Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,664

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    It may or may not come to pass, but the model 12z suite across the board for Jan10-15. The GEFS is simply "warmer" but still very cold. Modeling has had this timeframe picked-out for a long time. So, it isn't overly surprising. I would guess there will be some twists and turns along the way, but that is impressive. Honestly, this is what hit Europe a few weeks back it looks like.
  2. Carvers Gap
    This has some 09-10 in it. It is almost a pay me now or pay me later type of pattern. If the system cuts, more cold is coming down. I do wonder if the strong cutter next weekend is what provides the mechanism for this. In other words, modeling is now leaning towards a cutter next weekend, but that in turn, makes it colder during weeks 2-3.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Modeling isn't too far off. I started noticing the CFSv2 with strong highs at the surface undercutting the 500 eastern ridge on the 6z runs. At this range, they are close. I don't think any model has handled the MJO progression very well of late. It is more of a which model has been worse. Here is the GEFS 5d temp profile fro Jan 10-15. The pattern itself begins to slide into place next weekend.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And you know, there is more. Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 for fun.............I will trust that you will look at the stamps to see the duration.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Check out what the control does. The first of the cold hits the US/Canadian border by Jan 7.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And I should add this pattern is within 8 days. The first of it knocks on door at the US/Canadian border by Jan 7.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I am guessing we are getting ready to take a ride on the strat split express. For Jan 10-20, there is probably going to be model mayhem as we get closer (IF this ensembles are even close to accurate). Again, it is pretty rare to get all of NA that cold...and models have tried during past years.). But often extreme patterns are recognized at about this range. So, time will tell.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I hate to overhype this, the CFSv2 has a similar solution as does the CMC. I do caution this could end-up west, but there is very little mechanism to keep it there (no Nina). The GEFS is not much warmer, but it isn't like 500 standard deviations below normal like the others.
  9. Carvers Gap
    This is the cold front the Euro control has during the second weeks of Jan....It is just an example, but impressive. These are departures. Some temps are 45 below normal during the coldest week of the year. Those would create highs below freezing in the Panhandle of FL with lows in the mid to upper teens there. I doubt it comes to pass exactly like that, but that might be the most impressive cold front I have seen generated by a wx model for this time of year. Without snow on the ground, TRI doesn't get out of the teens and drops to below zero. This run is courtesy of a couple of cutters which drop ample snow to our north. Then, as referenced in my previous post(the ensemble!), the PV gets trapped and sent southward. The GEFS is more west, and that makes sense. But this would wreck havoc if it came east without modification.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS is less impressive, but the GEPS/EPS are pretty frigid d10-15. I will post the control in a minute. That big red ball over Greenland is how one fights the MJO. That is a really cold look for NA. And I might caution, we have seen this look many times during the past few winters, and it is TOUGH to get it to verify....but there it is again.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I must say, the late night crew put up some great content. Awesome, ya'll! Tracking on NYE....that is a good thing.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Some decent trends (better than decent) on global ensembles overnight (d10-15). That gets us through the first half of January. If that is our winter, then so be it. This could be our shot. Like several others, I do think we see a warm-up after that....then cool back down. Interesting to see Cosgrove really hammer home that March should be warm, and honestly if this plays out as a cold Jan25-Feb28, we will all probably be glad for the arrival spring. His thinking is that the Nino is going to break down quickly and that La Nina is going to arrive quickly.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Canadian was decent......
  14. Carvers Gap
    Tonight's GEFS ext has rediscovered high latitude blocking. We will watch this trend for the next few days, but modeling seems to be can kicking the MJO warm phases. I can say this, if cold wx was being can kicked in the same way...I would be worried it wouldn't come to pass. Maybe this time the can kicking is in our favor?
  15. Carvers Gap
    One of my kiddos plays for the Pride of the Southland. They are in Orlando. I have been keeping track of the wx there. Frost and freeze advisories are in north Florida. But check this out....what a cool sign off. East Central Florida Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 637 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 .DISCUSSION... ...Below Normal Temperatures Forecast Tonight... ...Patchy Frost Possible North of I-4... Currently-Overnight...Skies continue a clearing trend as high pressure over the deep south works closer to the area. The area should be under clear skies by around 10 pm. the present forecast is in good shape and no adjustments are planned. Radiational cooling more optimal overnight should allow for pockets of frost to develop mainly in Lake and Volusia co`s. RETIREMENT...This is my final forecast discussion, and I will be retiring tonight. I am so fortunate to have been able to witness central Florida weather for the past 50 years, as well as forecast it from this office for 25 of those. As I leave the way for the next generation of very capable professionals in this office going forward, I want to thank all the members of the media, emergency managers, fellow employees and lastly you, the many and diverse users of our products. I would take satisfaction knowing that some how you have used, and continue to benefit in your own way from our forecasts and warnings, as we watch out 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Have a happy 2024. John Pendergrast
  16. Carvers Gap
    Which makes sense given that the 2010s were full of La Ninas.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is just crazy cold, both the ensemble and control. The control has portions of Nashville and southern KY below zero by mid month due to snowfall. That coincides with the GEPS also being cold at 12z. Could be a blip...might not be. The timeframe from Jan10-14 looks pretty cold here, and it isn't overly warm prior to that.
