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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Tracking is literally why this forum was created. I hope folks have a blast tracking. That is why many of us worked to form this forum many years ago. We split-off from the southeast forum. I do know that in the past, many have gotten burned tracking at 7+ days. I know I have. We have tracked storms for 5 days only to have it vanish with a couple of days to go. It is worth restating from time to time that things are going to change between now and next Tuesday. One thing this forum has always been known for is keeping a level head.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That is crazy, man!
  3. Carvers Gap
    I remember watching Ahmad Rashad's miracle catch live on TV. Minnesota needs to go back to playing games outside, and get a little home field advantage like the Packers....and frost bite.
  4. Carvers Gap
    For the record, I called for a warm-up from Jan 12-25th. How's that working out? LOL
  5. Carvers Gap
    Here are the afternoon CPC goodies. If it doesn't get cold, we will blame them for putting us inside the bubble.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I grew up a Boston Red Sox fan and a TN fan(mid-late 1970s)......getting hosed is just part of life's right of passage for me. That is probably why I like the weather, it is just some kind of sick hobby that reminds me of my sports hobby. I also like to fish. Maybe I just like randomly being disappointed on a regular basis.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I just kind of roll with it. At 7 days, hopefully everyone knows the drill............. Another big shift is when NA wx station pick up the energy. Generally, tracking this far out doesn't work out just due to being sad far out in time. If the cold front stays north/south and taps the GOM, that is what we want and makes for easier tracking.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Day 6-10 analogs: 19700105 19681230 19800125 19590116 19770128 19960201 19780127 19690110 19940106 19800130 Day 8-14 19800128 19580205 19780129 19610128 19700106 19590114 20030113 19700111 19690111 19630131
  9. Carvers Gap
    @Math/Met, are we gonna have power tomorrow in E TN? I see where school systems are wisely on delays or closed due to wind potential. Any update on the mountain wave event?
  10. Carvers Gap
    I have battered Nina winter syndrome. I am going to apply all caveats in order to CYA.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Models "seem" to be getting a bit closer to a solution, and many of us are still in the game. We are also in the window where storms go "poof" - day 5-7. Sometimes they reappear and sometimes not. Still a long way to go. What I like is the extreme cold is still in play. I would think a strong front like that would carry precip with it. Middle and west TN are currently the favorites. E TN is the wildcard. As long as the cold front stays relatively north/south in orientation, we have a good shot. If it goes to more east/west....we have less of a chance. Most good storms are often spotted at a distance. All usual caveats apply.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Rule is in play!!!!
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS maps are crazy cold and snowy. Take some time and give them a look. You all won't see those types of maps very often.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I am somewhat concerned of power outages tonight w/ cold looming on Tuesday, especially for the mountains.
  15. Carvers Gap
    One thing that looks quite similar among modeling is the cold for next Tuesday into Wednesday. That could still easily change at this range. Again, I have tracked cold shots like this that end in a whimper. I have also tracked cold shots like this which have verified (Dec '22). Anafronts are a little less painless to track - I hope that is what it is. Everyone has chips in that game. February looks like it will be a phase 8 MJO rotation with blocking, with an active MJO, and with Atlantic blocking. Does it happen? No idea. What is on modeling is probably in the +95th percentile of good weather patterns....which means it has nowhere to go but down!!!! LOL
  16. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies have a brutal winter pattern - good if you like winter, but man. The Pacific looks like it kicks into gear later this month ( @John1122 , I know you like that!). But what a pattern on the Weeklies. Better enjoy that warmup later this month....is the message from that model.
  17. Carvers Gap
    BTW, I agree w/ the clipper deal, BNA....
  18. Carvers Gap
    My concern is and will continue to be suppression. Anafronts are fun, because almost everyone gets involved. And the cold keeps it on the ground for several days to boot. Wild ride!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Good find. I hesitate to use this phrase...but the pattern is pretty loaded as both the Euro and GFS lock that trough in. This morning, the trough lifted out as opposed to 12z where it left it in tact.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS mean is an anafront in conjunction w/ a final wave riding into E TN. But with those cold temps, a few tenths of precip could equal 4-5" of snow for most locals. That is where my money is right now.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The actual ensemble (and it would wash-out an extreme storm) has high pressure limiting the advance northward of the storm. As a matter of fact, the mean goes out to sea just like the CMC.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We are gonna need to get some support from the EPS. It has some ana front stuff, but not a single member supports the deterministic. Now, it easily could be the deterministic is leading the ensemble. I wouldn't be surprised at all. edit: regarding snow totals, I didn't see the track.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And very much like the 12z GFS, the pattern after the storm brings western ridging and slows the decay of the block. I would almost bet there will be another, northern stream system which follows.
  24. Carvers Gap
    So right now we have GFS: ana front CMC: nada front Euro: Appa front
  25. Carvers Gap
    Wind chills and temperatures are well below zero. And that isn't the GFS running those numbers. The wind chills for the Euro are 20-30 below zero. Highs are in 0-5 above zero. Wow.
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