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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    JB has a great post on the past ten days of MJO trends. It is truly astounding at how bad the plot has been. I didn't realize it had been that bad. I kind of suspected it, but yikes. I would screenshot a portion of his post, but I think those are his thoughts...and are his to share publicly or not. I don't Twitter often, so maybe he posted those three plots.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I will say this...if the Euro Weeklies had been derived from 12z, I don't think they would have looked nearly as good. It could be a hiccup, but 12z was the first time that global ensembles seem to break from their Weeklies. What does that mean? It means it would have been very tough to see global ensembles move to a trough in the East after d16. This disconnect also happened right after Christmas. Even the Weeklies blinked and then returned to their old, colder forecasts. It took a few days for ensembles to adjust to MJO forecasts. Day10-16...it seems global forecast models struggle w/ cold, and wash it completely out. But there may be reasons for that this time. Again, as for the MJO...it is a mess. Choose your own adventure. What we do know is that right now it has raced across phase 6 which it was not forecast to do. That said, it "should" stall (during the next few days) given satellite and OLR looks. Where it stalls is going to be important. The MJO definitely slowed on this morning's run. Getting most of the way across 6 is a big victory. Let's see if it hits the wall. If it continues to race across 7, we will know the MJO plots were in major error. Big test coming up. Even Cosgrove this evening seems to have been knocked of his spot a bit by the warm, warm run of the 12z GFS suite. Let's hope it was a blip.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And this his how you draw up a 30 day map...the groundhog better get some sunglasses for Feb 2 if this is right.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies control again today w/ big numbers. Couple of light events during the last weeks of Feb. Most of this falls during two storms in early March. The ensemble was similar to yesterday w/ snow into Tallahassee this run.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Winter Storm Warnings up for the Apps.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-280900- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.240128T1200Z-240129T1800Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 3000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts possible on the mountain peaks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee above 3000 feet. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds and snow will reduce visibility to less than a quarter mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the GEFS and GEPS ensembles have the low trekking across the GOM...it just doesn't turn. Timeframe definitely has my attention. Great posts by everyone.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerthat could evolve into something good though. Could easily be a slider if blended with the GFS. Definitely worth watching. Still a ways out there. Good find.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a hybrid Miller w some energy transfer verbatim through middle TN. Very good MA look and maybe even North Carolina.
  9. Carvers Gap
    As for the Feb 5 system, energy transfer is an issue on the Euro. The GFS is likely progressive. Decent little window if it holds. If that deepens on the coast that could bring the cold in quicker. Maybe we can steal a storm before the bear cold arrives.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Might be about to hit “go time” for tracking. The MJO is almost out of 6, but did slow down a bit since yesterday. There is still a forecasted loop back into warm phases, but that is beginning to feel like a “Lucy pulls the football” look - meaning the MJO is going to keep progressing (albeit maybe slower) and not stall in warm phases. The MJO plots at CPC this morning are pretty much a “choose your own adventure” bank of options. The good thing is that most of them keep the MJO to the left of the plot which is cooler or cold. I think decent cold is still in the Feb 14 range - give or take 48 hours. There is still an outside chance this gets here a bit earlier (not referencing the cold shot just before that).
  11. Carvers Gap
    Sure!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies are bumping up snow for Feb and early March. I don't worry about actual totals, but just look for storm tracks.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That is exactly what my post was about....they are all in sync including the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. They are all singing the same song. They are within just a few hours of each other re: progression.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies and today’s 12z ensemble continue to be in sync in terms of progressions. Maybe there is a can kick of 24 hours to Feb 15th. That is remarkable consistency thus far from LR modeling. Looks like maybe a mini cold shot around the 5th, a return to much above normal warmth for a week, and then NA cools down for 3+ weeks. Looks like a great pattern if it can verify - an old fashioned February winter pattern vs being an extension of spring.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Between the fall drought and the recent cold...grass here looks pretty much toasted in most places. Your grass seems to green up earlier than TRI. You have a green thumb!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Also, for me, one of the most interesting times in using computer models to predict the weather as a hobby....is when ensembles can’t keep up with trends. I am not sure we are seeing that just yet, but maybe. The GFS will often pivot before other operational modeling, and we might be seeing that. If has been flirting with a return to cold earlier than its ensemble as has the Euro control. OTH operationals are likely just too fast with the cold. For now, ensembles are probably right...but one can see the change to a colder pattern between d10-16.
