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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    This is the cold front the Euro control has during the second weeks of Jan....It is just an example, but impressive. These are departures. Some temps are 45 below normal during the coldest week of the year. Those would create highs below freezing in the Panhandle of FL with lows in the mid to upper teens there. I doubt it comes to pass exactly like that, but that might be the most impressive cold front I have seen generated by a wx model for this time of year. Without snow on the ground, TRI doesn't get out of the teens and drops to below zero. This run is courtesy of a couple of cutters which drop ample snow to our north. Then, as referenced in my previous post(the ensemble!), the PV gets trapped and sent southward. The GEFS is more west, and that makes sense. But this would wreck havoc if it came east without modification.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS is less impressive, but the GEPS/EPS are pretty frigid d10-15. I will post the control in a minute. That big red ball over Greenland is how one fights the MJO. That is a really cold look for NA. And I might caution, we have seen this look many times during the past few winters, and it is TOUGH to get it to verify....but there it is again.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I must say, the late night crew put up some great content. Awesome, ya'll! Tracking on NYE....that is a good thing.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Some decent trends (better than decent) on global ensembles overnight (d10-15). That gets us through the first half of January. If that is our winter, then so be it. This could be our shot. Like several others, I do think we see a warm-up after that....then cool back down. Interesting to see Cosgrove really hammer home that March should be warm, and honestly if this plays out as a cold Jan25-Feb28, we will all probably be glad for the arrival spring. His thinking is that the Nino is going to break down quickly and that La Nina is going to arrive quickly.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Canadian was decent......
  6. Carvers Gap
    Tonight's GEFS ext has rediscovered high latitude blocking. We will watch this trend for the next few days, but modeling seems to be can kicking the MJO warm phases. I can say this, if cold wx was being can kicked in the same way...I would be worried it wouldn't come to pass. Maybe this time the can kicking is in our favor?
  7. Carvers Gap
    One of my kiddos plays for the Pride of the Southland. They are in Orlando. I have been keeping track of the wx there. Frost and freeze advisories are in north Florida. But check this out....what a cool sign off. East Central Florida Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 637 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 .DISCUSSION... ...Below Normal Temperatures Forecast Tonight... ...Patchy Frost Possible North of I-4... Currently-Overnight...Skies continue a clearing trend as high pressure over the deep south works closer to the area. The area should be under clear skies by around 10 pm. the present forecast is in good shape and no adjustments are planned. Radiational cooling more optimal overnight should allow for pockets of frost to develop mainly in Lake and Volusia co`s. RETIREMENT...This is my final forecast discussion, and I will be retiring tonight. I am so fortunate to have been able to witness central Florida weather for the past 50 years, as well as forecast it from this office for 25 of those. As I leave the way for the next generation of very capable professionals in this office going forward, I want to thank all the members of the media, emergency managers, fellow employees and lastly you, the many and diverse users of our products. I would take satisfaction knowing that some how you have used, and continue to benefit in your own way from our forecasts and warnings, as we watch out 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Have a happy 2024. John Pendergrast
  8. Carvers Gap
    Which makes sense given that the 2010s were full of La Ninas.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is just crazy cold, both the ensemble and control. The control has portions of Nashville and southern KY below zero by mid month due to snowfall. That coincides with the GEPS also being cold at 12z. Could be a blip...might not be. The timeframe from Jan10-14 looks pretty cold here, and it isn't overly warm prior to that.
  10. Carvers Gap
    To me this is remarkable. Within the next 10 days, look at the potential change from AN to BN over the continent. And that lower image only slowly burns itself out after that slide..... Those are ensemble temp departures during our coldest time of the year. So, if true, those are really cold temps. The 12z EPS is much colder. Let's see if that trend holds.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro ensembles have BN temps through mid-Jan. We can ride with that and worry about the rest later.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Some pretty big differences in the 12z EPS when compared to 0z.
