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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Panels from ensembles....they have it.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS and GEFS ensembles (especially the GEPS) have beefier snow means. Good sign.
  3. Carvers Gap
    We've run the gauntlet in my house since fall....paraflu, croup, rona, standard cold, and rebound rona. I think we have managed to dodge RSV. Feel better! If it snows next week, you should be good by then!!!!
  4. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles have it now as a strong anafront. The GEFS has several SLPs which run the coast, but the idea is not consolidated. The GEPS has multiple SLPs(all over the place) ranging from cutters through mid-state to coastals, to inland runners, to Apps runners. Just looking at that, I think we are going to quite possibly see some version of a mid-state cutter to a coastal SLP - the window is that big. For now, it is just an anafront w/ something trying to form along the front.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I haven't even looked at ground temps. Probably a flash freeze as the front is inbound. Christmas '20 was pretty meh, and it roared through. This reminds me a lot of that anafront. That said, I don't think the Euro is out of the question either. Let's see how that trends. If it is 17" of snow...ground temps won't likely matter. And for that matter if anyone gets that much, things are going to be shut down for days in those areas.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Maybe more like the front slows, and an slp forms along it. '93 would be an extreme example. '96 maybe also. As John noted, modeling has sped up some. We can also catch a lee side low which helps E TN sometimes. That isn't the gospel on my part, but that is how I would envision it.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the CMC/GFS combo...both are popping slp near Hatteras. I am not sure that will help us or not. However, if modeling begins to consolidate (think Euro), then we could be looking at a major event. As of now, I lean suppression. If the Euro goes big again....I may rethink. The elements are there for a big storm so far at 12z - cold air roaring in, slp trying to form on the front, blocking. Generally, a blend of the GFS and Euro would be my recommendation right now...but let's see what ensembles show. If we are trending towards a larger storm, some big dogs will show up on individuals members.
  8. Carvers Gap
    At this point, I would be very surprised if the entire forum area gets blanked - not shocked, but very surprised. The ICON has a different iteration, but still hits some areas. The GFS is weaker. I would suspect the Euro comes in torqued.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. It is such an odd trend as the GFS used to be too suppressed. I noticed last evening a big trend south. Then, everything moved northwest. I think interaction w/ the GOM, interaction w/ HL blocking, and the strength of the vort is still being worked out. Nice to see the CMC on board today. I am guessing the 12z GFS was way underdone.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yep. That is gonna leave a mark.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, and we have posted about this before, modeling will "see" the block a bit better than it does further out. I reminds me several years ago when modeling would try to cut a storm into a block....that can happened, but often it doesn't. This is kind of a weaker version of that. However, with as strong as this cold front is, I expect some fireworks in reality.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles have been a weak anafront for days. But just a few tenths of moisture can work out to decent amounts. The 12z GEFS is in an anafront w/ no wave. It is almost "the rotate the energy under the base of the trough, OTS" solution. That said, from an E TN perspective, I want solutions a bit weaker right now. My guess is that this over performs compared to what 12z just showed. I also think the GFS is under-doing what will occur in actuality....for now.
  13. Carvers Gap
    As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero. Just a brutal air mass next week. I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling. The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover. If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with....
  14. Carvers Gap
    The overnight trend is losing high pressure over the top. The 6z EPS control was an extreme example of this. Likely would have gone to Columbus, Ohio.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 6z EPS ends at 144 for the control. The thermal lines were much further to the north.....almost would have been a true cutter.
  16. Carvers Gap
    It is also very important to look at ensembles. The means for the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS actually suppress the system like the CMC does, rotate the energy below the forum, and bring it up the coast. Maybe that is where we want it? Maybe not. But I will say, I do think the operationals are driving the bus and catching trends that the ensembles are likely washing out. Operational trends matter at this point.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Not only that, but the 6z GEFS has the worst solution which rotates the energy through the base of the trough, off the NC coast, and misses the eastern half of TN altogether. I don't think that is likely BTW, but that is in play. I noticed it yesterday on some individual members. The big problem is that modeling is losing high pressure above the storm. If we lose hp, it may well cut through middle TN. This is also the timeframe when modeling tends to lose storms or lose original solutions - day 5-7.
  18. Carvers Gap
    A slp in central Georgia (tracking to Hatteras) is not what we want in E TN.....What we want is a slp tracking from the Panhandle to Hatteras. Anything more northwest creates downslope in E TN and wrecks thermal profiles. At this very minute, it isn't terrible...but if it takes a likely NW jog, adios for many. An anafront is a much easier solution, and more predictable. That said, having a blizzard on a big cold front is very realistic.
  19. Carvers Gap
    If the Euro is right, that is not good for E TN. Miller As will almost always jog NW. Downslope and proximity to what would likely be an Apps runner in reality would be no dice. The GFS is likely too suppressed w/ the Miller A. GREAT trends for portions of middle TN and west TN. Not great trends for E TN once we take into account slp placement bias. Plus, there are many more moving parts w/ a Miller A than an Apps runner. And there is also now in play the opposite of what I said which is...the energy rotates under our forum area, climbs the SE Coast, and misses the region entirely. Again, way more moving parts this morning, unless we area talking the Canadian which is still zip.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Good find, Holston. And Fed-Ex(same day...worth the cost) that snowman to the the Mid Atlantic forum this morning. That is some sort of winter voodoo.
  21. Carvers Gap
    All right, that is it for me tonight. Ya'll, reel the Euro in!
  22. Carvers Gap
    The Canadian may key on the second piece of energy...let's see. Edit: yep, it has another storm on the 19th.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah it is, which leaves open the window for another system after it.
  24. Carvers Gap
    This is how suppressed this is getting. The original axis started over the Ohio Valley. Now, I am barely on the northern edge of precip. One more jog south, and I am out. FWIW, the Canadian is still pretty much a nada at lower elevations. Need to see it trend on board.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Mainly because Chattanooga is often left out...this one is for you all.
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