  17. Carvers Gap
    FTR, I am not quite ready to say that the return to cold is speeding up. All ensembles are still warm through the 10th. That said, if the MJO input into modeling is as bad as it has been modeled on CPC...we could see a fairly significant change in modeling within the next 24-48 hours. Yes, I am not predicting weather but model trends!
  18. Carvers Gap
    The CPC MJO is now 75% across phase 6 of the MJO...in just two days. It matches perfectly the extreme warmth we have had at TRI...nearly to the hour. It went up slightly in amplitude. However, now we wait to see if it stalls. If it leaves 6 tomorrow, we know that modeling was badly wrong. The fact the MJO has been moving this fast is already a model error on those plots. So, I cautiously think it will leave 6 quickly. Tomorrow will tell the tale.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Interesting find. I always like DT. I haven't read his stuff in a couple of winters. Thunder in the mountains....eerily accurate little rule. The 0z GEFS is definitely quicker. It is still very warm, but at 500 it is in the boat. The 0z EPS and GEPS are about on schedule (Feb12-14 cold switch). The 6z GFS is one backdoor cold front after another - so, it shows the potential. It really seems(and this is where I would differ w/ DT) that the pattern is centered around a NE blizzard/snowstorm. If it materializes, then it could force a trough into the EC w/ the power of its circulation. If the MJO is still moving strongly for the next couple of days...we will know the warm pattern will likely be shorter. I think models are very much struggling w/ the Pacific set-up though...I can get on board with that. I am definitely good w/ the warmth ending sooner than latter. TRI was almost 22.8 degrees above normal yesterday. It felt like early summer. The low yesterday was 53. In two days, our BN departures were cut in half which is tough to day given that there are only five days left in Jan(and lots of data points balance out warm). My one concern is that some modeling is showing a quicker return to cold...but on those models, the warmth comes back mid-month and the cold isn't quite strong enough for snow. I think that is the MJO looping back into warm phases showing up. That might be an error. OTH, this may just be one of those winters where it is cold and stormy and modeling never catches up. It is starting to seem that way. Big model test coming up. If all modeling misses an early February cold snap, maybe it is time to start asking why(for the second time this winter) modeling missed something that significant on the cold side of things.
  20. Carvers Gap
    JB mentioned tonight that with AI, wx forecasting(by humans) is probably near the end of its time. That is true for a lot of jobs. Right now as hobby(wx), we are essentially working to understand what will be infused into tomorrow's computer program. Nobody cares about IOS on iPhones, they just care that it works dependably. Is the weather headed in the same direction. As long as the app works, does it matter if a single person on this planet understands the atmospheric physics behind the computer program? I hope there will always be people who seek to understand, to think, to better their minds. Anyway, I thought a good deep dive discussion might be how this hobby and potentially wx forecasting as a whole will survive the influx of almost certain AI programming. I am reminded in Dances with Wolves when Costner's character was asked how many European settlers were coming West. He hedged the first few times he was asked. Then, he was honest....the influx of people was going to be enormous and unstoppable. AI reminds me of being in a place without burdens and constructs...the potential is there for AI to swallow up everything that we know and hold dear just as the Plains cultures were swallowed up. Certainly, AI can make our lives better. For Native Americans, they would be given modern tools...but the Plains in which many lived would be fenced, property rights given, and their way of life gone. Well, anyway, after this Ecclesiastical post(everything is meaningless), have at it....
  21. Carvers Gap
    They aren't blooming, but just breaking the surface. Some years, they are up by early January. They are on a south facing slope.
  22. Carvers Gap
    This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule. If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule. I mean it works about 90% of the time. We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time. We will use thunder only for next winter if so.
  23. Carvers Gap
    My daffodils made it to the surface which surprises me! Our snow just cleared two days ago. I think someone in that group of perennials was like, "Let's make a break for it." LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Snowman has to stay up until second week of March, man. Got to find a way. Be careful, someone from the Mid-Atlantic forum might come for it though. I have my blue snow shovel out front from the 14-15' winter. Just doing my part.
  25. Carvers Gap
    We may have used up our elk mojo. It all comes down to whether that wooly worm was right, and whether the metal snowman(whose was that?) has got anything left in the tank. Now, in YNP elk will go to lower elevations if it gets cold. The elk may be headed to Florida for vacation.
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