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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I think that we are seeing some sort of energy transfer to the coast which is why the front is dying so early now. Not sure if that helps, but definitely can see it on the CMC.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And if the GFS or CMC trend about 150-200miles northwest (plenty of time for that trend), this is a different ballgame.
  3. Carvers Gap
    at 132, it is weak, but that is a Miller A.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The CMC probably won't get there this during this run, but it has a SLP in the Panhandle at 126. This is the trend for sure so far and a new twist.
  5. Carvers Gap
    So far...the trend is to flatten the system out a bit as it enters the forum area. I wasn't sure what JB meant by that but you can see it on the precip panels. That is allowing for a bit more confluence - I think.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS backed the flow by turning(ever so slightly) the system to the north after first flattening it out. If that lows trends closer to the coast, more interesting system ensues. Makes a huge difference for E TN.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I was reading JB this morning, and he thinks the storm will be flatter. I have no idea what that means in regards to the outcome of this storm, but there seems to be a school of thought that modeling is adjusting quickly to the block, and this is not dialed-in. I was looking at Holston's 1988 post in banter, and maybe this is a 1988(light) set-up. The 6z Euro control pretty much completely lost the entire storm once it left west TN. LOL. The 6z mean looks like 0z. The Euro seems to be transitioning to more of a dying cold front over this forum area, and a developing low from the Panhandle to off the EC. Not sure if it helps us, but it could bring some semblance of a slug of moisture up the eastern valley if that developed. Some super sketchy solutions out there right now. I don't know which to trust.
  8. Carvers Gap
    From MRX this morning: Early next week VERY cold temperatures will dive out of Canada towards the southeast US. This will definitely bring with it bitterly cold temperatures dropping into the teens an single digits on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. And in addition accumulating snowfall in the valley cannot be ruled out. This snowfall possibility is still 5+ days out so the models/forecast can AND WILL change over the next few days, and focusing in on a single deterministic model run this far out is unwise. Probabilistic guidance continues to show the possibility of seeing an inch of snow Monday/Tuesday at around 50% along and north of Interstate 40, dropping down to around 25% chance near the TN/GA border. The probability to see 3 inches of snow drops down to around 20% along Interstate 40. Many people will focus on the snow potential early next week, but there is MUCH higher confidence on the bitterly cold temperatures the first half of the week. With winds expected to see an uptick at times we could see single digit wind chill values at Chattanooga Tuesday morning, and even sub zero wind chill values on the plateau at this time.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Models still bouncing around all over the place. I swore years ago never to track a storm from seven+ days out. Now, I remember why. Not again after this one. LOL. Yeah, east -> west trajectories are not how we score in most of the eastern valley. There has to be a component where the system backs(slp forms to our east) and preferably a component where moisture comes from the southeast or even southwest(even w/ the risk of a warm nose). Really, I don't think clown maps are going to matter with this one. What is going to matter is how much moisture is on the qpf map for each area. What I will be watching is how much moisture is going to be available. If areas get 0.2 - 0.3 (water equivalent), that "could" be really good if the precip line is far enough behind the front. If the precip arrives with the front, totals will be much lower. So things to watch for me are where the precip is in relation to the front and overall precip amounts for the event. Even at TRI where this has been a strong "no go" for days, if we get 0.1" of water...that could be a couple of inches of snow. For now, I still think the eastern valley is going to need a lot of help as you note. I think a general 1-2" of snow is in play for most eastern areas. To get above that, we are going to need something similar to what you have shown. FWIW, the 6z GEFS trended way down on storm totals, but it is still bouncing around.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Winter Wx Advisory has been posted for the TN side of the Apps(higher elevations only).
