest. Now, I am not convinced this is what occurs, but that plot is the worst case scenario - and that is the eastern ridge hooking into the NAO scenario likely. That said, notice the MJO is not out of phase 8 yet, and most modeling didn't have the current stall in 8. However, seeing the MJO stall out in 5 would be a surprise to me......but the plot below would basically wipe out out best climatology from Jan 15th to roughly Feb 7th. Again, it is possible this is completely wrong, and I will probably look at that scenario later. Think last year where the MJO wouldn't leave the warm phases....this winter, it should really not want to go there. The CFSv2 seasonal this morning has flipped January to warm. Basically, the CFS is banking on the second half of January being very warm. Most LR modeling is flirting with a western Atlantic ridge which is hooked into the NAO for an undetermined duration after Jan 10th. That is a huge problem. Let's hope that is in error.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think if/when we are going to see strong cold, it will have to come after the 20th. Storm track will work in January, though, even with marginal temps. Source regions are good by the second week of January FWIW.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yes, that is what we we’re discussing yesterday. Maps today look very similar. How long does that trough hold? TBD. Maybe a slight uptick with the snow mean, but looks very similar to 0z. Models are going to take a few days to sort out the Greenland block, strat, and MJO. Agree, still early. I know this though. When @tnweathernutmentions a timeframe....it is worth watching.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Give me some of that.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Stellar look on the 12z Euro at 168.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Another little system rolls through Monday. It is small, but could have some snow with it north of I-40 in E TN.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And one last map, and it probably deserves to go into banter, but hey, it's the holidays. This is last night's full-run of the ext GEFS (control). I don't know what somebody did in south-central TN to make wx model programmers mad, but....LOL. Anyway, that is the map through Jan 31.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Just tagging onto Holston's 3k gif for tomorrow, there is quite a lot on the table in modeling in the short and medium ranges. I think it is more nickel and dime stuff, but there are some decent passes that a very short NW jog could change to something better. There are three pieces of energy rotating through next week alone. The 6z GEFS has this for the full-run snow mean. Sometimes, I look at the long range, and fail to mention the potential closer at hand. Not a bad look....and probably means that some members have those slp running inland instead of off the coast.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I read from a met in the MA forum who cautioned their forum (if I interpreted those comments correctly) not to buy-in to MJO rotations into the warm phases quite yet. He noted that might be an error in the same vein that modeling was in error last winter when trying to rotate the MJO into phases 8-2-1. Modeling is definitely struggling with rotating past phase 3. I think it will, but it is no slam dunk. One thing the met noted was that as modeling gets closer, it adjusts better as maybe modeling doesn't handle the MJO well during d10-15, but corrects once inside of d10. That swords cuts both ways...meaning the near range may be colder than originally modeled(much higher amplitude into phase one than was forecast), but w/ the MJO flirting with warmer phases in the longer range...the LR (d10-15) may not be "seeing" the MJO rotation into warmer phases. If the MJO fails to rotate out of the COD (while in the warm phases), and treks back into 7-3, then we may be looking at a significantly long period of cold weather. That is spitballing on my part, and could be an error.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And tomorrow will likely feature lots of snow showers over the forum area with minor accumulations(elevation advantage) as @Holston_River_Rambler pointed out earler. The 3k NAM definitely has widespread, light snow showers for much of the forum area. Streamers reach into the northern third of Alabama. It wouldn't surprise me to see some of this fall as a mix or even light rain, depending on the time of day. From MRX this morning: On Friday, the center of an upper level closed low will be situated across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana with a surface wave across central Illinois. An inverted sfc trough will be aligned across Eastern Tennessee. This upper level low will move east through the day Friday before elongating in response to phasing associated with a northern branch north of the Great Lakes. As the past few discussions have pointed out, this system is fairly moisture starved. Colder temperatures aloft will promote some instability and shower activity across the region Friday into Saturday. Coverage appears to be scattered at best given the lack of moisture. It will be cold enough for snow showers, especially across the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and higher elevations of East Tennessee. Snow total amounts remain mostly unchanged with just a few tenths of an inch across most locations. Slightly higher amounts (1-2 inches) may be found across the highest elevations where temperatures will remain colder for most of the event. Eventually this system will exit the region Saturday afternoon with decreasing chances of precipitation.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is it. Great stuff on all fronts. I "think" modeling is picking up on the Lower 48's first Arctic outbreak of the winter - maybe right after the 12th. That may well be the consequences of the SSW disruption which began a few weeks back. Looks to me like we may well get some of the coldest air in the norther hemisphere to work into the NA pattern. We are going to see some model chaos. La Nina's would normally park a SER over us in that pattern...but without the Nina driver, it may well just come in waves. I think we see a warm-up right after that, a reset, and then very cold air after that. I am actually good with just jostling the spv and the tpv. I don't know if this makes sense, but vs the Arctic just jettisoning all of the cold at once...I prefer it rolling to lower latitudes in waves. That said, I am growing a bit more concerned that all of it heads south somewhere in a window of Jan25th to Feb 10th.
