Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,656

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    1051 hp on the 18z GFS. IF(stress) we begin to see those on modeling consistently, that is a great sign. All of the cold air on model runs today explains why ensembles are jumping around....I DOUBT they are done bouncing.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is like....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Billings, Montana? GREAT town. We just about took a job there. So many great things about Billings. So many great places to eat breakfast, a new library, the rims, Red Lodge is close as is Cody and Bozeman. There is reasonably good access to YNP, and fishing opportunities are almost endless. The north end of the Absarokas is a sneaky good place to vacate. The Paradise Valley around Livingston is also great. If I lived there, I would post maybe 1x per month about weather....I would be fishing the rest of the time!!! LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    That cold comes eastward on all ensembles and ext weeklies. It gets kicked. Honestly, maybe the best looking suite of modeling I have seen in over four years. Basically, the cold(posted above in the thumbnail) comes eastward, there is a brief lull after that, and then the pattern reloads again. Buckle up. Could be a wild, wild ride.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I should clarify, the GFS operational is singing the same song as its previous ensembles. When they are out of sync, forecast trouble is brewing.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Wild looking pattern on operationals. I am always concerned about the rug getting pulled out from under us, but....LR ext models have keyed on this time frame for a long time. It is significant to see the CANSIPs slightly below normal, because it almost never is. I think we have some cold weather on the way......I could be wrong, but the 12z GFS is again singing the same song as its previous runs.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And modeling could easily, easily be in error. If I lived in middle and west TN right now, I would be licking my chops. The air mass that is showing up d10-20 is formidable, and for now, that includes E TN / W NC as well. The 0z Euro control was frigid. All 3 global ensemble means are very cold. And to boot, we have potential severe wx next week. And severe wx during winter is often followed by very cold air right after. Let's see if operational modeling starts to connect to ensembles.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Keep an eye on these analogs: 63-64, 58-59, 39-40. Why? Those are the three of the top 5 driest Sept/Octobers on record, and all of them are......El Ninos. I have a post about this in the winter spec thread on page 3 as this past Sept/Oct '23 is on the list(2) of dry Sept/Oct.. They turned cold the second half of winter. We have already seen 63-64 show up in a recent analog package, and now '59 shows up above. Honestly, that is pretty remarkable that there may be some loose connection with very dry Sept/Octobers(Nino years) and the following winter. Even more amazing, I often associate La Nina to dry Fall seasons, but four of the top five on that Sept/Oct list are Nino ENSO states. As for the underlined analogs....I think you all get that. Those winters turned very cold. They might be the three best winter analogs of the past 30 years, and all were on the d8-14 analog CPC list yesterday. Who knows? But interesting.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19590102 19680106 19960129 19620117 19850131 20040102 19811230 19681228 19710107 19940107
  10. Carvers Gap
    I will add that the pattern has almost certainly changed. We aren't seeing excessively warm temps. It is cloudy most days. Temps are marginal. We are getting precip. Welcome to El Nino.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Long range discussion....Jan14+ One other thing to note is a trough is trying to set-up just east of Hawaii, and that often correlates to winter weather here. It is a wonky look over North America at 500, but not unprecedented. I mentioned the mid-court bank shot(HL blocking muting or trumping a bad Pacific), and almost all global ensembles show that setup....this morning. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO win out, but the NAO(we seem to be in a negative cycle now) can be a major driver of winter weather here. Instead of getting the -NAO during late Feb....looks like it will fire during the middle of winter. That "should" put BN heights over the East. Cold will drop into the West first as the Pacific crapfest will almost assuredly force that. But it should bleed eastward and hold. These will likely be modified Arctic/Polar air masses, but timed perfectly with our best climatology for snow. That is about all that we can ask for at this range. NAO vs MJO cage match on deck w/ some SER(holding the folding chair...think pro wrestling) sprinkled in....
  12. Carvers Gap
    It looks to me like there is convection(satellite) in the parts of the Indian Ocean which will lead to a decent amplitude of 4-5-6, and maybe even stalls in 6 for a short period of time. I just don't see anyway around it unless the BOMM is correct. It also looks like the NAO is going to fire and hold. So, it looks like a battle. We have seen this during past Nina winters. NAO hooks into an eastern ridge(I actually don't call it a SER as that hasn't been present this winter so far). I think that happens from Dec 11-14. Then, even though we are in very warm phases of the MJO, it looks like there is potential for very cold air to enter the pattern for our region. Maybe picture the last few winters where cold went into eastern Montana and stretched to the Cumberland Plateau....except this time it gets to western North Carolina IF the NAO can hold on for 15-25 days...then we should benefit from the MJO hitting cold phases at likely lower amplitude (should be higher given the ENSO state, but looks unlikely). There is an outside/somewhat realistic shot we could stay cold from Jan 15-end of Feb.
