Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,656

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    So that there is no confusion, I am talking about the storm on the 16th and not this weekend.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The run goes out to 144, and at 500 it is further East. It would likely not let the following storm dig into the southwest. But just one run of many up to this point and going forward as well. Again, my main concern for the 16th energy is that it slides under us and misses.
  3. Carvers Gap
    This is gonna be a wild ride. The 18z EPS...not a bad trend. The MA has some discussion about it. Moves the trough around 150...further eastward. Hope that trend continues - I think I hope that it continues.
  4. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I used to like it. 58-59 had a cold December if I remember correctly, and ho-hum temps for the rest of winter. Not terrible, but very similar up to this point.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, gonna be wild. But at least we are tracking legit systems. Great points by all involved. Now, we just have 28 more runs to hammer out! LOL. I am not sleeping on next weekend though. Could be interesting for western areas. Get a couple of looks before this cold shot slides past, and then reload for Feb? The MJO is possibly going to pass into phase 4 around the 16th. That is a double edged sword. There should be a SER, but there could also be a big storm as the MJO rotates out of possible phases. Phase 3 has produced big storms before. Fun stuff for sure.....
  6. Carvers Gap
    With any of those looks (on the bright side), somebody in the forum is getting ice/snow.
  7. Carvers Gap
    But even ensemble to ensemble run changes are present as noted above....ensemble trends are good for now.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Good comparison. The good thing(or bad thing) is that likely will change at this range. Feedback over the Southwest in the operational and more blocking on the ensemble (slight orange above MI)???? The feedback in the operational pops the SER? The SER maybe(?) shouldn't be there w/ that NAO configuration? The ensemble is much colder and has a deeper air mass(cold).
  9. Carvers Gap
    I don't like the '59 analog, even though it fits nearly perfectly w/ this past anomalous dry Sept/Oc. During future winters, I may start looking at a correlation between precip during Sept/Oct and winter.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Here are 18z to 12z GEFS side-by-side comparison slides. I use that comparison a lot. The 18z is on the left of each slide. Notice the entry point into the region is much further south. Look at the rain/snow line in the second slide. First side-by-side comparison is 189 and the second is 207..... This storm is so far out there, I am bordering on posting a 240 operational map and discussing details about it. But here it is....
  11. Carvers Gap
    The system on the 16th is 198 hours from potential reaching E TN -> just 198 hours to go. That is a long, long way to reality. Ensembles are my choice at this range, and they look good for much of the state. Still, we are so far out from that storm....details will almost certainly change. The entire system could change at this range. The operational was just about a Miller A. My main concern is that operational modeling is not sensing the Atlantic block(result is spinning up into the block), and ensembles are trending south. It is a good, big-storm look. I wouldn't swing one way or the other at this range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensemble runs the risk of suppressing the system below the TN/KY line completely...and maybe south of I-40. It has snow and ice in Louisiana. MUCH different than the operational. Suppression is my concern. The eastern 2/3 of the US was roughly 3-5 degrees colder on that run during the timeframe of the 16th. The trend on the ensemble is suppression. We have seen the operational grow weaker and southeast during the past few weeks in regards to trends. The ensemble makes more sense at this range.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensembles is south of 12z which was suppressed to begin with for the 16th system. The ensemble does not agree with the operational for that timeframe. Could the operational be leading the way? Sure, but that is a long way out....almost 8 days. At this range, the operational is just a member of the ensemble. Now, this Friday's system is a different story....
  14. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the cutter or slider around the 16th. The 18z operational was more of a middle/west TN system. The ensemble for the same run is much further south and gets the entire state. This is the system which comes after the mid-state cutter on the 13th. The one on the 13th might end-up needing a thread tomorrow or Tuesday for west TN, western KY, eastern Arkansa, and southwest Mizzou. It starts Friday night. IF the trend continues. The GEFS supports the operational at 18z....
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is quite cold around the aforementioned time frame. Wind chills are well below zero, even during daylight hours. It reminds me quite a bit of the system from December '22. Portions of middle TN reach -15F on the thermometer. Real Feel is -20 to -30. We are seeing this across modeling to varying degrees. Does it happen? No idea.
  16. Carvers Gap
    That could be a very big storm.......
