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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The Euro ext (weeklies) might give us a five day warm-up from Jan20-25...then back in the barrel.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I was in Knoxville that winter. KCS went to extended school days so that they didn't have to go Saturdays. Many schools systems still have 30mins extra built into their days due to that winter.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, snow is a great insulator.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The Euro ext brings some good context to the end of the EPS. The EPS erases all HL blocking in a whiff at about 360. The Weeklies do the same, but.....they roll the ridge through and pop a ridge out West. And off we go again. Fun times - truly.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yep, no snow in E TN would bring rebellion.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, and it is highly unlikely the boundary is correct at this point. Everyone north of a line from New Orleans to Atlanta to the Research Triangle is in the game. It is HIGHLY likely that modeling under-doing the extent of the lower level cold. And we are still seeing some pretty wild swings, even on ensembles. I think a 95-96 type of storm seems likely. Where that axis would be, IDK. The almost certain warm-up between Jan 20-30....folks might welcome it with open arms!!!
  7. Carvers Gap
    The pattern which is showing up is one where a major winter storm will often show up....we will see.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Crazy to see that on modeling. Likely modeling is too extreme and will modify as we get closer, but folks probably need to take a minute and just admire the extreme on the CMC operational and also Euro control(1050s). This reminds me a lot of the west TN ice storm a few years ago...maybe displaced eastward. This is the kind of airmass that brings snow on snow - IF real.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I would think with an active STJ this could get wild somewhere in the upper south if this air mass is real.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control has 4-7" over Nashville metro. Here is the 12z GEFS ensemble. IF we get snow with an air mass that is already that cold without snow in E TN and N GA....that could set records if snow fell here. I would say my misgivings would be that this air mass could stall. Where it stalls, there is likely to be an over-running event. Does it stall on the Plateau again? E TN folks would croak. Does it go to the Atlantic? Likely.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Oh, there is snow. And there is cold.... Here are just a few of my favorites from the Euro control run(extension of the operational). This is where it would have gone after 240.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for checking. It(that run....no idea what reality will bring) is going to push for the record for the Lower 48. No idea if this materializes, but the air mass shown will have few rivals if it verifies. I need to check the control.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And we are talking single digits for highs. At 270, nobody is above 20F in the forum area. The highs in northern MS might reach 21.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I watch the EPS control on this as it is essentially a continuation of the operational run....kind of like seeing the full run of the operational GFS. I thought it was holding back the cold air a bit too much. But, then it sent it all.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Is that a NA record? 1074?
  16. Carvers Gap
    ...And if we can score while the MJO is crappy, that is a bonus.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an old school rule of thumb....if you want heavy snow, you want to be right on the rain/snow boundary.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Fighting the SER on the CMC and GFS at 12z. The MJO is FUNKY this morning. It is highly likely going to loop back to the colder phases before progressing quickly through the warmer phases. We are still about nine days out from this......ensembles are the way to go. The operationals are simply one of about 25-50 individual members at this range. Like I said, wild ride. Models will change some(or a lot) as new data is added.
  19. Carvers Gap
    And then look at this 30 day map from the Euro ext, and look at the Feb 69' map from above.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19680109 19800127 19690110 19681230 20040104 19700109 19590104 19590117 19630130 19690115 Any time I see an analog triple weighted, I get curious. I am NOT predicting this here, but merely showing you what I found. And there it is....a month where the NAO trumped a bad Pacific. So then I looked in my weather links folder and found this: https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Snow 1969.pdf And then I found this old post by Foothills: And this: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar And this: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/100-hour-snowstorm-february-1969 And this: https://www.webberweather.com/1960s-winter-storms-nc.html
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is sharply colder. Is it right? No idea. It simply accentuated the Greenland block instead of the Alaskan block. For me, this is just a variation of the same idea. It will probably be one of several as new data tweaks model output each day.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Definitely eastward on the run so far. I am out to 252 on Tropical Tidbits.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I hate to use the word "caved" at the range, because I have no idea what reality is going to be. However, the 18z GFS looks very similar out to the 216hour run of the 12z EPS, GEFS, GEPS.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Amazingly, we had one of the longest streaks of below freezing(maybe broke the streak at TRI) during the late 2010s. But yeah, at our latitude (even during the colder winters of the 70s and 80s, lower elevations tend to come up for air) a good window here might be 5-7 days. A really good window might be 7-10 days. An exceptional window would be 10-14 days. To me, this looks like a two-for. We get a cold shot Jan 13-20. Then, we warm-up. Then, in February we do it all again. The actual window for snow might be something like the 15th-20th. But that is speculation on my part. Some of those cold shots could be suppression city. We need cold, but we don't need it to be cold in Tampa.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, there is too much of a good thing...and we are flirting with that in the LR. It is pretty rare to see ensembles this cold. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SE edge pulled back some....but really the 12z suite cooled off a bunch from an ensemble perspective.
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