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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man! I had it in the queue for you or John or holston. AMZ definitely brings the cold when he starts a thread. December is gonna be a cold thread. Take it to the bank now.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I just want summer to be over before met winter starts!!! LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking that looked like the strat was getting hammered pretty good. Two lobes at 30mb and 50mb around this timeframe. I don't know if I would call it a split, but definitely looks dislodged. Reading in the MA....I would add to their discussion and say that active Pac jet may be the cause of it.
  4. Carvers Gap
    This is what I am looking at. It was there at 12z, but not this crazy. The 18z GEFS has it as well. The GFS has an uncanny ability of spotting early season cold. I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but it is worth noting even at this range. Just a few snippets from 18z.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That high gets to 1065 I think near the Yukon.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The thing I like, and it is in fantasy land...is that big 1055 high late in the run. When we see those in December, that is a good sign if it verifies. Big highs in Montana will often find their way here as long as they are on the east slopes.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Happy hour, baby!!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Flow is fast, but we can score with that setup on the 12z GFS and CMC. I am not talking about one particular event, just the general setup. That is a good setup for John and folks in NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA. I am halfway eyeballing a weak overrunning event as well, especially for middle and western areas. That look is a shallow trough with the area of confluence around the KY/TN border....and kind of offset eastward just a bit. That allows for the low left section of the trough to be attacked by return flow. Potential is there. 12z GFS is honking later in that run.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Go back and dig through our Nina Decembers and compare them to these ensembles at 360. This look often delivers pretty significant cold shots. HUGE grains o salt at this range, but a decent signal at range.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z ensembles depict a fairly typical cold start to winter with sever cold over Montana bleeding southeastward into the Upper South w/ the Apps as the demarcation line. That looks has delivered some crazy cold into portions of our forum area during the past decade and a half. I suspect we see something similar again. The 12z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS all show another strong cold shot around d12-15. It is possible they are a bit ahead of things....it is also possible they are sensing a very strong cold shot. When cold is that strong on an ensemble at range....reality "could" be much colder.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS continues to advertise a vey sharp change in our weather regime. Winter is on its way, folks. That is not a promise of snow, but there are certainly chances on the GFS. LR ext(weeklies) models washed out the strength of the troughs heading east. Now that the pattern is in range, it is a bit more chippy than what we saw on the Weeklies. Some STRONG amplification showing up.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Weekend shift at WJHL is talking about upslope later next week.
  13. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS now has the low pivoting over NE TN. That is a really cold run. Winter is on all modeling this afternoon.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Looking at ensembles and LR ensembles....winter is on our doorstep.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I think it is going to depend on how far south that energy dives. Trends often pull that energy north over time(we have seen it happen dozens of times). That may well be our set-up for snow this winter...nickel and dime stuff.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and Euro have a decent NW flow event on tap. GFS it typically too progressive. Looks like a really good chance for 5-10" of snow for folks above 3000'. NE TN could get into the action, especially if the low doesn't trend northward(which it could). The Euro and CMC are very good setups.
  17. Carvers Gap
    There is gonna be a thaw. Now whether that thaw is a "thaw" or spring....IDK. Just for kicks and giggles, and it isn't overly accurate at this range. That isn't a warm look.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I didn't know this until reading some of DT's stuff at wxrisk, but the operational Euro is out to 360(not just 240). And that is one cold looking run at 12z. Wow.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC "almost" pops an inland runner Miler A. The GFS is more of an Ohio Valley special which deepens and pushes NW flow into the area. Either way, chances are increasing that higher elevations across the Plateau and Apps are gonna see some snowfall during that timeframe. I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow showers in the valleys of E TN.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I am not seeing big changes in ensembles at all. Maybe I need to go back and look more carefully. Operational runs are going to swing wildly with a potential pattern change in the works. Also, it is worth noting that storms in the 7 day range tend to disappear and then reappear. 18z GFS is a pretty robust late, fall system. We take that in a heartbeat.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Evaporating snow chances in the Upper South are a way of life. Gotta be tough at this latitude. Welcome to the show! Let's see what becomes of it. We are kind of in that window where things get lost. But Boone probably is correct that our best chances are on northwest flow - if that. Looks like the cold front is out of sync with the GOM system. As long as it isn't 85 degrees in November anymore, I can live with that change. LOL. ...all of my wife's family is from around Canton.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Right. I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event. Even that is not guaranteed. Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Really, really nice upslope event on the 12z CMC.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS just about got it.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has found the cold....that is gonna leave a mark.
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