  18. Carvers Gap
    To me this is remarkable. Within the next 10 days, look at the potential change from AN to BN over the continent. And that lower image only slowly burns itself out after that slide..... Those are ensemble temp departures during our coldest time of the year. So, if true, those are really cold temps. The 12z EPS is much colder. Let's see if that trend holds.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro ensembles have BN temps through mid-Jan. We can ride with that and worry about the rest later.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Some pretty big differences in the 12z EPS when compared to 0z.
  21. Carvers Gap
    As for why the snow record is messed up? I don't know, but is is missing snow for sure. I do know that the scientific method involves hypothesis, collecting data, and then making sound decisions based upon that data. Data will often tell us if we are right or wrong in our hypothesis. Bad data will often give us incorrect results. Corrupt data makes it very difficult to find the truth. When we set out with a preconceived notion of truth, and don't bother to look to see if data follows our thinking....we may miss bigger truths. I get super uncomfortable when people (who ask good questions) are seen as crazy or just sidelined. Now, all of us probably get irritated when someone maybe implies that we are wrong. Nobody likes being wrong. But when cooler heads prevail, often we don't mind it. So, with that in mind I will say this. Is it warmer than it was 30 years ago? Yes, especially at higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Am I getting less snow? Maybe. Maybe not. I think higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere are certainly seeing much less snow. I think there are fewer big storms IMBY. Summer lasts longer, but spring seems to come later(not this year I don't think). Is it due to manmade causes? Possibly. But it could also be something which we do not see, and maybe that worries me the most. It bothers me to see people have to accept things that may or may not be true or may be partially true. This could also be a much larger cycle that we don't understand. My overall belief is that if we can produce less pollution, that is a good thing no matter what side of the aisle one is. Is it reasonable to eliminate all pollution? Probably not at this stage in history, and that is probably not realistic. But I still want my grandkids to breathe clean air, drink clean water, catch fish/hunt, and have wild places to visit. But I also do like plentiful electricity, A/C, cars, planes, and computers. Are data sets being corrupted to fit an agenda? Yes, and I don't completely understand why. I have my theories, but will probably keep those to myself for now. The last four or five years certainly don't give me that comfy feeling that I am being told the truth. For all of those reasons, I think asking great questions, listening to others with different opinions, and being a critical thinker are important, just as they always have been. I don't like group think, and sometimes I think when questions are not asked...there is a risk that we have confirmation bias. The missing data does make me think that confirmation bias is in play.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I will work-up a response to the "why" the data is corrupted, but I will tread lightly. It will be in the banter section at some point. Anyway, here is the 12z GEPS in the LR. The GEFS isn't too different. That ain't warm. I would urge caution on borrowing trouble w/ the warm-up which likely follows. The warm-up is likely during week 3, but the Canadian model doesn't have it yet. I have seen it snow like crazy during warm-ups as well. If we take that the current pattern began that day after Christmas, I tend to think this current pattern lasts until mid-Jan at least. We may be in a deal where we are in a 2-3 week pattern cycle instead of a 4-6. That said, Cosgrove mentioned often that January thaws are very normal and expected. We also need to be cautious that some of what we see during weeks 3-4 may be a transition to a newer pattern which we can't see....alt that we can see is the transition. We also need to remember that we live east of the Apps and not in the MA.
  23. Carvers Gap
    When I first started following the weather, I don't remember many folks talking about the MJO or the Indian Ocean. Our weather now is almost completely driven by the Pacific. I am not sure if that is because the NAO was in a positive state for so long(fewer negative episodes), or if the PDO has been stronger driver and it has links to the MJO. I think the PDO is sneaky important. It correlates (normally, but maybe not right now) with the Nino/Nina cycle which also has some connection to the MJO. But I wonder where we think the MJO/ENSO state is the most important...I wonder if the PDO is the trump card and the reason we haven't figured that out is that it is most times in sync w/ ENSO. That PDO really sets the trough/ridge setup in NA.
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Of course.... But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall. Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI. La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way. Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me. This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90. The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI. For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate. Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one. My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone. Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves. The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes. I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks. Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area. I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The TYS snow record is also a mess....it might be worse than TRI.
×
×
  • Create New...