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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I will add that the massive wild card is the SSW. If we see modeling go haywire...then we know we might be back in business a bit earlier.
  2. Carvers Gap
    So, same rules for me as December for me. I am not going to be in here talking about the upcoming warm-up every day. By my best guess, Jan 24-Feb15 will be a true pattern change w/ much above normal temps. Then, we will try to squeak three weeks of winter from a time of the year which really doesn't want to do winter (of late)....Feb17 through the first week of March. The MJO jerked the rug out from under us for the first few weeks of Feb. To be clear, modeling has been adamant of the MJO going slowly through the warm phases before heading to 8. It is no surprise. However, that same modeling showed very cold temps during that warm MJO rotation, and that looks to be a massive error. So, we will pay the MJO toll....and fingers crossed, return back to tracking in about a month. We do have one window somewhere near Jan 31 which is an outside shot. Other than that, warm temps are on the horizon. So, unless you hear otherwise....I am anticipating warm temps. I will check back in some as the next colder stretch comes into focus(if it comes into focus).
  3. Carvers Gap
    Snow has been kicking here for most of the day.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking that just a minute ago. I think many (besides the foothills and Chattanooga and TRI) have their seasonal totals. I am about halfway there. I truly don't believe that was the last week of snowy weather. I do, however, think that was our worst week of winter.
  5. Carvers Gap
    What we are dealing with right now is a quickly eroding El Niño.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We managed to get a loop back into 2 which delayed the onset of forecasted warmth. The upcoming warm spell was delayed by about ten days due to that. The overall progression is the same, but ended up being slower. We aren’t going to dodge the MJO warm phases this time around. It is also pretty normal to get a big warmup after a big cold shot like this. In fact, it is not uncommon for winter to end after big cold shots like this. For now, I think winter takes about a 3 week break and maybe 4. I would not be surprised to see winter depart though. However, with phase 8 looming in mid Feb...should be one more (3) week window for winter. Still, keep an eye out for the time frame just before Jan 31 or just after....very small but decent window for a storm if we can get energy into the pattern then. Look for a storm to eject almost due northward then.
  7. Carvers Gap
    One inch of additional snow here, maybe more. Roads in portions of KPT are a mess. We have a layer of glaze underneath.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Moderate to heavy sleet, zr, and sn falling IMBY. Roads are a mess.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Freezing rain in Kingsport.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a concern, especially closer to the Gulf Coast.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Last two weeks of Feb...that is what we are saying is possible.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Exactly what the Weeklies look like this afternoon for that time frame.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I like Feb 15-17 as a return to sustained cold. If it is earlier, that is a bonus! Otherwise, I think we get very cold last two weeks of that month and first week of March. The Euro Weeklies look very good in that regard. I still am hopeful for some cold around Feb1(quick hitter).
  14. Carvers Gap
    Reel it in, man!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the CFSv2 seasonal has recently been less than enthusiastic about Feb. However, it threw this out this morning. If that is with a warm start for week 1, then that is signaling a pretty frigid second half of the month.
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is the Jan30-Feb1 timeframe which I mentioned. I don't see anything on deterministic modeling yet. However, that is a great set-up if real. The CMC has more ridging underneath, but maybe watch for a trend for this to deepen if real. This was on Weeklies runs forever, and has washed out a bit lately. However, the GFS would likely pick this up at range first or the Canadian (more ridging over the SE). It is a quick hitter, so timing the STJ with this is important. That is about a 48 hour window for something decent.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Great post.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yes. I remember you talking about this earlier this winter. Some strong and interesting debates on this ranging from climate to geological influence. There should be more rain/thunderstorm activity near the dateline as the Nino water is warm. I have been unable to get a handle on why that is. Very, very odd for convection not to be there....could lead to future drought as that set-up is really what replenishes our water in the SE. The ENSO signature for SSTs is definitely there. However, the SOI near Australia is not in sync at all and is more Nina like. I "think" JB shared that '78 had a similar MJO rotation to this winter. The PDO is also part of that fabric.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Yeah, this most recent winter storm occurred as we moved from 3 into 4. 3 is also a decent phase for winter storms. I need to get my hands on an MJO tendency plot for El Nino winters.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Yeah, I have never hated 7...but the CPC temp maps imply warmth here. I have always associated it with cold during later winter as well.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I fully expect to see modeling go completely nuts within a few days. That SSW should begin to be noticeable in the troposphere shortly (in LR modeling). The first thing I usually notice is a western Atlantic ridge which creates abnormal warming along the East Coast. That seems to be a very common response, and that is actually what splits the PV at lower levels. The SOI is also way, way out of sync with the Nino - JB was talking about that recently. It is almost a Nina state which is what we don't want for Feb. If it crashes, hang on tight.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove sounded concerned this morning re: severe wx next week and heavy rain to our south. Said we should see a storm flip the pattern back cold if it can drive to a high enough latitude. Jax’s MJO post last night is optimal. Boone is correct that warm-ups have been brief since Christmas. Jack has been money this year w the MJO.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update! Always good to know what is happening on the ground.
  24. Carvers Gap
    We want that MJO to boogie during the next couple of weeks. Good sign. Plots look quicker into 7 this morning on CPC, but then it dies out(which has been an error all season across modeling). Maybe we can get into phase 8 by the end of week 1....would be huge.
  25. Carvers Gap
    HRRR looks icy and MRX agrees(light icing to clarify): Isentropic lift ahead of a surface low to our west will result in increasing clouds and light precipitation this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is increasing in freezing rain and light ice accumulation across the region, especially for the valley around 0z and later this evening. Model guidance continues to show a warm nose in the 2 to 4C range around 800-850mb which should melt any snow to freezing rain. Amounts appear light, but most areas should expect around 0.1 inch or less with localized spots up to 0.2 inch of ice accretion. We have trended towards the HRRR and colder guidance for temperatures with this system which seem to better account for the dense, cold air across the valley. This is a case where pattern recognition is important to consider. Models routinely overestimate the surface warm air in these situations and move the cold air across the valley out too quickly. With this dense, arctic airmass and snowpack, shallow cold air will be very slow to exit the valley, especially sheltered valleys across the area. This light freezing rain will likely create hazardous travel conditions overnight and into Friday morning. We have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory based on the slightly cooler forecast and additional areal coverage of light ice accretion. Colder air will advect into the region behind the cold front on Friday with some light snow possible across the area. Most locations will only see flurries or a dusting, but a few inches of snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains where northwest flow and low-level moisture persists. This light snow continues through the day on Friday and tapers off to flurries and rime ice on Friday night.
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