  17. Carvers Gap
    You can see the system just prior to 200 is now feeling the block, and is being forced on the low road.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Pretty big change to the 18z GFS w/ the second "cutter." W TN in the game....
  19. Carvers Gap
    I don't know if we have ever had a mountain wave thread. If there are, there are just a few. I will tag @Math/Met for this thread as he is pretty much an expert on mountain waves. Here is what MRX has: The main hazard will be a strong mountain wave event that is set to begin Monday night. The synoptic pattern favors a high-end mountain wave event with the core of the 850mb wind maximum (nearly 70-80+ knots) west of the Appalachians. Additionally, cross-mountain flow, a stable layer across the ridge tops, and a strong pressure gradient aligned across the mountains only add to the confidence of a strong mountain wave event likely to take place. Just as the previous discussion from this morning mentioned, gusts up to 100 mph wouldn`t be a surprise for the usual wind-prone areas such as Cove Mountain, and Camp Creek. Additionally, in the very strong cases, its not surprising to see the "waves" extend further into the foothills than what is typical, although the magnitude of winds isn`t as strong as those higher elevations. Downsloping from this event will lead to adiabatic warming across the foothills and the forecast will reflect some of this warmth Monday night and Tuesday. Winds will still be strong outside of the mountains, albeit weaker. There will be a delay between when the mountain wave winds start and the winds in the lower elevations. Lower elevations probably won`t see these winds pick up until daylight hours Tuesday. Gusty winds will continue into Tuesday night before decreasing as the jet core races off toward the northeast and the pressure gradient relaxes. As the rain moves out, much colder temperatures will advect eastward with 850mb temperatures falling to -6C to -8C leading a subsequent increase in lapse rates. Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning within the base of the trough. Moisture will be limited so not expecting any significant accumulations from this or the weak orographically induced snow across the Smokies. High pressure at the surface settles across the northern Gulf coast and Florida peninsula through Thursday bringing drier weather to the region.
  20. Carvers Gap
    From MRX and just adding to what @Math/Metmentioned: The main hazard will be a strong mountain wave event that is set to begin Monday night. The synoptic pattern favors a high-end mountain wave event with the core of the 850mb wind maximum (nearly 70-80+ knots) west of the Appalachians. Additionally, cross-mountain flow, a stable layer across the ridge tops, and a strong pressure gradient aligned across the mountains only add to the confidence of a strong mountain wave event likely to take place. Just as the previous discussion from this morning mentioned, gusts up to 100 mph wouldn`t be a surprise for the usual wind-prone areas such as Cove Mountain, and Camp Creek. Additionally, in the very strong cases, its not surprising to see the "waves" extend further into the foothills than what is typical, although the magnitude of winds isn`t as strong as those higher elevations. Downsloping from this event will lead to adiabatic warming across the foothills and the forecast will reflect some of this warmth Monday night and Tuesday. Winds will still be strong outside of the mountains, albeit weaker. There will be a delay between when the mountain wave winds start and the winds in the lower elevations. Lower elevations probably won`t see these winds pick up until daylight hours Tuesday. Gusty winds will continue into Tuesday night before decreasing as the jet core races off toward the northeast and the pressure gradient relaxes. As the rain moves out, much colder temperatures will advect eastward with 850mb temperatures falling to -6C to -8C leading a subsequent increase in lapse rates. Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning within the base of the trough. Moisture will be limited so not expecting any significant accumulations from this or the weak orographically induced snow across the Smokies. High pressure at the surface settles across the northern Gulf coast and Florida peninsula through Thursday bringing drier weather to the region.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Analogs d10-14 19800128 20040105 19680109 19630131 19610128 19590116 19780130 19580204 19700109 19690109 d6-10 19700103 19800126 19681229 19590102 19960130 19850131 19940106 19680107 19690110 19620118
  22. Carvers Gap
    On a non-winter wx note.... @Math/Met , is this a high end event? It looks like it may take a while to burn out....
  23. Carvers Gap
    Both the Euro and CMC oddly have followed the 18z GFS in producing extreme temperatures racing eastward. Both end as the cold air enters west TN. We will see what the Euro control has....
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS looks to warm in relation to it own ensemble and other modeling.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I think the GEPS ensemble has this - meaning it is correctly modeling the pattern.
×
×
  • Create New...