  13. Carvers Gap
    As for why the snow record is messed up? I don't know, but is is missing snow for sure. I do know that the scientific method involves hypothesis, collecting data, and then making sound decisions based upon that data. Data will often tell us if we are right or wrong in our hypothesis. Bad data will often give us incorrect results. Corrupt data makes it very difficult to find the truth. When we set out with a preconceived notion of truth, and don't bother to look to see if data follows our thinking....we may miss bigger truths. I get super uncomfortable when people (who ask good questions) are seen as crazy or just sidelined. Now, all of us probably get irritated when someone maybe implies that we are wrong. Nobody likes being wrong. But when cooler heads prevail, often we don't mind it. So, with that in mind I will say this. Is it warmer than it was 30 years ago? Yes, especially at higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Am I getting less snow? Maybe. Maybe not. I think higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere are certainly seeing much less snow. I think there are fewer big storms IMBY. Summer lasts longer, but spring seems to come later(not this year I don't think). Is it due to manmade causes? Possibly. But it could also be something which we do not see, and maybe that worries me the most. It bothers me to see people have to accept things that may or may not be true or may be partially true. This could also be a much larger cycle that we don't understand. My overall belief is that if we can produce less pollution, that is a good thing no matter what side of the aisle one is. Is it reasonable to eliminate all pollution? Probably not at this stage in history, and that is probably not realistic. But I still want my grandkids to breathe clean air, drink clean water, catch fish/hunt, and have wild places to visit. But I also do like plentiful electricity, A/C, cars, planes, and computers. Are data sets being corrupted to fit an agenda? Yes, and I don't completely understand why. I have my theories, but will probably keep those to myself for now. The last four or five years certainly don't give me that comfy feeling that I am being told the truth. For all of those reasons, I think asking great questions, listening to others with different opinions, and being a critical thinker are important, just as they always have been. I don't like group think, and sometimes I think when questions are not asked...there is a risk that we have confirmation bias. The missing data does make me think that confirmation bias is in play.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I will work-up a response to the "why" the data is corrupted, but I will tread lightly. It will be in the banter section at some point. Anyway, here is the 12z GEPS in the LR. The GEFS isn't too different. That ain't warm. I would urge caution on borrowing trouble w/ the warm-up which likely follows. The warm-up is likely during week 3, but the Canadian model doesn't have it yet. I have seen it snow like crazy during warm-ups as well. If we take that the current pattern began that day after Christmas, I tend to think this current pattern lasts until mid-Jan at least. We may be in a deal where we are in a 2-3 week pattern cycle instead of a 4-6. That said, Cosgrove mentioned often that January thaws are very normal and expected. We also need to be cautious that some of what we see during weeks 3-4 may be a transition to a newer pattern which we can't see....alt that we can see is the transition. We also need to remember that we live east of the Apps and not in the MA.
  15. Carvers Gap
    When I first started following the weather, I don't remember many folks talking about the MJO or the Indian Ocean. Our weather now is almost completely driven by the Pacific. I am not sure if that is because the NAO was in a positive state for so long(fewer negative episodes), or if the PDO has been stronger driver and it has links to the MJO. I think the PDO is sneaky important. It correlates (normally, but maybe not right now) with the Nino/Nina cycle which also has some connection to the MJO. But I wonder where we think the MJO/ENSO state is the most important...I wonder if the PDO is the trump card and the reason we haven't figured that out is that it is most times in sync w/ ENSO. That PDO really sets the trough/ridge setup in NA.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Of course.... But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall. Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI. La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way. Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me. This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90. The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI. For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate. Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one. My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone. Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves. The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes. I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks. Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area. I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The TYS snow record is also a mess....it might be worse than TRI.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yep. 14-15 was a winter where I also noticed data missing. I recorded almost 30" at my house, and I live in the bubble at lower elevations. But I know this, the snowfall maps made for TRI snowstorms(after the fact) are almost always underdone by 1-2" of snow, sometimes more. I used to correct the maps, but have since stopped. It isn't worth my time.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yes, we live in a place(greater TRI area) where strange stuff happens during snowstorms. I remember when @BlunderStormcouldn't buy a flake of snow one winter due to an odd snow shadow there that was only prevalent that winter due to the angle of approach of many of the storms. I have seen Johnson City crippled by snow, and only had 2-3" IMBY. As I noted above, it seems TRI almost always has the lowest denominator total recorded - very suspicious.
