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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Trailing snow showers have been over performing in E TN w/ the last few systems. Nothing big, but decent. So, tough to know. Good little pattern that we are in for the next 7-10 days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    This reminds me of the Christmas storm from a few years ago(Jan 16h). If we can catch a wave (without a warm nose), we could be in business. We will see. Still in the game, so that is good.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I just don't see it with the Friday system. I could easily be wrong. OHX would be much more familiar with your area. Maybe the Plateau and higher elevations of E TN. Could be a dusting, but who knows. These systems are powerhouses.
  4. Carvers Gap
    No, the Jan 16 system.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yes, that will do.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We may be dealing with an anafront? Is that the right term?
  7. Carvers Gap
    Not a terrible run by the 12z GFS....
  8. Carvers Gap
    MRX is still banging the drum for a pretty significant wind event tonight and into tomorrow. Heads-up.
  9. Carvers Gap
    So that there is no confusion, I am talking about the storm on the 16th and not this weekend.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The run goes out to 144, and at 500 it is further East. It would likely not let the following storm dig into the southwest. But just one run of many up to this point and going forward as well. Again, my main concern for the 16th energy is that it slides under us and misses.
  11. Carvers Gap
    This is gonna be a wild ride. The 18z EPS...not a bad trend. The MA has some discussion about it. Moves the trough around 150...further eastward. Hope that trend continues - I think I hope that it continues.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I used to like it. 58-59 had a cold December if I remember correctly, and ho-hum temps for the rest of winter. Not terrible, but very similar up to this point.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, gonna be wild. But at least we are tracking legit systems. Great points by all involved. Now, we just have 28 more runs to hammer out! LOL. I am not sleeping on next weekend though. Could be interesting for western areas. Get a couple of looks before this cold shot slides past, and then reload for Feb? The MJO is possibly going to pass into phase 4 around the 16th. That is a double edged sword. There should be a SER, but there could also be a big storm as the MJO rotates out of possible phases. Phase 3 has produced big storms before. Fun stuff for sure.....
  14. Carvers Gap
    With any of those looks (on the bright side), somebody in the forum is getting ice/snow.
  15. Carvers Gap
    But even ensemble to ensemble run changes are present as noted above....ensemble trends are good for now.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Good comparison. The good thing(or bad thing) is that likely will change at this range. Feedback over the Southwest in the operational and more blocking on the ensemble (slight orange above MI)???? The feedback in the operational pops the SER? The SER maybe(?) shouldn't be there w/ that NAO configuration? The ensemble is much colder and has a deeper air mass(cold).
  17. Carvers Gap
    I don't like the '59 analog, even though it fits nearly perfectly w/ this past anomalous dry Sept/Oc. During future winters, I may start looking at a correlation between precip during Sept/Oct and winter.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Here are 18z to 12z GEFS side-by-side comparison slides. I use that comparison a lot. The 18z is on the left of each slide. Notice the entry point into the region is much further south. Look at the rain/snow line in the second slide. First side-by-side comparison is 189 and the second is 207..... This storm is so far out there, I am bordering on posting a 240 operational map and discussing details about it. But here it is....
  19. Carvers Gap
    The system on the 16th is 198 hours from potential reaching E TN -> just 198 hours to go. That is a long, long way to reality. Ensembles are my choice at this range, and they look good for much of the state. Still, we are so far out from that storm....details will almost certainly change. The entire system could change at this range. The operational was just about a Miller A. My main concern is that operational modeling is not sensing the Atlantic block(result is spinning up into the block), and ensembles are trending south. It is a good, big-storm look. I wouldn't swing one way or the other at this range.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensemble runs the risk of suppressing the system below the TN/KY line completely...and maybe south of I-40. It has snow and ice in Louisiana. MUCH different than the operational. Suppression is my concern. The eastern 2/3 of the US was roughly 3-5 degrees colder on that run during the timeframe of the 16th. The trend on the ensemble is suppression. We have seen the operational grow weaker and southeast during the past few weeks in regards to trends. The ensemble makes more sense at this range.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensembles is south of 12z which was suppressed to begin with for the 16th system. The ensemble does not agree with the operational for that timeframe. Could the operational be leading the way? Sure, but that is a long way out....almost 8 days. At this range, the operational is just a member of the ensemble. Now, this Friday's system is a different story....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the cutter or slider around the 16th. The 18z operational was more of a middle/west TN system. The ensemble for the same run is much further south and gets the entire state. This is the system which comes after the mid-state cutter on the 13th. The one on the 13th might end-up needing a thread tomorrow or Tuesday for west TN, western KY, eastern Arkansa, and southwest Mizzou. It starts Friday night. IF the trend continues. The GEFS supports the operational at 18z....
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is quite cold around the aforementioned time frame. Wind chills are well below zero, even during daylight hours. It reminds me quite a bit of the system from December '22. Portions of middle TN reach -15F on the thermometer. Real Feel is -20 to -30. We are seeing this across modeling to varying degrees. Does it happen? No idea.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That could be a very big storm.......
  25. Carvers Gap
    You can see the system just prior to 200 is now feeling the block, and is being forced on the low road.
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