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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Plus, the negative NAO isn’t due to fire untold Jan 11ish. I don’t think we will know the outcome of the pattern after that until it is in place. Models have been poor predicting NAOs traditionally. Does it hook and hold into the eastern ridge or does it force BN heights to its south which it should? I think we get a really good pattern. I think the MJO is driving the bus for the next ten days and has been for that last 40-50 days. We see the consequences of the MJO as an EPO or PNA (or lack of)or the retracted jet(which its opposite probably was a driver earlier). Temps mirror the MJO right now very closely, and have been.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I should add that the old rule of thumb when ensembles begin bouncing around....there is very cold air about to enter the pattern. I think that occurs between Jan14-20th potentially - not a lock at this range.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I would strongly urge not to swing each day with the models. They are all over the place right now, even ensembles. With the exception of Jan11-14, most modeling looks very cold for this time of year. There is potential for a really strong cold shot mid-month. Again, I am not bullish for your area for winter...next winter, yes. This winter, no. But anything can happen with a strong Atlantic block. But I can say this, it is better than wall to wall AN temps on modeling for endless days.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Jan 1 Cansips is in....seasonal to BN for all of January.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Timing is slightly different, but both the 12z GEFS/GEPS depict an Arctic air mass d10-15. IMHO, that cold air mass is our shot. There will be a warmup before it if 3-5 days where the NAO hooks into an eastern ridge, then the cold pushes east.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I also think we are entering a time frame which is going to be highly unpredictable and volatile - Nino winters are known for that. Go read Grit's overnight post in the MA forum if you haven't already. Last winter, we could look weeks down the line, and see trouble(meaning now potential for storms). Right now, this could be a wild ride IMHO for areas east of the Plateau. Again, next winter switch shoes.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the weekend storm could begin with some snow/ZR mix on the Plateau and border counties w/ Kentucky and Virginia. The RGEM, at range admittedly, is bullish in that regard. As Tellico noted, the low near the lakes is a menace in terms of thermal profiles. But w/ a good track, NE TN/SW VA could still score on the front end depending on the time of day. Down the line, I think we will have things to track sooner than later from an E TN perspective. I don't see a region wide event at this point. The shoe will be on the other foot next winter as La Nina likely takes hold for the fourth time in five years.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I could easily be wrong(and have been before), but medium and LR modeling looks about the same as yesterday...if not just a bit better. I think we will see waves of cold push eastward with intermittent ridges. How long does that last? IDK. The NAO block is stout on most modeling. I doubt that modeling is handling that Atlantic block well right now - that could be a good thing or a bad thing. Often times, we don't know the pattern until the block is in place which is around Jan. 11. In E TN, we don't always have to have the Pacifici(see my winter ideas) which is why El Nino is better here....more confluence. It has been my experience that El Nino winters don't always produce multiple storms, but a few which are pretty decent. While the idea of the Pacific needing to be good is an idea that has grown on me, there are winters where the NAO drove the pattern in the East. That said, the MJO of late has been very difficult to trump. Cosgrove has also noted that MJO plots may be partially in error, and that satellite obs might be the only accurate way to measure it. He also noted(and I can barely understand the science)that there is a linkage between the MJO and higher latitudes, that if it doesn't get established, makes the MJO moot. Either way, I think an actual winter pattern is upon us....and we don't have to wait months at a time. We can look at each storm for winter precip potential.
  9. Carvers Gap
    La Nina winters east of the Apps are just non starters....
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the 0z GFS/GEFS and CMC, I think higher elevations (especially higher elevations like John's local) and maybe even valley locations might be back in the game.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I am not ready to write this storm off yet. The GFS and CMC at 0z, though thermally a wreck, have decent low placement. I they can somewhat re-intensify the storm in that spot....could be good. They are super close right now....as in southwest Virginia is in the game right now.
