Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,656

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. It is such an odd trend as the GFS used to be too suppressed. I noticed last evening a big trend south. Then, everything moved northwest. I think interaction w/ the GOM, interaction w/ HL blocking, and the strength of the vort is still being worked out. Nice to see the CMC on board today. I am guessing the 12z GFS was way underdone.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yep. That is gonna leave a mark.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, and we have posted about this before, modeling will "see" the block a bit better than it does further out. I reminds me several years ago when modeling would try to cut a storm into a block....that can happened, but often it doesn't. This is kind of a weaker version of that. However, with as strong as this cold front is, I expect some fireworks in reality.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles have been a weak anafront for days. But just a few tenths of moisture can work out to decent amounts. The 12z GEFS is in an anafront w/ no wave. It is almost "the rotate the energy under the base of the trough, OTS" solution. That said, from an E TN perspective, I want solutions a bit weaker right now. My guess is that this over performs compared to what 12z just showed. I also think the GFS is under-doing what will occur in actuality....for now.
  5. Carvers Gap
    As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero. Just a brutal air mass next week. I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling. The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover. If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with....
  6. Carvers Gap
    The overnight trend is losing high pressure over the top. The 6z EPS control was an extreme example of this. Likely would have gone to Columbus, Ohio.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 6z EPS ends at 144 for the control. The thermal lines were much further to the north.....almost would have been a true cutter.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is also very important to look at ensembles. The means for the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS actually suppress the system like the CMC does, rotate the energy below the forum, and bring it up the coast. Maybe that is where we want it? Maybe not. But I will say, I do think the operationals are driving the bus and catching trends that the ensembles are likely washing out. Operational trends matter at this point.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Not only that, but the 6z GEFS has the worst solution which rotates the energy through the base of the trough, off the NC coast, and misses the eastern half of TN altogether. I don't think that is likely BTW, but that is in play. I noticed it yesterday on some individual members. The big problem is that modeling is losing high pressure above the storm. If we lose hp, it may well cut through middle TN. This is also the timeframe when modeling tends to lose storms or lose original solutions - day 5-7.
  10. Carvers Gap
    A slp in central Georgia (tracking to Hatteras) is not what we want in E TN.....What we want is a slp tracking from the Panhandle to Hatteras. Anything more northwest creates downslope in E TN and wrecks thermal profiles. At this very minute, it isn't terrible...but if it takes a likely NW jog, adios for many. An anafront is a much easier solution, and more predictable. That said, having a blizzard on a big cold front is very realistic.
  11. Carvers Gap
    If the Euro is right, that is not good for E TN. Miller As will almost always jog NW. Downslope and proximity to what would likely be an Apps runner in reality would be no dice. The GFS is likely too suppressed w/ the Miller A. GREAT trends for portions of middle TN and west TN. Not great trends for E TN once we take into account slp placement bias. Plus, there are many more moving parts w/ a Miller A than an Apps runner. And there is also now in play the opposite of what I said which is...the energy rotates under our forum area, climbs the SE Coast, and misses the region entirely. Again, way more moving parts this morning, unless we area talking the Canadian which is still zip.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Good find, Holston. And Fed-Ex(same day...worth the cost) that snowman to the the Mid Atlantic forum this morning. That is some sort of winter voodoo.
  13. Carvers Gap
    All right, that is it for me tonight. Ya'll, reel the Euro in!
  14. Carvers Gap
    The Canadian may key on the second piece of energy...let's see. Edit: yep, it has another storm on the 19th.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah it is, which leaves open the window for another system after it.
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is how suppressed this is getting. The original axis started over the Ohio Valley. Now, I am barely on the northern edge of precip. One more jog south, and I am out. FWIW, the Canadian is still pretty much a nada at lower elevations. Need to see it trend on board.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Mainly because Chattanooga is often left out...this one is for you all.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Knox Co is the big winner on this run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The GFS sticks w/ the anafront idea. No idea if it is right. The run gets more interesting as the front stalls over E TN at 165 w/ snow well into Mississippi and Alabama.
  20. Carvers Gap
    At 153, the storm is still potent but weaker and much further south w/ stronger hp over the top.
  21. Carvers Gap
    At 144, snow is breaking out over western portions of the area....hp is a bit stronger over the top. Should be good.
  22. Carvers Gap
    At 138, it looks a hair quicker than 18z and maybe the 540 line is 30 miles further south.
  23. Carvers Gap
    At 126, there is slightly more surface cold and hp over the eastern valley. That could easily be scoured, but worth noting as the run progress.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I once saw a winter storm warning(model feedback big time) for South Carolina and North Carolina which called for 2-4 feet. One of my college roommates (hosts a show for ESPN now) lives there. I told him about it. He was fired up. I think they got 2-3" of snow at best. Man, he was HOT!!! I am pretty sure that he is still mad about it. I am always afraid that is he is going to remind me of that on live TV while he does one of his game days. LOL. So now, I generally refrain from winter wx talk with most of my friends. Though, I do have some folks who I talk w/ via text (as in 3 people total). Most of us can speak a language that many don't know(basically wx acronyms). This is pretty much the only place I talk about extended wx forecasts. And it is also why I add multiple caveats at this range.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS is rolling.....
×
×
  • Create New...