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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Maybe later this evening or tomorrow morning(once the new MJO plots are out), I will look(and anyone else as wel) a bit deeper into the possibility that the cold returns more quickly. I think even modeling has one foot in that camp and one foot out. Cosgrove has ridden an analog forecast all winter, and it has served him well. I think I remember him saying those analogs say this thaw should be brief. I have Feb cold for my seasonal forecast, so I am definitely hoping for a cold return sooner than later. Thanks for the info!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Feb 10-March11. No, I don't think it will be that dry, but it isn't out of the realm of reason given the strong EPO out West. A strong EPO will often suppress the MJO, and is a negative consequence sometimes of a good Pac set-up. That said, we had nearly the identical precip depiction for January on the Weeklies...I just didn't post the BN precip map, because I thought it was wrong (given seasonal trends for the STJ to win out). I suspect that to be the case this time as well. However, this set-up is slightly different than the mid Jan cold snap. The dominant feature will likely be the EPO/PNA w/ the NAO likely more of a secondary feature. Also, sometimes LR ext modeling will have less precip where there will be more snow. That turned out to be the case recently. Storm track is visible. North Carolina should gets some shots this time around or at least have something to track. @Itryatgolf70, this is fits what Webb was discussing. I do think if the Weeklies had been derived from the 12z run, the control would have been colder and the ensemble warmer. Sometimes, control and operational runs will catch a trend. Either way, I think modeling is beginning to pick-up on cold returning which is great. Cosgrove seems to favor a week 3 return to cold. Though, he has some busted pipes and wants a brief warm-up - I don't blame him. Below is the d9-16 temp map which is cold, and that is what I was really wanting to share. I added the control's full month of Feb just for funl: Sadily, the end of winter is beginning to show up at the very end of the control. The ensemble runs winter well into March. So, the window (about 3 weeks) is on both the control and ensemble. The control is quicker into the EC but burns out quickly. The ensemble is about 7-10 days later, and keeps it colder for a similar time...it only ends, because the run ends.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control (today as well) has been very quick to return cold to the East. its ensemble is about 5-7 days slower. I tend to roll with ensembles at this stage. I hope he is correct. Webb has struggled w/ the EC pattern for most of winter. This would be a great time for him to get it right. Euro control(which is basically just another member of the broader ensemble group of members) is huckleberry. I would also add that there are some MJO runs on the CPC which would support his thinking.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The NE is has been trying to back into something good off-and-on for several runs on different models. That was a wild run. Fujiwhara effect on fully display. I am not sure I have seen it to that level. Backdoor cold fronts will work in regards to at least muting a portion of the MJO. Although, the MJO on a lot of model plots is ducking into 7 and then looping back in 6. That brief relaxation may be allowing for some mischief in New England.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Brave soul!!!!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Fits the timing from this forum. Maybe he has been reading it. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    But truly, I am just glad not to be running in sub 10F wind chill right now. A week or two break is fine with me!
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z operational GFS went back to the warm side again. That model is going to be right....it has literally shown every solution that is possible.
  9. Carvers Gap
    It could happen. It is the Upper South. Even during good winters, we squander a bunch of weeks. February can also rock. Snow just doesn't hang around as long. The MJO is ruling the roost with an iron fist this winter, cold and warm. Yesterday we hit 70 degrees during our colder climatology as the MJO rolled into 6. I read somewhere on another forum that the MJO is fairly random in how it affects EC weather. I tried not to laugh. It is nearly perfectly synced this winter, and has been for the past four years with maybe a couple of notable exceptions. Until it reaches favorable phases, it is going to be warm and approaching daily records at times. That said, it ripped into phase 6 overnight. There is likely going to be a stall somewhere between now and phase 8. The closer it gets to 8, the better we are if/when it stalls. You can see the pattern change back to cold on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z. Ridge gets kicked NE and a trough slowly builds underneath. My snowiest month is almost always February. It just hasn't been lately.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Now that, is a classic El Nino (smash W NC) run, and what I envisioned over the summer...the low road express. It might be a bit too quick w/ the transition to cold, but that is a great example of an active STJ. If this was La Nina, I would worry about dry cold. That gives me reasonable confidence (well, as much confidence as one can have w/ predicting weather) the STJ is going to stay active for a while. El Nino "should" bury the Smokies more times than not.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The good thing is that the actual MJO plot is still moving right along - stall sill predicted within a few days by GFS modeling. The MJO entered 6 on overnight modeling updates. It is about a fourth of the way across. So, it has about 19 days(to hit LR ext modeling timelines) to get from where it is now across the rest of phase 6 and 7...to get to 8. While I do agree it can snow in 7, we are better off in 8=1-2. We are about to find out if it is going to stall. The EMON(Euro ext plot) from yesterday gets across phase 6 in two days. The GMON(GFS ext plot) takes 16 days. One might imagine that timing difference has some pretty big consequences in modeling. A warning about the EMON, that is based upon yesterday's 0z run. Today's 0z run looks like hot garbage...so, we will see tomorrow morning what the new Weeklies MJO plot looks like. Take a look at the last two runs of the GFS(0z and 6z). One is a warmista pattern, and one is a return to winter(warm wx did we even know ya?) pattern. And that has been a common theme with that model for a couple of days. The GFS is just picking flower petals with each run right now.....loves me, loves me not. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    It could be a slog through some very warm temps to get there. It reminds me of this past December in a lot of ways. Lots of warm weather and despair. The MJO plots today don't give me happy thoughts, but hopefully those ext long range looks know something the CPC MJO programming doesn't. My main concern is seeing modeling get to 6 and not being able to past it. They just hit a wall. I thought maybe at first that was jus some bias. However, a full stall or a loop in the warm phases is likely at this point. The good thing is that the timeline by LR ext modeling still looks reasonable(unless the GFS is right) even with the full stall taken into account. The GFS MJO (from this morning) would end winter, but I don't think it is right.. I "think" we see a nice return to winter, but I can definitely make an argument that its return could be brief and muted. For now, I do like seeing agreement in long range ext modeling about the progression, timeline, and duration of the cold snap. But at 21 days out.....it could still flip.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The first two are control runs for week 4. The last two are their accompanying ensembles. I have some commentary in the Jan thread(thought I was in this thread).
