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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    My concern is and will continue to be suppression. Anafronts are fun, because almost everyone gets involved. And the cold keeps it on the ground for several days to boot. Wild ride!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Good find. I hesitate to use this phrase...but the pattern is pretty loaded as both the Euro and GFS lock that trough in. This morning, the trough lifted out as opposed to 12z where it left it in tact.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS mean is an anafront in conjunction w/ a final wave riding into E TN. But with those cold temps, a few tenths of precip could equal 4-5" of snow for most locals. That is where my money is right now.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The actual ensemble (and it would wash-out an extreme storm) has high pressure limiting the advance northward of the storm. As a matter of fact, the mean goes out to sea just like the CMC.
  5. Carvers Gap
    We are gonna need to get some support from the EPS. It has some ana front stuff, but not a single member supports the deterministic. Now, it easily could be the deterministic is leading the ensemble. I wouldn't be surprised at all. edit: regarding snow totals, I didn't see the track.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And very much like the 12z GFS, the pattern after the storm brings western ridging and slows the decay of the block. I would almost bet there will be another, northern stream system which follows.
  7. Carvers Gap
    So right now we have GFS: ana front CMC: nada front Euro: Appa front
  8. Carvers Gap
    Wind chills and temperatures are well below zero. And that isn't the GFS running those numbers. The wind chills for the Euro are 20-30 below zero. Highs are in 0-5 above zero. Wow.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Kuchera maps are crazy big.
  10. Carvers Gap
    My money is on a. slider w/ a wave on it through the Piedmont, but I play with fake money.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The good thing for those in eastern areas....that look is very likely to change some. Modeling has shifted drastically eastward during the past 4-5 runs. On the positive note, models often lock-in big storms from long distances. Right now the cone is the MS River to the Apps. At 174 hours though, that is a LONG way to go....still seven days out.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That one is is a middle TN and west TN crusher....eastern Cumberland Plateau and eastern valley get goosed! LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    If posting the full, 8-day ensemble, it is important to remember that some snow falls this weekend, and there is a little system in between this weekend and Tuesday that modeling is finding. The ICON has it. The 96 hour GEFS map is a BIG uptick from the previous five runs for just that Tuesday storm. Probably as 2.5-4" for most of the forum. Not bad at this range, and lots of big hitters on the individual maps.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Looks like maybe a wave rotation around the base of the trough as the cold rolls in re: GEFS. The GEPS has zip.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Ensemble members look like a slider/wave.
  16. Carvers Gap
    For some locals, the 12z GEFS has temps twenty-five degrees BN at 7 days out. Pretty rare to see that.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS ensembles look like 0z - not 6z. Looks like a massive cold front just pukes snow.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I don't remember cold fronts being this strong during El Nino winters...maybe 09-10? That is almost a La Nina set-up. How close is the GFS to a '96 look? Does it need to be flatter further east or just a bigger wave on the front and slower?
  19. Carvers Gap
    Both operationals match their ensembles in terms of temp profiles on the macro.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Again, a long way to go, but that run will work for most of the forum area. What comes behind it is potentially even better. The GFS broke the pattern down quickly at 6z, so this is a nice bonus if real. That nice, bowl shaped trough that follows is generally money.
  21. Carvers Gap
    No idea if correct, but that is a beautiful pattern after the Tuesday system next week on both the CMC and GFS.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The great thing about the GFS on this run is that it doesn't break down the block too quickly and inexplicably. Slider inbound after the 16th.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yes, especially with these setups where it is cold. I don't think its physics are quite as good for storm details. Now, its short range model (RGEM) is money. It is better for getting long wave patterns correct IMHO. We used to call it the Crazy Uncle. It is the only model which correctly caught the cold - but it is always cold, so it maybe it is a blind chicken.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is awfully close to a '96 redux if I have the storm correct. Take a minute and look in the Lakes...there is the problem.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Tough to tell. The 12z cmc is a big nada. The 12z GFS is basically one big cold front crashing eastward. Really the only difference between the two is the GFS has what is called an anafront - and I am still not sure that I am using the right term there. Basically the cold air just plows under the warm air and forces the warm/moist air to rise. Rising air produces precip. The big thing is the precip is behind the from on the GFS and in front of it on the CMC. The GFS solution makes good sense since the air behind it is so cold. And....the cold will be coming across new snow in the MidWest.
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