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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    La Nina winters east of the Apps are just non starters....
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the 0z GFS/GEFS and CMC, I think higher elevations (especially higher elevations like John's local) and maybe even valley locations might be back in the game.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I am not ready to write this storm off yet. The GFS and CMC at 0z, though thermally a wreck, have decent low placement. I they can somewhat re-intensify the storm in that spot....could be good. They are super close right now....as in southwest Virginia is in the game right now.
  4. Carvers Gap
    On a positive note, the 18z GFS is just wave after wave of very cold air.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The weaker, slower bias on modeling right now is going to have to be reckoned with. I don't know if it is new programming, bad data, or something else.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I used to watch Bam a lot...but they started flip flopping so much...they had to be right at some point. But generally, yes, they are very informative. Just so I don't have to post twice....for a fun look, go to hour 84 on the RGEM. Craziness.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Again, with it being weaker less cold will be involved in the NW quadrant. I have not looked at time of day, but it could be icy. Here is the comparison of the 12z GEFS to the 18z GEFS. New is on the left.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensemble is a 100% clean pass.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, some guys in the MA forum mentioned the same thing(mets). I wonder if there is a model bias to cut storms during El Nino due to "model memory" from the past three years. IDK - just spitballing. If models "learn," they may have developed some Nina habits. Used to (I know you know this), we wanted a storm to the SE of us and it would trend NW. Now, I have no idea where we want it on modeling. The cutter after that....maybe that is where we want it! LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Temp profiles are still not the best but the 18z GFS followed the 12z CMC/Euro with what is almost a clean pass. One more jog like that, and it will all be southeast of us. Not sure if the net result is different, but a pretty big move...quicker, weaker, SE.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Some changes to the 18z GFS re: this weekend.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, I do think we have more to track right now than last year's barren landscape(after we moved through the New Year 2022). I still hold out some minor hope that this weekend's system trends southeast enough for somebody in the forum are to score. West Virginia looks like the big winner for now, and also Pennsylvania.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Where the NAO block is placed matters bigly. The GEFS is on an island as it places the block slightly further eastward. The EPS and GEPS are right over Greenland. On the Alaskan side, we really don't want the ridge over the Aleutians. It can work provided the NAO is in the right place....but it leaves less room for error. Both the GEPS/EPS have some iteration of an EPO ridge. That kicks the cold into the nation's mid-section. The GEFS likely has more cutters as the SER is visibly present. The GEPS/EPS are probably more sliders. Phasing w/ the GEPS/EPS would occur to our south and southeast. All of that said, a blend of the three models would provide a decent winter wx pattern. I should note that these are 7 day snapshots and not one day. I think we will see some variability in reality versus a locked-in pattern. Cold descending into the Plains and racing eastward is the pattern of my youth. We get that w/ the GEPS/EPS combo. The GEFS is more of what has occurred during the past decade. So which model has been more accurate w/ the MJO? I don't know. They have all been pretty bad. American modeling wants to take the warm tour Here are some MJO plots. In general, the plots where it stalls in 2/3 (or loops)...the better the pattern. The plots where it goes high amplitude into 4-6, the worse the pattern. I tend to gravitate to whichever pattern is worse... But that likely is just a hangover from Nina winters on my part. Truly, the MJO "should" move quickly through 4-6 or resist going there at all. There should be enough precip in the regions of 8-1-2 (dateline south Hawaii and off the eastern coast of Africa), that it should counter anything firing over Indonesia. That said, you can see a fairly good connection between the panels above and the ones posted just below. I have said it before and will say it again, we are going to need an NAO block to get through the second half of January. So far, it looks promising.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I still have my doubts today (different thought than yesterday I know) as to how cold it gets, but there is a chance the PV could get trapped w/ the NAO firing and a slightly displace Alaskan block - a double block. There is a slight SER showing up(when is there not?), so I am not sure that suppression will be an issue. Looks like a warm-up from say Jan 8-9, and then cold is replenished. The MJO is very interesting this morning. Some modeling has it looping back into 2......That said, there is potential for severe cold...but Nino patterns tend to find a way to moderate cold air, and that isn't always a bad thing if one likes snow.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful pattern now after Jan 10.........block city.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the surface, the CMC is weaker, but it its a clean pass. The GFS was almost a clean pass. The trend so far is to consolidate the slp as Miller A vs a hybrid. Models aren't there yet, but trended that way. Also, for TRI and the Plateau...looks icy.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Tagging onto @1234snow, I think we are going to see very cold air enter into the pattern. I would say 60/40 that it goes into the West....but I am not confident that it can't make it to Cuba as well. If that is what is about to occur(extreme cold into the Lower 48), it is going to be model havoc for some time with lots of swings.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Nico and our defensive ends did not disappoint. We turned some high latitude blocking loose on Iowa today. All hyperbole aside...I must add, their fans, players, and band are pretty much the classiest out there. I have heard great reports all around about Hawkeye nation.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is! I thought it was going to have an overrunning event in northern Florida....did for southern Georgia!
  20. Carvers Gap
    I would be watching it if I lived in north Georgia or SE TN or western NC.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Posted without comment...
  22. Carvers Gap
    Euro -> Dr No
  23. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I am gonna be watching the TN game...so my input is gonna be marginal in quality at best! LOL
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the UKMET probably takes about 98% of the forum out of the game. You all on the Plateau could do well. That said, it looks pretty similar to 0z if not maybe a hair northwest. ICON -> rain to snow GFS -> rain to snow CMC -> ice UKMET -> elevation only
  25. Carvers Gap
    Did it hold serve?
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