Carvers Gap

Yeah, man, you all are under that storm prediction center disco from 3:00-5:00 for 1" rates. Have fun.

Humongous slug of moisture about to head through the eastern valley.

Running about 3"+ here as well. Beware, the rain snow line is at John B Dennis. It moved north along I-26 from Eastern Start to John B in about two hours. We still have snow here, but hoping maybe we can hold on until temps start going down as the sun drops lower in the sky.

The wooly warm was right, Holston...and the elk. Go feed that elk, man. Keep it around and keep it happy.

It is right on the line. I just drove KPT to Gray. I-26 is awful from John B to Eastern Star and then it flipped to heavy mix and then rain by Gray. Main snow axis appear to be just to the left of I-81. Colonial Heights should be getting blitzed. Has changed back to moderate to heavy snow now at Gray.

Haha. Yeah, go for it. I think my spell check and lack of proofing got me there...but it isn't all wrong! LOL.

Scientific method. Let's see which one does the best w/ this set-up: Short range models vs NBM:

Probably wise.

One other note on using deterministic global models once inside of 36 hours, they don't have the ability to dial things in like short range models as they lack the hi-res ability to do it. But somehow, they still outperformed the mess scale models IMHO. The ultra hi-res, radar based models did well... So far(and this is like keeping score at halftime), I would rank globals in this order: 1. ICON 2. GFS/Euro 3. CMC(though the CMC picked up on mixing along the mountains first...) Short range modeling(1-2 days out): ....No winners so far. They were all bad. I will probably use global deterministic runs in the future and then switch to RAP/HRRR at the last minute. GFS trends were money at the last minute. Models inside of 24 hours: 1. RAP - for middle and west TN. Not great E TN. But it picked up the expansion of the precip shield northward. 2. HRRR ***The NBM will win this. I don't have it ranked as it is technically not a model, but blends other models. It will be my go-to next time around.***. Each model had its failing and some surprise biases, but the NBM was able to fish out the best outcome IMO.

So far..........The victor will be the later runs of the NBM in my opinion, the ICON in middle and west TN, and track goes to Euro but missed on northern extent of precip(does it have a dry bias???). The GFS absolutely nailed this with its later runs. The Canadian/RGEM package looks sketchy over NE TN. The NAM was terrible - woeful in terms of an amped track. It was bad enough that I won't use it any more. The RGEM probably will win track also but lose on northern precip shields, and lose for Chattanooga. Systems w/ two pulses of snow are notoriously difficult to predict, especially the second. Onsets(bulk fell after dark) of precip helped middle and west TN as precip arrived at night. E TN will be fighting daylight today. In the end, the NBM which blended the modeling probably is going to score the easy win. And it is important to note...Most of this is preliminary as the second half of this has just reached areas north of 40 in the eastern valley. But short range model runs are gutting the west side of this second line - and that is where the NAM likely has met its Waterloo. Knoxville should do really well, and that was on pretty much any model that had breath in its lungs. El Nino systems tend to over perform on the northern precip shield, and this one did yesterday evening and last night as well.

...a WIN for the Euro in E TN for sure w/ the second line. The middle and west precip shield was the error on that model and not the track. The models which were amped with this second wave(E TN) are gonna be wrong, and that includes the NAM. This second wave is very suppressed. The initial wave was about right, but the precip shield was underdone to the north. The NAM whiffed. The HRRR is shifting east with each run. Chattanooga is an exception as the Euro was too SE w/ it.

Snowing in Kingsport pretty good now - high side of moderate.

Very fine flakes of snow are now falling here.

Not trying to one-up Tellico. Here is the entire run. Is it right? IDK. But modeling at 0z has been bumping up numbers, and that gets my attention.

It is even more than that.

Seriously, go look at the GFS.

The 0z GFS is big.

Totals on models at 0z are so far trending upward at 0z for E TN - 3k/12 NAM, ARW, ICON, FV3

For posterity. WSWs for portions of 11 states. That is one cold map. Not to mention the snow in Buffalo and like the fourth coldest NFL playoff game ever in KC yesterday. What a cold snap.

The 0z ARW just went nuts.

Right now we have a metal snowman, an elk, and a one tone woolly bugger working in our favor. Time to bring this home.

On a separate note, there has got to be something off with a station(or programing issue) just to the west of Knoxville. It had 22" of snow and 1.0" of water, and nothing the same around it. It is very visible on the 3K NAM. Anyone know how long that has been an issue? @Daniel Boone, you might be the person to know this.... Or that might be the elk in @Holston_River_Rambler's neighborhood.

The 0z NAM has joined the club for E TN - I think. Whether it is correct in reality? IDK. But it is now in line with other modeling from today's runs.

Are you sending us eastern valley residents a subtle message w/ lots of green east of the Plateau on that thumbnail? LOL.