  11. Carvers Gap
    Evening disco from MRX and pretty decent discussion for a system still 5-6 days out. Sunday is dry but then all eyes turn toward our system for next week. It`s still too early to go into much detail in regards to snowfall amounts as timing and QPF amounts will play a large role in accumulations. With that said, NBM probabilistic guidance is showing roughly a 40 to 50% chance of seeing 1" of snowfall along and north of I-40 with a 50 to 60% across southwest VA. Probabilities are lower across the southern TN Valley at 20 to 30%. The probability for 2" of snowfall or greater along I-40 and north drops down to a 30 to a 30 to 40% chance. While snowfall amounts are TBD there is high confidence in much colder temperatures in place Monday into Tuesday. The new day 7, which is Tuesday, currently has high temps in the mid to upper 20s with overnight lows in the single digits across the forecast area. These values are around 20 degrees below normal.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The Euro (ext) basically has a decent window from Jan 28 through all of February. A quick ridge rolls through from the 23rd to the 27th, and then a trough sets up over the SE very abruptly around the 28th. Great look. Nice PNA ridge forms out West w/ undercutting, and trough centered just to the southwest of the Aleutians. The 28th fits the MJO rotation almost perfectly as it should reach phase 7 by late month or early Jan. Then I agree w/ Cosgrove, March goes warm...but I could see it start cold. The SSW is maybe decent today? That would bring cold 2-3 weeks from today.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I would say if this is there at 0z, start a thread. I would be super surprised if some in the forum don't see some decent snow from this. I have been holding off on hitting any LR stuff today so as not to slow the roll of this great storm discussion. The Euro ext tonight looked exceptional.
  14. Carvers Gap
    That fits what I am seeing(for this run).
  15. Carvers Gap
    Generally, east -> west storms moving quickly will blank TRI from I-81 westward if they are just light snow events. Knoxville sometimes works around the rain shadow there(see the graphs Stove just posted). I have noticed west and north Knoxville will often get more than MBY if precip amounts are equal and the trajectory is east -> west (temps about the same comparatively). December 20' is what we need to work towards if this is going to be an anafront. Just need the front to come roaring across the state, and roll the dice. For now, it very much looks like this loses steam as hit crosses the Plateau with the exception of the lollipop over TYS which may or may not be legit. But again, we are in this window where modeling just struggles. I don't know if we lose data on the vortex over the Pacific or if it just gets sampled better as it approaches the US coast.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I have found WxBell algorithms to be decent. Pivotal is almost always overdone for MBY.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I can say this, the amount of 24 hour precip has dropped since yesterday. If we can get 0.35"(18z GFS) of water to fall into very cold air, we could reach Pivotal's algorithm fairly easily and surpass it. But the main message on modeling since 12z is that the front dies as is comes of the Plateau. That said. It is just Tuesday, and the details are 100% going to change over the next 5-6 days. And also, we are in the 5-7 day window where models are notorious for losing storms. Let's see where this is by say Thursday. Since the maps are posted here, we can see if modeling ups totals.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Here are the Kuchera and 10:1 maps:
  19. Carvers Gap
    Is that for the storm only? The problem I am seeing w/ some of the maps is they include 1-2" of total snow from tonight and Friday. I have the map for the storm, and it isn't close to that.
  20. Carvers Gap
    For western and middle forum areas it is 4-5 inches of snow near the MS River and 2-3" of snow to the Plateau w/ diminishing amounts as one goes eastward. There is a lollipop over TYS, but the rest of the eastern Valley gets 0.5-2". Kuchera is probably a bit more. But that run was rough compared to where it was a couple of days ago. Very close to tracking just a brief, intense snow band for the eastern 1/3. Hopefully we see it look a bit better during the next couple of days....but the system is trending w/ less precip w/ each passing run.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It is important to take the snow off the ground from the two systems this week(tonight and Friday). Once one does that, most of the eastern valley is blanked by the 18z GFS. TRI has been blanked for the past two runs. The previous snow on the ground makes those runs look better than they actually are. The anafront dies after it comes across the Plateau. For TRI, right now we are chasing a cold front and not snow.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We really just want a powerhouse cold front it that is the case. Off the top of my head.... Tap the GOM....any kind of lift...intensity of the cold behind the front...speed of the front....and then have it slow down as it goes over your area...
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is an anafront. That is a 2020 redux. Hopefully, we see it strengthen as we get closer. Nino systems are often over performers
  24. Carvers Gap
    I was about to ask. TYS has recorded a gust to 55mph. I know that is on the exact opposite side of town, but that is howling!!!
  25. Carvers Gap
    I was looking for convection along the GOM...
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