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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The MJO appears to be "potentially" getting ready to take the tour of the cold phases. If it does, this is a monumental bust of the CPC MJO plots which were trying to go back into the warm phases without going into cold phases. This has occurred all winter - CPC plots trying to skip either the cold or warm phases. I am not sure if the CPC plots are just representative of modeling bias...IDK. I think that is why we are seeing operational modeling find cold fronts that were not present 3-4 days ago.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, the 6z GFS has light snow over TRI Saturday morning (less than an inch of snow). My guess is higher elevations such as the Plateau and Apps see some light accumulations, and MRX has a short discussion about that this morning in their disco.
  3. Carvers Gap
    This morning, the 6z GFS and 0z CMC are picking up a fairly strong cold front around the 24-25th. Looks like a ridge rolls through just prior to that. Let's see if that holds. Decent look.
  4. Carvers Gap
    LOL. You know it! You know, that does look like that could be the Bays reservoir. I drove over that section of I-26 about 3:45. I don't remember anything unusual. On the other hand, I was trying not to hit the potholes on the bridge or get hit. For those of you who don't know, I-26 from Kingsport to Johnson City is like the autobahn in German. Better be on your toes...rubbin is racing on that section.
  5. Carvers Gap
    For the KY/VA/ TN border....Saturday can't be ruled out if a last minute SE trend takes place.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I am liking the 25th as a window to watch.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if there was some low level moisture hitting the mountain at a right angle. Seems odd to see it on the upwind side of the river. I was off the forum this afternoon, and hate I missed it....literally was right over the house. Does that feature count as an elk?
  8. Carvers Gap
    You always find interesting stuff. I think I can see that view out my back window every day.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We definitely make our own weather. But there are a lot of micro climates as well. Holston's Sullivan abode is probably about 100 yards from my parents. (We have never met that I know of...small world though) I am a bit up the hill. On Friday's they test their stuff. Things shake. LOL. That looks like an industrial release. My original thought was aircraft chaff, but we really don't have a lot of that activity here. Plus, that looks like it is coming from a singular, stationary point. Make me think waste treatment which is about where that plume is. Ya'll, if I am missing for a few days, you know the black helicopters have shown up. @1234 probably lives about 6-7 miles as a crow flies. Honestly, there are several Kingsport posters - I won't name all of them. I met @kvskelton(by chance)once when he was surveying in my neighborhood!
  10. Carvers Gap
    I updated that post...you can read the rest of it. LOL. It may just be confluence. It does tend to happen there, but normally it is on the other side of the mountain. Options would be open pit, new gas furnace, hydro demotion, or their waste water treatment plant. But it is right on top of it if I am reading that map correctly. Again, they make stuff that keeps us all safe and gets dropped from planes during shock and awe.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Under that spot is one of our nation's national defense plants. We make a lot of "stuff" here in KPT - chemicals, paper, and things which cannot be named or people show up at your house. Sometimes it can get a little sideways. LOL
  12. Carvers Gap
    That is where that weird little confluence sets up though.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Bravo Alpha Epsilon? Was the hydro demolition going or maybe it was some sort of release? Were they burning in the pit?
  14. Carvers Gap
    It rarely fails us....thunder in the mountains. Just a wild rule that is probably more accurate than most weather models. Congratulations to everyone seeing snow. Pics or it didn't happen! LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Somebody is gonna have to post some snow photos so those of us getting the liquid variety can live vicariously.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control weeklies lower the boom for the first week of March - SSW special right there.
  17. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone The ensemble looks to me like week 3 is warm. Week 4 is quite cold(maybe colder). Honestly, week 3 for middle and E TN look pretty similar. The Plains during week 3 are warm...just a quick glance on my part.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And this current SSW should show up around early March. We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now, but maybe went to Asia. It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event. Tough to know. I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though. Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is also picking up on 1-2 pretty severe cold shots in March. Let's see where this goes tomorrow. For now, we have winter wx advisories posted. If we end up getting snow, someone needs to open up a thread for the winter wx advisory.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Almost every system on the GFS has some frozen precip over portions of the forum area.
  21. Carvers Gap
    So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so. It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians. That is a cold, stormy signal. Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this. I don't know if this is a trend. For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18). It could end up flipping right back. But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS looks actually colder than 12z. It looks like winter. I feel like I have lived this sequence once already this winter? There is also another potential winter system around the 23rd.....
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in the mountains!
  24. Carvers Gap
    We got a wooly worm substitute and an elk substitute(very cool BTW). We have winter wx advisories up for norther middle and west TN , and are tracking a slider on the 17th on the Euro. And the GFS is cold.... Honestly, this is what the Weeklies were advertising for weeks before losing them. This is probably a "light" version, but interesting to see it work out.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The cold front is right on time. What is crazy is that this was a cold/snow time frame for weeks, and frozen precip was lost about ten days ago(roughly IDK). Now, it is back. Feb 13-14 has been the pattern switch for a while. Hopefully, some folks will get a quick thump. The 12z GFS on cue has now three fairly strong cold fronts throughout its run. It is anything but wall-to-wall warm. I'll have to look but 10+ days of that might be BN.
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