  17. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, were global ensembles even colder overnight? Looked to me like a ridge rolls through on the ~9th, and then a colder air mass right after that. The CFSv2 (I used that to extrapolate past global ensembles) has a warm-up and then brings temps almost twenty-five degrees below normal for early Feb. I think that must be the strat warm effect.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yep. All true.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That is a debate which could go three pages! It is highly dependent on which area of the forum one lived as to whether that worked out for them during the last three winters. The warm phases of MJO were toasty in NE TN during the last three winters - and those were with some version of SSWs. I was in shorts while you all were trying to keep the lights on. LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Now, I should also add that I am not trying say that we are going to see extreme weather....just maybe seasonal wintry stuff for E TN, and probably slightly BN for points west. That isn't me being a homer either. During La Nina winters(unless it is weak), the opposite is true. Nobody can see the future, so that makes this part of the fun. But it sure beats tracking what we track last winter which was pretty much a barren wasteland of meh after December. Again, the MJO and warm phases are a BIG problem if the Atlantic doesn't help.
  21. Carvers Gap
    This is the current run of the 18z GEFS...day one compared to day 15. IF(stress if) this is correct, that puts much of NA below normal for temps. More importantly, our source regions will not be where it is red. Now, keep in mind that those AN temps in Canada are still incredibly cold here at this latitude. The problem with a warm Canada is that the air modifies more quickly when it originates AN there. This is a very classic El Nino flip. How long it lasts is up for great debate!!!! But I will say that any time it is BN during the heart of our coldest temps, that is very cold air to our north.
  22. Carvers Gap
    First, the December warm-up is over. The January warm-up lurks during mid-month, but is not certain. Details below... During January, it is much easier to scour out warm air. It does not want to be warm during Canada during January, and I don't think it will. Chinooks are not abnormal for Canada, but that has halted. Canada will be (likely) nearly completely vacated of warm-air by the first week of January and below normal by the second week of January. It only takes about a week for the entire continent to be flooded with Arctic air. That means our source regions are likely going to be MUCH different. La Nina winters (which you should get next winter) are money for your area - El Nino is tougher but doable w/ your climatology. Mid-January is a 50/50 call right now in regards to warm or cold. I would say Jan 12-22 is probably the thaw if pressed....but that NAO develops, all bets are off. I had wondered if this would be a thaw when ext LR models hiccuped(as we have to have cold in order to have a thaw). I think much of E TN will be BN for temps for the next two weeks. Again, the opening salvo of winter, warm rebounds, and the cold takes hold again....that is what modeling is showing. Going to be an MJO vs NAO cage match it appears. We just need to hope the NAO shows up for the fight! For now, my thoughts on cold are during two time frames: December28-Jan12 and Jan25-most of Feb. That can and will change, but those are my thoughts for now.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Dropping these here for later to see if they verify.....precip is much below normal from the Plateau westward. It is below normal as well for E TN, but right next to AN...likely signifying snow(snowy areas are sometimes BN for precip on ext models). Snow track is NE GA to the New England and secondary Midwest. But give me that 500 pattern, those temps, that HL blocking, and an active El Nino storm track...and let's roll. Fingers crossed this is legit. Hard to believe a 46d temp map would be that cold. That would put DJF below normal for eastern areas.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Great points. After reading your post, I pulled yesterday's 6-10 day analogs from CPC and the day 8-14. The first set are d6-10 and second set are d8-14. Interesting to see January of 85 in there. I don't think we see that type of extreme, but interesting to see it in the analog package for d6-10. I didn't expect that. 19881217 19570101 19661228 19810106 19770102 19550112 19640113 19850106 19870114 19550120 19670102 19640113 19890105 19881228 19790116 19550115 19570105 19760103 19701224 19600108
  25. Carvers Gap
    Other than that, feel free to debate, discuss, and dissect the above. Those are just ideas and some brainstorming from this morning. Have at it!
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