  13. Carvers Gap
    A dusting of snow is found on the hilltops around Kingsport this morning (Bays and Rock Springs that I could see).
  14. Carvers Gap
    Long range ext ensembles appear to be stuck in phase 3 of the MJO.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And that is exactly what 18z looked like. I had a high of 12 on that run for a day.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I am good with weak Nina characteristics, and maybe we see some of that as this Nino collapses. The 18z is bitterly cold at d+10. That would be a great look. Appreciate everyone as always. Great discussion!
  17. Carvers Gap
    PDO is a sneaky problem.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Plus, the negative NAO isn’t due to fire untold Jan 11ish. I don’t think we will know the outcome of the pattern after that until it is in place. Models have been poor predicting NAOs traditionally. Does it hook and hold into the eastern ridge or does it force BN heights to its south which it should? I think we get a really good pattern. I think the MJO is driving the bus for the next ten days and has been for that last 40-50 days. We see the consequences of the MJO as an EPO or PNA (or lack of)or the retracted jet(which its opposite probably was a driver earlier). Temps mirror the MJO right now very closely, and have been.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I should add that the old rule of thumb when ensembles begin bouncing around....there is very cold air about to enter the pattern. I think that occurs between Jan14-20th potentially - not a lock at this range.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I would strongly urge not to swing each day with the models. They are all over the place right now, even ensembles. With the exception of Jan11-14, most modeling looks very cold for this time of year. There is potential for a really strong cold shot mid-month. Again, I am not bullish for your area for winter...next winter, yes. This winter, no. But anything can happen with a strong Atlantic block. But I can say this, it is better than wall to wall AN temps on modeling for endless days.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Jan 1 Cansips is in....seasonal to BN for all of January.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Timing is slightly different, but both the 12z GEFS/GEPS depict an Arctic air mass d10-15. IMHO, that cold air mass is our shot. There will be a warmup before it if 3-5 days where the NAO hooks into an eastern ridge, then the cold pushes east.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I also think we are entering a time frame which is going to be highly unpredictable and volatile - Nino winters are known for that. Go read Grit's overnight post in the MA forum if you haven't already. Last winter, we could look weeks down the line, and see trouble(meaning now potential for storms). Right now, this could be a wild ride IMHO for areas east of the Plateau. Again, next winter switch shoes.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the weekend storm could begin with some snow/ZR mix on the Plateau and border counties w/ Kentucky and Virginia. The RGEM, at range admittedly, is bullish in that regard. As Tellico noted, the low near the lakes is a menace in terms of thermal profiles. But w/ a good track, NE TN/SW VA could still score on the front end depending on the time of day. Down the line, I think we will have things to track sooner than later from an E TN perspective. I don't see a region wide event at this point. The shoe will be on the other foot next winter as La Nina likely takes hold for the fourth time in five years.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I could easily be wrong(and have been before), but medium and LR modeling looks about the same as yesterday...if not just a bit better. I think we will see waves of cold push eastward with intermittent ridges. How long does that last? IDK. The NAO block is stout on most modeling. I doubt that modeling is handling that Atlantic block well right now - that could be a good thing or a bad thing. Often times, we don't know the pattern until the block is in place which is around Jan. 11. In E TN, we don't always have to have the Pacifici(see my winter ideas) which is why El Nino is better here....more confluence. It has been my experience that El Nino winters don't always produce multiple storms, but a few which are pretty decent. While the idea of the Pacific needing to be good is an idea that has grown on me, there are winters where the NAO drove the pattern in the East. That said, the MJO of late has been very difficult to trump. Cosgrove has also noted that MJO plots may be partially in error, and that satellite obs might be the only accurate way to measure it. He also noted(and I can barely understand the science)that there is a linkage between the MJO and higher latitudes, that if it doesn't get established, makes the MJO moot. Either way, I think an actual winter pattern is upon us....and we don't have to wait months at a time. We can look at each storm for winter precip potential.
×
×
  • Create New...