  12. Carvers Gap
    On a positive note, the 18z GFS is just wave after wave of very cold air.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The weaker, slower bias on modeling right now is going to have to be reckoned with. I don't know if it is new programming, bad data, or something else.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I used to watch Bam a lot...but they started flip flopping so much...they had to be right at some point. But generally, yes, they are very informative. Just so I don't have to post twice....for a fun look, go to hour 84 on the RGEM. Craziness.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Again, with it being weaker less cold will be involved in the NW quadrant. I have not looked at time of day, but it could be icy. Here is the comparison of the 12z GEFS to the 18z GEFS. New is on the left.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensemble is a 100% clean pass.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, some guys in the MA forum mentioned the same thing(mets). I wonder if there is a model bias to cut storms during El Nino due to "model memory" from the past three years. IDK - just spitballing. If models "learn," they may have developed some Nina habits. Used to (I know you know this), we wanted a storm to the SE of us and it would trend NW. Now, I have no idea where we want it on modeling. The cutter after that....maybe that is where we want it! LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Temp profiles are still not the best but the 18z GFS followed the 12z CMC/Euro with what is almost a clean pass. One more jog like that, and it will all be southeast of us. Not sure if the net result is different, but a pretty big move...quicker, weaker, SE.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Some changes to the 18z GFS re: this weekend.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, I do think we have more to track right now than last year's barren landscape(after we moved through the New Year 2022). I still hold out some minor hope that this weekend's system trends southeast enough for somebody in the forum are to score. West Virginia looks like the big winner for now, and also Pennsylvania.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Where the NAO block is placed matters bigly. The GEFS is on an island as it places the block slightly further eastward. The EPS and GEPS are right over Greenland. On the Alaskan side, we really don't want the ridge over the Aleutians. It can work provided the NAO is in the right place....but it leaves less room for error. Both the GEPS/EPS have some iteration of an EPO ridge. That kicks the cold into the nation's mid-section. The GEFS likely has more cutters as the SER is visibly present. The GEPS/EPS are probably more sliders. Phasing w/ the GEPS/EPS would occur to our south and southeast. All of that said, a blend of the three models would provide a decent winter wx pattern. I should note that these are 7 day snapshots and not one day. I think we will see some variability in reality versus a locked-in pattern. Cold descending into the Plains and racing eastward is the pattern of my youth. We get that w/ the GEPS/EPS combo. The GEFS is more of what has occurred during the past decade. So which model has been more accurate w/ the MJO? I don't know. They have all been pretty bad. American modeling wants to take the warm tour Here are some MJO plots. In general, the plots where it stalls in 2/3 (or loops)...the better the pattern. The plots where it goes high amplitude into 4-6, the worse the pattern. I tend to gravitate to whichever pattern is worse... But that likely is just a hangover from Nina winters on my part. Truly, the MJO "should" move quickly through 4-6 or resist going there at all. There should be enough precip in the regions of 8-1-2 (dateline south Hawaii and off the eastern coast of Africa), that it should counter anything firing over Indonesia. That said, you can see a fairly good connection between the panels above and the ones posted just below. I have said it before and will say it again, we are going to need an NAO block to get through the second half of January. So far, it looks promising.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I still have my doubts today (different thought than yesterday I know) as to how cold it gets, but there is a chance the PV could get trapped w/ the NAO firing and a slightly displace Alaskan block - a double block. There is a slight SER showing up(when is there not?), so I am not sure that suppression will be an issue. Looks like a warm-up from say Jan 8-9, and then cold is replenished. The MJO is very interesting this morning. Some modeling has it looping back into 2......That said, there is potential for severe cold...but Nino patterns tend to find a way to moderate cold air, and that isn't always a bad thing if one likes snow.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful pattern now after Jan 10.........block city.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the surface, the CMC is weaker, but it its a clean pass. The GFS was almost a clean pass. The trend so far is to consolidate the slp as Miller A vs a hybrid. Models aren't there yet, but trended that way. Also, for TRI and the Plateau...looks icy.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Tagging onto @1234snow, I think we are going to see very cold air enter into the pattern. I would say 60/40 that it goes into the West....but I am not confident that it can't make it to Cuba as well. If that is what is about to occur(extreme cold into the Lower 48), it is going to be model havoc for some time with lots of swings.
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