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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The good thing about that loop....it appears to push the MJO more quickly through the warmer phases. It is less of a crawl. It only takes 7 days to get across 4 and 5 instead of 15 as some previous models runs had it. It makes me think that time in warm phases will be short lived.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sitting here in Gray, TN, watching waves of rain and sleet roll through.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is flirting with greatness. The cold outbreak at the end of that run is simply brutal, and like the 18z GFS last night, a glimpse of the pattern’s potential. Wow.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove had his weekly update last night. Here is a quote from him: That rare case of a cAk vortex in Michigan is important in that it will be very tough for anyone living east of the Rocky Mountains to see any warm air. Most of the schemes show a brief moderation to the right of the Mississippi River and Great Lakes in the 16-20 day time frame. But the weeks 5 and 6 outlines seem to have a +PNA/-AO/-NAO alignment.So for all of you who were singing the blues about being bypassed for winter from the Great Plains to the East Coast, this is a chance for normality. And maybe something more. Like perhaps a "for real" snow and ice event in the Mid-Atlantic and New England states in the last week of January and much of next month.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Models are feeling the MJO this morning. It will be interesting to see if they continue trending that way today. They have the MJO rolling into phase 4 by the 15th. By the 21st, modeling(running on about a 7 day lag) has a ridge in the East. So, I think our window is reasonably set. From Jan 14-21st.....that is the first real window and probably need to focus on that last storm in the series. Of note, the Euro ext rolls that ridge right on through, and it gets cold after about a week of what will likely be a welcomed warm-up. Whew! The 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS got colder last night. Their ensemble snow means(GEPS/GEFS) are much stronger today for the entire state. The 0z EPS is warmer(not crazy warmer or anything like that) so that is something to watch. Operational modeling was off-and-on a bit warmer overnight. However, we are seven days out from what is likely the first cold front to roll through. The core of cold air arrives about 5 days after that - I think(I probably should go back and check). I still think it wise to let the ensembles lead this. As a final note, when extremely cold air is forecast for the United States....modeling(especially operationals) are going to bounce around all over the place. As a general rule, I think modeling tends to very much underestimate how far surface level cold advances. Beware of ice.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Kentucky looks good, and so does Auburn. Gonna be a battle!
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think for middle and west TN this is correct. I will have to check for MBY in NE TN. We have been saddled to the MJO for three years in MBY, and it grows tiresome!!!! But, I do think your observation is interesting. Likely, the redevelopment of the NAO during winter is maybe responsible for that? We went many years without decent NAO blocking. It would show-up during late March or April, but we could never seem to get it during winter. So, maybe Atlantic blocking can be a trump card to a bad Pacific? Just spitballing, but maybe. As you have very accurately noted, the warm phases of the MJO do have exceptions to the rule.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Still a long way to go. Models (I am sure) are not done bouncing around. I have tracked potential cold like this. Sometimes it results in a simple cold front - frustrating! And sometimes it results in December '22 which were the coldest wind chills(with the exception of 1985) that I have ever felt. As you and I have discussed, we still have dead shrubs in our yards or at least rough looking shrubs. I have one bush that is still shedding leaves over a year later! My fig tree was taken back to the roots. It killed one of my rosemary plants. I do like what I see on ensembles. Honestly, we probably have a better chance of snow if they are correct. We will obviously get a better idea of what the details are during the coming days for sure. This is a very dynamic and fluid set of circumstances w/ the STJ potentially interacting(or not) with cold air, and also the MJO still lurking. Fun day. I hope we have more of it tomorrow.
  9. Carvers Gap
    See the post right above the one you just posted.... Yeah, I think most know to take that type of run with a grain of salt, but I don't discount it(just think it is highly unlikely). I should note that isn't the only model to show that type of extreme during that past few days. So, if the GFS is wrong, it won't be alone. The CMC and Euro control have both had some crazy cold runs. The CMC had a 1074 high at 12z. It is very rare for an extreme of that nature to verify, but it is not without precedent in NE TN w/ snowfall present. So, I wouldn't say it is unrealistic. It has happened before, and likely will occur again. We have seen that type of cold here a few times in my lifetime - 85, 94, 96, and I am sure I am missing several years. That said...just last December('22) modeling portrayed -30 to -40 below zero wind chills here(over snowless ground), and nailed every bit of it. In 1985, it hit -24F where I lived. Wind chills were off the cart. I was under my house trying to thaw out pipes. I probably sat it a K-Mart parking lot helping my dad change an alternator around that time as well. It was brutal. And I should add, that it isn't just modeling currently showing those extremes. The CPC has used 1994, 1996, and 1985 in their analog packages during the past few days. Maybe those are GFS generated. IDK. I will always say that to be right in the weather, always bet against the extreme - always. One will rarely be wrong. I can concur with that, and that is true now as well. We will for sure know more during the coming days. Moderation is usually the trend, and we know that. But...there is nothing on any model run that I would consider unrealistic. Highly unlikely? Absolutely, and we know that. Without precedent? No. Though, they do flirt w/ all-time record lows....they are sill within reason of the region's most extreme weather. Honestly, those wind chills are similar to what many experienced in December of '22.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Big thing is to sit back and watch trends over the next few days. This could be great or not great. Trends often don't favor us in the Upper South, but sometimes they do. If it works out -> bonus. If not -> lots of other great things to do in life!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Vols looking good in hoops tonight.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That was just for posterity. I highly doubt we swing that, but we can dream, right! I will say that the pattern may try to reload yet again after that. Wherever that boundary sets up is likely gonna get hammered.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Amazing.
  14. Carvers Gap
    MRX put out an initial "heads up" for colder weather and above normal precip. Just for posterity.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And when we see temps like that....winter often ends right after that. So, a slow burn like the ensembles is what I am hoping for.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I don't know that the ensemble supports the OP(and it won't at this range!), but the temps on the ensemble are just about as cold as one can get at this range.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The total run is sicker...another storm is incoming as it ends.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The actual snowfall (Kuchera) for the entire event plus some bonus upslope is crazy sick.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That run is an all-timer in many aspects.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Very rarely do we see all-time record lows show up on modeling....very rarely. But that run is flirting with all-time record lows, and probably sets them in some areas.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Whoa....that is cold
  22. Carvers Gap
    Analogs got them both.....I like that!
  23. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone , remind me of your year in the 70s which you like? I believe the analog package got it.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Brought to you by the letter C (think Sesame Street) and the words cold and CPC: @Holston_River_Rambler, you are too young to be viewing this. This is rated R as in for REALLY old people. Analogs d6-10 19850131 19590102 19700102 19781228 19760102 19710104 19800125 19960130 19681229 19630111 Analogs d10-14 19800126 19700105 19680108 19960131 19590117 19780129 19610127 19620117 20040104 19820107
  25. Carvers Gap
    I will say this, the ski slopes in the SE have to be licking their chops. Super happy for them.
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