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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    What went poof? Not following.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has a full on blizzard for portions of the East.
  3. Carvers Gap
    1054 hp sitting on top of a big storm in the SE. What could go wrong?
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is set to bring the mother load on this run.
  5. Carvers Gap
    On pretty much all ensembles, the feature(and it is striking) the NAO that starts to build. If that is correct and not an error, that is significant. I have been hesitant to really jump on that boat as it failed during late January, but that is a prominent feature which would trump all other drivers most likely. During late winter, that is a "draw four" in Uno.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS jumped in the cold boat. I am confident in the 3 week timeframe from say Feb14 to March 7. If we manage to stay cold all (or most) of March, winter hasn't even started. That....is how cold modeling looks right now.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Technically, the Weeklies have sped up the change at 500 to Feb 12. Surface temp response still appears to be around the 15th with the strongest cold arriving around the 20th and after that relative to norms. Very similar progression to early January.
  8. Carvers Gap
    If the MJO didn’t look so squirrelly, I would roll with the Euro Weeklies today and say, “Extended winter is on tap!” But something feels off with this. I think it is going to be cold...but duration is sketchy. I do think a cold time frame from Feb 14 through the first week of March looks good. After that is what I am not sure about...if the Weeklies are correct, the Groundhog in PA is just a wee a bit off his game. LOL
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS still showing a fairly significant system around the 20-21st.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome! I have always wanted to see lake effect snow.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS (ensemble) is showing multiple days with highs near or just below freezing....Those are probably a bit too cold, but that just shows the potential for where this pattern could go. So far, still on schedule for cold arriving on Feb13-14th depending on where you live in the forum.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z suite has a great boundary setting up after the 15th. The CMC looks the best, but the GFS isn't terrible either.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Overnight ensemble runs are cold for the aforementioned timeframe. The GFS (pasts two runs) is picking up on a stormy time frame around the 20th. As many of noted, the best winter storms are often picked out at range. It could go poof, but worth watching.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yes, on the ensemble 30 day map further above. That means there are likely colder shots embedded in the valley. For example, TRI finished only -1F for 31 days during January. Even -5 for a week is cold during Feb. But for sure, Feb is not mid Jan. Sun angles work against us and nighttime snows are preferable. Also, those temps are cold for a d10-15 ensemble as ensembles wash out colder and warmer solutions. They are rarely colder than that at this range.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is how we get a warm pattern from a cold look...I don't think it is correct. As JB points out, it has problems when very cold air is in southwest Canada - feedback.
  16. Carvers Gap
    30day 500 map. Lots of good on that map if you like extended winter. Davis Straits - check. Aleutians - check. PNA/EPO - check. Storm track - check.
  17. Carvers Gap
    What kind of actual melted water precip are we talking? That is just an insane amount of water. If that was rain, that would be a monsoon.
  18. Carvers Gap
    So, maybe the short story is this, we had a bright, bright sunshiny day on Feb 2. You know who saw his shadow IMBY.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I had all of these on deck last night, but wanted to see 24 more hours of model runs. There is not guarantee any of the above is reality, but modeling is leaning strong towards cold(maybe very cold) solutions. One thing which is showing up right now is a VERY strong -NAO which tends to be colder(less likely to hook into the SE ridge) during later winter. When we start to see California get slammed, that is a decidedly Nino signal. Maybe we are about to see the final breaths of Nino, but it is the perfect time of the year for it.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Sorry for the mass dump, I have been sitting on these a few days. This is the Euro control 7d map for the 19-26th. That might be a bit extreme! 7 day departures at -23F below normal (departures and not actual temps)!!! LOL. But models have been keying on this timeframe for several weeks. Now that we are starting to see a bit better, I feel more comfortable with the share. Does this verify? IDK, but they are fun to look at....
  21. Carvers Gap
    Below are the lead analogs to the extended maps. I "think the time to watch will be Feb20-28 and possible beyond. Day 8-14 CPC analogs 19680210 19780222 19840302 19770204 19680228 19800210 20050302 19700211 19580217 19950205
  22. Carvers Gap
    The five days leading up to the above maps d10-15....all global ensembles.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Here you go, folks. 30 day maps of both precip and temps. Let's lock this in, and get to tracking in a few days. No idea if this happens, but we really can't ask for a better look. This is well within the range of normal ensembles, and not just ext stuff.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies ext are pretty much frigid once this pattern matures. Really can't ask for a better look. I am not saying it is going to happen, but man.......................
  25. Carvers Gap
    Normally, I don't post 384 maps, but the ensembles are honking at 12z. It's on.....
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