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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I think I have made a mistake. What I thought was a change in continuity - is not. It is phase 8 to phase 1 w/ AN heights over the Mountain West and norther Plains. The model is progressing as planned. That also means the 12z EPS was in phase 8/1...good sign.
  2. Carvers Gap
    There is a pretty epic cold pattern on a lot of modeling....but the fail potential here, and I must warn you, is much higher than the mid-January set-up. But if the cold verifies...great pattern potentially. If it doesn't....that is just the way it goes. So, we wait.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I have a bunch of slides, but I think the MJO is so conflicted that I am hesitant to post some of the extreme cold showing up. I think (and a lot of modeling supports this) that the MJO rotates through phase 8....but there is a school of thought that it dodges 8 and crosses back into the warm phases w/ barely any time in the cold phases. We have a decent majority showing cold phases of the MJO....but the EMON is iffy. I also didn't like the end of the 12z EPS today as it broke continuity....and looked like the MJO flipped warm. So, I am going to play my cards close today....and look for trends over the next 48 hours. The CPC 3-4 week forecast has BN temps, but beware.... The GMON MJO.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just chilling until this gets into range. Pretty severe cold shot showing up on lr ext modeling from say Feb 18-25. It is very apparent on both the CFSv2 and Weeklies control. That looks like consequences from the SSW from January. Crazy looking pattern. The Euro control has nearly two feet of snow over TRI.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies (mean surface temps) are quite cold. As for the SSW, the MJO rotating back into 4-6 is an outside concern, but that has been brewing for a few days. The MJO has been in error most time this winter when it does anything but take the cold and warm tours. Could be a loop back into 6 early on, but after that should be good. The strat split may not help/hurt us until early or mid March.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control (weeklies) snowfall map is significant.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerbeat me to it. Just too good not to have in the main thread.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19800207 19530209 19650228 19680207 20040209 19770211 19780216 19700209 19860206 20060207
  9. Carvers Gap
    As noted over the summer, the Mountain West would likely see their best winter early. El Nino winters are no bueno for Montana and Wyoming. Cooke City, Montana, has bare ground showing and pavement on their streets is seen. Not sure I ever remember seeing that happen. That is a major hit for an area dependent on snow for snow machines. My guess is that drought will develop quite quickly for the summer, and that is not good news for obvious reasons. Again, I am a little careful as to how I word things so as it doesn't provide an easy search in a search engine for parties up to no good.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Don't really have much to add today. The cold is coming into focus, but really we have about another week before really getting anything into a reasonable range to track. Been following the Tennessee-Virginia vs NCAA case.
  11. Carvers Gap
    We gettin' ready to fix that problem for ya. LOL. The battle is under way. Donde vs the NCAA.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Better WiFi now...The Euro Weeklies also are colder w/ the control being colder - very cold to be exact. Looks like ensembles are swing the cold and a likely strong rotation into phase 8 of the MJO. Pattern change is at about d14 and progressing. The colder ensemble looks(and the gefs was cold at 12z) tell me the warmer individuals are slowly getting tossed as we get closer.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has the cold here by the 14th and is quicker by four days compared to the Weeklies which was derived from 0z. To have the cold here as the tough arrives implies a storm in that mix to draw the air down. I don’t have a great internet connection, but great 12z suite.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 12z GFS was a pretty good run.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, good sign to see that. Maybe the only "fly in the ointment" is the Euro Weeklies have been trending slightly warmer with each run, but still cold. That said, they did the exact same thing around Christmas.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Or I got an early look at the 18z run which has a 1052 at 372.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 2m temps on the GEPS were not warm at all - the opposite. I look at the GEFS for trends. It is cooling off. The GFS at 18z has the cold front again. Over time, ensembles will begin to add or subtract colder individuals. So, watching trends means the model is doing exactly that. I have heard a rule that if the GEPS is cold and getting colder...pay attention.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS puts the Lower 48 in the freezer. The GEFS isn't far behind. Ensembles are cooling off.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 1050 high at the end of the 18z GFS shows us the possibility of the upcoming pattern. I would be very surprised to see any cold get buried in the West after the 15th.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the high for January will be 70 and the low will be 3 at TRI. That is pretty amazing, especially given that those two occurred roughly 7 days apart.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Some of the great winter patterns of E TN are mid-Feb to mid-March. Got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I am somewhere between hold'em and run! LOL. Anyway, storm track looks like a classic Nino end game. No idea if it verifies, but it could certainly be worse.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Right now we are -0.9. Going to have to hold that during the next three days.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think it repeats the mid-Jan pattern. It is not out of the realm of possibility that these temps will be colder vs the norm. The key is getting a storm to deepen earlier than later in the pattern. Modeling is probably not going to be able to spot that at this range. If I was wanting to possibly find a thorn, it would be the SSW likes to dump cold in Asia as a first choice. If I was going half empty, I would say we get the trough but no source region for cold. I think we will be good though.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Cold won't usually flip instantaneously. That said, cold will be washed out at this range. Could easily be colder than that look. The EPS has had a wicked warm bias at this range all winter.
  25. Carvers Gap
    We have talked about the delay a bunch. Convection over the MC and convection near Darwin is the reason. When it fires, the MJO is headed for 6. Yes, it should move through 8. We are actually out of phase 6 today - fingers crossed that we say out. Modeling busted hugely by stalling it in 6 - it appears for now. The MJO has kept chugging along. Technically, it is in a colder phase now which is phase 7 during the MJO. There is a loop that may(or may not) occur which is the push back on surface temps on the Euro Weeklies. Trends right now are to move the MJO at higher amplitudes into 8, and earlier than prognosticated - this is important...I don't think modeling has responded to that phase 8 trend yet. Last time, modeling didn't catch that until around d10 - the mid Jan cold shot was missed by modeling as modeling seems to wash out MJO signals until inside d10. The intensity of warm wx was also caught late. I think we have also said that if this was similar to January, can kicking would be likely. It is very common for an eastern ridge to break down slowly as it is super stable. The pattern flip during late December was also delay about 5 days. That said, the 500 pattern is right on schedule. But just because we have a trough over the EC doesn't mean cold immediately dumps into it. In fact, I think this forum has been the most conservative in saying the cold would be delayed - Webber called for an early flip as did a couple of other mets. We have consistently said that the cold would not arrive until mid-month. Interestingly, we are going to finish right around seasonal temps for January at TRI.
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