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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that cold air still lurks after the Jan11-14 warm-up. The duration and intensity of that cold shot are still TBD, but it should feel like winter at the very least. With an active STJ(subtropical jet), it is highly unlikely that we know how those systems will interact with the cold. It does look like there be another warm-up(likely due to the MJO in 5-6) between say Jan 19-28th). Then it gets cold again. But, again, we need to see how the NAO sets up around the 11th. Until it is in place, modeling accuracy very likely is going to suffer. Modeling is renown for not handling NAO patterns well. Add in the crappy Pacific pattern on the horizon....balancing the two will be tough.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Does anyone have the PDO number for December?
  3. Carvers Gap
    Cutters? I think that is a response to a temporary southeast ridge and/or standing wave. We haven't had many cutters at all this season as evidenced by the rainfall deficits in middle and western forum areas. The main storm track is the low road at the moment...and that will likely change for the medium range. There are places in the West and Plains with no snow on the ground at all. That said, the MJO influence on future weather is real. Probably the better question IMO is why things are cutting in the medium range? It is the influence of the MJO in my opinion The timeframe from Jan11-14 has almost universally supposed to have been warm. Really, Jan11-25 was supposed to be warm until modeling slipped a cold shot in round Jan15-18ish. MJO 4-6 will by default put the trough in the West unless the NAO can counter it which it might well do. Cosgrove has an interesting article this morning on storms which cut. Basically, with so much projected cold air in place in Canada(remember, our source regions are changing to extremely cold)....that cutter could pull down the mother load which personally I don't want! LOL. Honestly, middle and western areas of our forum need some rain, so cutters are good with me. The main worry w/ the MJO is a stall in phase 6 later this month....if that happens, winter is up for many. But that is still a ways out there, and I think it unlikely. The good thing about cutters is they are going to put down lots of snow to our northwest in the Plains. Of note, TRI is below normal for temps so far for the month of January. That is no surprise. As long as the MJO doesn't stall in 6(and it could), it will likely rotate into colder phases during the last week of January. The cold that we have now is a result of an MJO rotation though colder phases. The difference next time is that the source regions for the cold likely won't be Pacific maritime air. The signal for winter has generally been the second half of winter. We just need the MJO to rotate quickly through warm phases and then out.... Until then, there is cold on the map. And as a reminder, modeling is going to be all over the place. Of note, the MJO doesn't have to be warm during 4-5-6....that is not a set-in-stone rule. Something to watch.
  4. Carvers Gap
    CPC analogs d6-10: 19590102 19630111 19960129 19850129 19781227 19811227 19820105 19680105 19731230 19620114 d8-14 19800126 19681229 19700104 19781229 19590102 19680108 19690110 19940107 19960130 19590117
  5. Carvers Gap
    The NAO that is projected to fire is massive.....we may not necessarily want a big ridge out West. It might snow in Cuba if there was a double block. But looking at the Euro control. We fight off the MJO w/ the NAO, and then the Pac kicks into gear in February. We have seen these looks on models many times for our area...been a while since it has materialized. But....the signal is on modeling right now for a significant cold outbreak from Jan15 to the end of Feb in multiple waves. It fits climatology. The MJO is the thorn, and I look over my shoulder like a TN coach leading at halftime in Tuscaloosa.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS says that everyone east of the Rockies better get their plumber on speed dial.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I don't think I want any part of the 18z GFS. .
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS would freeze rivers in NE TN. 1053 HP now on that run.
  9. Carvers Gap
    1051 hp on the 18z GFS. IF(stress) we begin to see those on modeling consistently, that is a great sign. All of the cold air on model runs today explains why ensembles are jumping around....I DOUBT they are done bouncing.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is like....