  20. Carvers Gap
    My response should probably go in banter. Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much. I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others. I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted). I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed. The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen. Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it. I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation). I don't know if it is political or just poor record keeping by past individuals. And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even during the most recent storms.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Sure. But...I would recommend staying out of the MA forum - LOL. Some of those cats(during the middle of snowstorm) start looking for the back edge of the snow. Some are great posters. The important thing to know is that there are good and bad Nino winters....the 90s have many of the Nino duds. As recent as 09-10 and 14-15, we have had decent ones. Will this be a 90s winter or a mid 2010s winter? We won't know until the end of February. There were many during the mid/late 90s who questioned whether winter would return. MBY yard does better during either a weak La Nina or weak El Nino w/ a negative QBO. I take either state, but they have to be weak. If moderate or strong, then it doesn't tend to work. Is this a strong El Nino? I haven't looked. If it is strong, that is a major East Coast warm signal. I thought it was moderate to weak. Seems like it is a crashing signal right now. Really, we have seen two of the last three winters produce incredible winters for the western 2/3 of the forum areas. Two of those storms were active GOM storm tracks pushing into cold which seeped slowly from the eastern Plains. We saw Mammoth(not our forum area) get near record snows last winter as well as many places in the West. I still have bushes in my yard which are struggling from last December's cold shot. It has been a while since we have had a snowless winter at TRI, but snowless winters are not without precedent(and they generally come in bunches). Those are the worst. I lived through multiple, snowless winters during the 90s. I think at one point, I hadn't seen measurable snow in like two or three years 96-97 to 98-99 were bad....way worse than anything of this past winter. The record for this winter hasn't been completely written yet. If I hadn't seen a wx model, I would say it is about on track for a normal snow winter. There has been snow in the Smokies, and light snow in the northern valleys. Warm start -> flips around mid-winter...that is the climatology even if it is a good winter.. For now I like this timeline: December 31-Jan10 - window for snow Jan 15-25 - hostile to snow Jan 28-Feb28 - good window for snow
  22. Carvers Gap
    Here is the link to the MJO....It is a "choose your own adventure" mess. Remember those books? Click on each model run. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Some refuse to go into warm phases. Some saunter and smell the roses as they progress through 4-6. Some hit the wall in 3 and won't progress! LOL. And their subsequent model runs reflect those almost exactly. Choose your own adventure. What do I think? Same as I have. Good pattern through the 10th(maybe even extended a few days). Then the pattern goes warm for 15-20 days. The last of January and all of February work out. Cosgrove has been really good this winter. I strongly recommend reading his update which should come out tonight.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Complex for sure at this range. The complexity itself likely means it changes many times between now and the event as you all noted. I'll take a stab at it. Weak low pressure - almost a lee side Plateau low. Probably is a handoff to the Piedmont/Coast. Downsloping city right there. Air gets compressed, heats up, and we get warm air on the west side of the Apps...and less precip. Add in some warm nose, and you get that look. On the west side of the eastern valley...cold air gets pushed by counter clockwise flow up against the Plateau. The cold has nowhere to go. Th precip rises through the cold air, further cooling the air column, and you get rates induced snow. I have seen nearly that exact setup during ice storms. I have had 30 degrees at TRI, and 40 in JC/Unicoi.
  24. Carvers Gap
    We have light snow falling as I type this. Though it hasn't accumulated, we have had snow falling off-and-on for almost 24 hours.... I think we are seeing models mishandle the MJO badly....they have been truly terrible of late in handling it. They completely whiffed on cold phases, and I do wonder about the validity of the potential 45 day tour through the warm phases. That may verify, but the warm water over phase 8 should produce rain near the dateline. I also think ensembles are all over the place in the placement of the NAO, and that has huge impacts right along the east coast. Also, it appears to me that modeling is breaking down the Nino far too quickly. The cold stretching from Calgary to Nashville is nearly a textbook Nina signal - that I don't buy(the cold I do...just that it doesn't extend to the coast). If that is the configuration, that cold should go to Savannah, Georgia, and not stop at the Apps. But the big message is the Pacific is likely to be less favorable, and we need the NAO. I don't see overwhelming SER signatures, but I do see an east coast ridge near the coast. To me those are different features (the EC ridge and the SER). As for November, that rule hasn't worked IMBY of late...it for sure normally has some skill, but during the past few Nina winters....it rarely worked. The colder Novembers still had warm DJF averages if I remember correctly for my back yard. It did work for middle and west TN. I do think that when North America cools down during fall, it raises chances of a better winter. The bigger issue was drought during fall - that is a big "tell" in regards to where cold likes to go - it doesn't like heading to dry areas. But you all in west and middle areas, you can't say that you weren't warned over the summer. Nino winter storm tracks favor eastern areas. Next winter, you all "should" be back on deck. Not counting this winter, two of your last three winters have featured significant snow and ice events for middle and west TN - banner winters. And who knows, this winter could still break your way.
  25. Carvers Gap
    LR discussion(brief)....extended ensembles are most definitely sensing the crawling MJO(in warm phases) after mid Jan. We need a counter(block) to that where the NAO doesn't hook into an eastern ridge. We need the trough to slide under that block and hold on. If not, going to be very difficult to get winter to return with much meaningful time left on the clock. That is not a winter cancel post(for after Jan 15th), but more like a special weather advisory with the potential for a watch to be issued at a later date.
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