  14. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, man, sorry!!! I will get the rest of my posts in your Feb thread. I thought that is where I was!!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    This is this week compared to week 4(well days 20-27...run is still going) of the GEFS extended. This is a signal for a pretty nice cold shot from this range. It will change some, but worth noting. When the entire continent is cold...source regions are good. Send the STJ into that....and could be interesting.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS ext is showing the same thing during that time frame. Now, some can kicking wouldn't be out of the norm, but nice time frame if it works out. If not, we start tracking spring wx and making vacation plans
  17. Carvers Gap
    I don't think a single model shows the same thing. LOL. It looks like a squirrel went berserk in the First Self-Righteous Church In that sleepy little town of Pascagoula. As for a dry spell. I won't ever rule it out. Cold and dry is not abnormal. But the STJ is absolutely ripping right now. Should be good in that regard.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Not trying to wish my life away, but I am pretty much flushing the next three weeks in terms of looking for winter. So, the end of week 3 is where my eyes are for now.... Week 4 of the Weeklies...control and then ensemble....days 21-28. You can see the 18z GEFS begin to erode the eastern ridge. The Euro Weeklies basically slide a decent trough in there by the 14th. At that point, we should see an absolutely torrid cold front race across the country around that timeframe - give our take 48 hours. Now, this is still waaaay out there. It could change, and probably will. The MJO is trying to dance around in 6-7-8. I think if we can get the MJO headed towards 8, the floodgates(of cold) are gonna be open. It looks like the EPO is the driver w/ a -NAO possible accentuating that. My guess is the stratwarm stuff will do about what it did last week. It will be a warmer air mass than last week likely as it is a month later than last week.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Maybe some wrap-around snow. As Jeff noted, wall-to-wall cold during January for 14 days is unlikely. That said, this is definitely a warm-warm-warm upcoming time frame on the horizon. What comes after Feb 1 could be toasty. Fortunately, it should be only a couple of weeks after that...and then we are back in the freezer.
  20. Carvers Gap
    It was like summer over here! The only thing I hate is that it is going to erase our negative temperature departure. Somebody is gonna talk about how warm January 2024 was! LOL. If they only knew.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And it makes no sense to me in the modern era to only use airport reporting. (I do know that historic snow records do exist for Kingsport proper). Really, I have no problem w/ regular people sending in reports which populate a larger database. Sure, there would be some scientific descepency. That said, it would be pretty easy to develop programming which would flush outliers. TRI more often times than not doesn't tell the entire story for snow in the Tri-Cities. Often, it is the least snowiest place in the region....well, outside of the EB!!! LOL. With satellite reporting, it should be better than it is. In southwest Virginia, I don't think people realize how snow that area is right on the KY/VA border. Wise just gets clobbered, and so does your area. Off topic, one of my favorite things on Friday night is to see the highlights from SW VA. So many small schools, but such great tradition. Some great ballers from that area!
  22. Carvers Gap
    True on 2015 here in Kingsport. We had snow on the ground for about a month. I have roughly 30 inches of snow at my house. It is the most I have seen during a season.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies look right on track for cold to return around the 14th, give or take 48 hours at this range. The control is bitterly cold around the 20th, and the CFSv2 has a similar signal. Most global ensembles are showing the initial transition around d15-16. Remember, transition does not mean the day we get cold. Should be 4-7 days after that initial transition. Looks like a similar window (Against mid Feb norms and not mid Jan) to the one we just departed. A very 95-96 or 14-15 cycle of cold. MJO is ruling the roost and it is super squirrelly right now. We should see opportunities with this, and it looks centered slightly more eastward. JB mentioned that adjustment and that looks to be the case.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Actually, I didn't put it in the thread, because I doubted it. (I certainly doubt the snow record for TRI.) I just thought it was kind of cool. I lived in Knox during the 70s, and we had plenty of snow. But I don't remember it staying around like this storm. I did also live in Knoxville during the 95-96 winter. Similar to 93-94, it hung around for a long time. I think that post by MRX indeed might be correct for lower elevations in Knoxville. Knoxville, being right smack on the river, doesn't keep snow like other areas. Kingsport is the same. So, seeing snow last this long is rare IMBY. North facing slopes here still have plenty of snow as do north facing concert sidewalks. That is ten days from the onset of snow, which is incredibly impressive. Glad for the warm-up!!!!!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Remember when there was discussion about how dry things were in December and how warm it was? One thing that was noted was that if this was an El Nino winter it should be cloudy and rainy, especially for the eastern half of the state. The other thing which was noted was that the second half of winter should be colder w/ systems tracking out of the GOM. Also, remember how the October/September time frames were so dry(this year was top 5 driest...three of the years were El Nino), but that the following winter featured a lot of cold? The potential for flooding is now an issue for mid and late week due to our snow pack melting -> welcome to El Nino.
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