Carvers Gap

I triple checked. The heaviest returns are to the west of us. It hadn't reached us yet. If forms a wave on the backside like the GFS - basically a deformation band.

I just checked on Pivotal. It had just reached this area. Most precip was still west of us.

And it is still going in eastern areas, correct?

RGEM forms a low in the western GOM as well.

The Friday storm is plausible. One thing DT always warns about is a second system which is a shadow of the first feature. It is a weird feedback issue in modeling that allows modeling to repeat the preceding system IF the first system was very strong. However, given the amount of cold in place along with an active STJ/northern stream combo....another system sliding across is very plausible. And honestly, another after that with warm air advection wouldn't surprise me. This pattern is a good one. It will relax from Jan 24-28, and then possibly reload with as potent a pattern or even more so. And I might add, the trailing system has been off-and-on modeling for several days.

Actually, it isn't downslope. Only the mountain counties catch that second slug of moisture.

Downsloping most likely off the Apps. I think those lower totals have probably been there all along, but that lollipop near Knoxville was hiding it. Ask @tnweathernuthow much he likes downsloping.....LOL. .It is probably the one set-up where I can out score him in JC.

Almost prime SLP location. As you noted, it looks to me like the Gfs almost formed the main low in the GOM. If that happens...good things.

In E TN, waiting on that second pulse is sketchy, sketch. Need it to back west about 100miles

That is a monster.

That is a Miller A.

That’ll do.

Well, this could be fun. Second low is in the GOM

This run has a chance to be good.

18z GFS should hold serve with at least the first wave.

HP is stronger this run over the top by just a hair...slight trend to Euro but it has room to turn NE.

SLP in Canada is in a more true blocking position at 60. This should not be suppressed.

If the Euro is gonna get the dub, we will probably know on this run.

The problem with the far northwest envelope models moving this way is they may be trending(passing) right on through. Those are big moves SE. I doubt they are done. We will know more by tomorrow AM.

I noticed on the Euro that the blocking low in eastern Canada was maybe a bit more south and west. That interaction drove the boundary further south which in turn squashed the potential winter storm. That trend was noticeable early in the run. That was a big difference from 0z.

That is a good point. The UKMET went to St Louis. The Euro went to Savannah.

The 12z EPS ensembles are split between the more NW path, the path directly across the state, and the more southerly path shown at 12z. If the Euro is right, northern MS, northern AL, and Chattanooga are in the ballgame. Good trends for them. Chattanooga has certainly waited a long time for some snow. If they get it, I will be super happy for them! The 12z EPS does lend some support to the operational.

The reason I said “oddly,” is that this system has trended southward from northern KY to the mid-South in terms of snow axis. Ensembles have had solutions exactly where the Euro just went. It would not shock me to see this suppressed - that has been my main concern.

I honestly don’t know. I think you all have as good a chance as any.

I was hoping for the TRI snow hole to fill in during this run....looks we still have some work to do.