  11. Carvers Gap
    Billings, Montana? GREAT town. We just about took a job there. So many great things about Billings. So many great places to eat breakfast, a new library, the rims, Red Lodge is close as is Cody and Bozeman. There is reasonably good access to YNP, and fishing opportunities are almost endless. The north end of the Absarokas is a sneaky good place to vacate. The Paradise Valley around Livingston is also great. If I lived there, I would post maybe 1x per month about weather....I would be fishing the rest of the time!!! LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That cold comes eastward on all ensembles and ext weeklies. It gets kicked. Honestly, maybe the best looking suite of modeling I have seen in over four years. Basically, the cold(posted above in the thumbnail) comes eastward, there is a brief lull after that, and then the pattern reloads again. Buckle up. Could be a wild, wild ride.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I should clarify, the GFS operational is singing the same song as its previous ensembles. When they are out of sync, forecast trouble is brewing.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Wild looking pattern on operationals. I am always concerned about the rug getting pulled out from under us, but....LR ext models have keyed on this time frame for a long time. It is significant to see the CANSIPs slightly below normal, because it almost never is. I think we have some cold weather on the way......I could be wrong, but the 12z GFS is again singing the same song as its previous runs.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And modeling could easily, easily be in error. If I lived in middle and west TN right now, I would be licking my chops. The air mass that is showing up d10-20 is formidable, and for now, that includes E TN / W NC as well. The 0z Euro control was frigid. All 3 global ensemble means are very cold. And to boot, we have potential severe wx next week. And severe wx during winter is often followed by very cold air right after. Let's see if operational modeling starts to connect to ensembles.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Keep an eye on these analogs: 63-64, 58-59, 39-40. Why? Those are the three of the top 5 driest Sept/Octobers on record, and all of them are......El Ninos. I have a post about this in the winter spec thread on page 3 as this past Sept/Oct '23 is on the list(2) of dry Sept/Oct.. They turned cold the second half of winter. We have already seen 63-64 show up in a recent analog package, and now '59 shows up above. Honestly, that is pretty remarkable that there may be some loose connection with very dry Sept/Octobers(Nino years) and the following winter. Even more amazing, I often associate La Nina to dry Fall seasons, but four of the top five on that Sept/Oct list are Nino ENSO states. As for the underlined analogs....I think you all get that. Those winters turned very cold. They might be the three best winter analogs of the past 30 years, and all were on the d8-14 analog CPC list yesterday. Who knows? But interesting.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19590102 19680106 19960129 19620117 19850131 20040102 19811230 19681228 19710107 19940107
  18. Carvers Gap
    I will add that the pattern has almost certainly changed. We aren't seeing excessively warm temps. It is cloudy most days. Temps are marginal. We are getting precip. Welcome to El Nino.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Long range discussion....Jan14+ One other thing to note is a trough is trying to set-up just east of Hawaii, and that often correlates to winter weather here. It is a wonky look over North America at 500, but not unprecedented. I mentioned the mid-court bank shot(HL blocking muting or trumping a bad Pacific), and almost all global ensembles show that setup....this morning. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO win out, but the NAO(we seem to be in a negative cycle now) can be a major driver of winter weather here. Instead of getting the -NAO during late Feb....looks like it will fire during the middle of winter. That "should" put BN heights over the East. Cold will drop into the West first as the Pacific crapfest will almost assuredly force that. But it should bleed eastward and hold. These will likely be modified Arctic/Polar air masses, but timed perfectly with our best climatology for snow. That is about all that we can ask for at this range. NAO vs MJO cage match on deck w/ some SER(holding the folding chair...think pro wrestling) sprinkled in....
  20. Carvers Gap
    It looks to me like there is convection(satellite) in the parts of the Indian Ocean which will lead to a decent amplitude of 4-5-6, and maybe even stalls in 6 for a short period of time. I just don't see anyway around it unless the BOMM is correct. It also looks like the NAO is going to fire and hold. So, it looks like a battle. We have seen this during past Nina winters. NAO hooks into an eastern ridge(I actually don't call it a SER as that hasn't been present this winter so far). I think that happens from Dec 11-14. Then, even though we are in very warm phases of the MJO, it looks like there is potential for very cold air to enter the pattern for our region. Maybe picture the last few winters where cold went into eastern Montana and stretched to the Cumberland Plateau....except this time it gets to western North Carolina IF the NAO can hold on for 15-25 days...then we should benefit from the MJO hitting cold phases at likely lower amplitude (should be higher given the ENSO state, but looks unlikely). There is an outside/somewhat realistic shot we could stay cold from Jan 15-end of Feb.
  21. Carvers Gap
    A dusting of snow is found on the hilltops around Kingsport this morning (Bays and Rock Springs that I could see).
  22. Carvers Gap
    Long range ext ensembles appear to be stuck in phase 3 of the MJO.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And that is exactly what 18z looked like. I had a high of 12 on that run for a day.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I am good with weak Nina characteristics, and maybe we see some of that as this Nino collapses. The 18z is bitterly cold at d+10. That would be a great look. Appreciate everyone as always. Great discussion!
  25. Carvers Gap
    PDO is a sneaky problem.
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