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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the high for January will be 70 and the low will be 3 at TRI. That is pretty amazing, especially given that those two occurred roughly 7 days apart.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Some of the great winter patterns of E TN are mid-Feb to mid-March. Got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I am somewhere between hold'em and run! LOL. Anyway, storm track looks like a classic Nino end game. No idea if it verifies, but it could certainly be worse.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Right now we are -0.9. Going to have to hold that during the next three days.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think it repeats the mid-Jan pattern. It is not out of the realm of possibility that these temps will be colder vs the norm. The key is getting a storm to deepen earlier than later in the pattern. Modeling is probably not going to be able to spot that at this range. If I was wanting to possibly find a thorn, it would be the SSW likes to dump cold in Asia as a first choice. If I was going half empty, I would say we get the trough but no source region for cold. I think we will be good though.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Cold won't usually flip instantaneously. That said, cold will be washed out at this range. Could easily be colder than that look. The EPS has had a wicked warm bias at this range all winter.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We have talked about the delay a bunch. Convection over the MC and convection near Darwin is the reason. When it fires, the MJO is headed for 6. Yes, it should move through 8. We are actually out of phase 6 today - fingers crossed that we say out. Modeling busted hugely by stalling it in 6 - it appears for now. The MJO has kept chugging along. Technically, it is in a colder phase now which is phase 7 during the MJO. There is a loop that may(or may not) occur which is the push back on surface temps on the Euro Weeklies. Trends right now are to move the MJO at higher amplitudes into 8, and earlier than prognosticated - this is important...I don't think modeling has responded to that phase 8 trend yet. Last time, modeling didn't catch that until around d10 - the mid Jan cold shot was missed by modeling as modeling seems to wash out MJO signals until inside d10. The intensity of warm wx was also caught late. I think we have also said that if this was similar to January, can kicking would be likely. It is very common for an eastern ridge to break down slowly as it is super stable. The pattern flip during late December was also delay about 5 days. That said, the 500 pattern is right on schedule. But just because we have a trough over the EC doesn't mean cold immediately dumps into it. In fact, I think this forum has been the most conservative in saying the cold would be delayed - Webber called for an early flip as did a couple of other mets. We have consistently said that the cold would not arrive until mid-month. Interestingly, we are going to finish right around seasonal temps for January at TRI.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The Euro LR ext has some crazy good snow means for E TN and much of the forum area, both ensemble and control. 500 pattern is right on time. Temps lag as the trough fills with cold - takes about 72 hours once the trough is in place. If a storm amps, it will likely fill quickly. Ali most identical progression to early Jan.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Met's under that light blue dot, and won't be able to post for a while.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Just reading across other subforums, I see a lot of disappointment that winter has taken a hiatus for the first half of February. LR ext modeling has been barely budged in suggesting the cold comes back around the 14th - give or take 48 hours. Ensembles have been locked-in for weeks. The MJO has certainly led the way on this. The great thing is that modeling has been very accurate with this warm-up. That makes me think they are probably correct about having roughly a 3 week stretch of cold to close out winter. I hear the "we are giving away half of February" talk. For the past three years, we have pretty much lost all of Feb due to Nina climatology and the trough being stuck in the West. The next good thing is that global ensembles have the transition to cold. Sure, there could be some can kicking, but....the cold being depicted to return the 14-15th time frame is not can kicking. Extended LR modeling has barely budged with that timeframe. It is possible it may have shown the 10th at some point, but the 500 pattern has been consistent for some time. It is actually remarkable work by LR ext modeling if it pans out. I suspect the coldest pattern will be Feb20-29th....maybe we can score a leap year storm. I get that climatology starts to fight us, with the exception of one area....big late winter and/or early spring snow storms.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove must be smiling.....high amplitude phase 8 is on the table. We have crossed the rubicon and are in phase 7. Most MJO plots are quicker today. I would expect some pretty cold solutions will start showing up just after Feb15. That idea is also supported by LR ext modeling.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, they come out every day now - new thing. They looked maybe a half a day faster at 500 w/ the trough sliding into the eastern half of the country on the 13th. I don't think it will immediately flip cold(very much like when the pattern set-up in early January). Temps "should" begin to slide BN(or at least seasonal) by the 15th. I still wouldn't be surprised w/ some can-kicking, and I also wouldn't be surprised if it got here earlier. The MJO is very slowly coming out of phase 6. On some plots, I think it was out of 6 yesterday....CPC, it was still there. Plots for CPC should update any time. Honestly, if you look at the GEPS ensemble from overnight, it looks basically like that.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that long pauses in winter are customary in the valleys. We don't do wall-to-wall winters very often as that is an extreme anomaly which doesn't occur but maybe every 15-20 years at best. Having February look that decent is a massive bonus and that is a textbook Nino look.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS now looks like the EPS ext from yesterday....The GEPS gets there about 24 hours quicker. Either way, this is what we mean when we begin to see Weeklies and global ensembles in sync. Pretty good agreement between two different models.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I feel like the 12z GEFS does not support the operational run. I would say half probably have a decent snowstorm somewhere in the SE....there are some progressive OTS members for sure. However, the GEFS has more amped solutions than even the GEPS. Not in a place where I can post...
  15. Carvers Gap
    Sneaky big storm at this range right now. Boone was on this from day one.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I would say roughly 40% of ensembles from both the GEFS and GEPS have a big winter storm for the SE and/or MA. That is a pretty stout signal at this range. I think for the TN Valley, this is a tougher sell at this point. I would be fired up in the MA. E TN and NE TN(especially) are in the game...Gefs seemed to have more TN storms.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z Gefs and Geps.... MSLP and individual surface low placement maps (where all lows are on one map), show a trend towards a deeper low with more members to the north and west of the mean placement. Plenty of time for this to get bigger. Classic Nino, low road track. The Canadian ensemble has some big dog tracks.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Textbook Miller B, Mid Atlantic track. Energy goes through middle TN and then hands off to the Piedmont. Not good for us, but certainly that is a big storm signal for them and maybe NC.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Silas, you posted it. Awesome. That is a powerhouse. The GFS is often too progressive (exception was last winter), so that could be big.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has a strong Miller B solution for the MA and another lower latitude system after that. I wasn’t sold on that timeframe earlier...but the potential is there for sure. The 12z gfs went OTS, but if I showed its solution with a powerful slp over Louisiana...might make one think twice.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I think you are right. Just eyeballing modeling today, there is a slight delay there, maybe 24-36 hours. I think models have been too quick to break down the ridge. Modeling has been off-and-on though for several days re: cold. It may well be that serious cold is about to return to NA, and it's causing models to go haywire in the LR.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I had the unfortunate honor of taking one-too-many computer programming classes while in college. I had a math class where we had to write calculus programming in basic - gag. I could do fundamental programming, but calculus rarely agreed with me. Fortunately, I had a buddy who was great at calculus, and we handled the programming together. Computer wx models are nothing just programming code. Take some time to think about that. I will say this, some of what we see on modeling looks like infinite loops - meaning the program gets locked onto a trend and cannot move to anything new. We see that in the form of feedback on the NAM at range. We have seen that with recent MJO plots. When it is warm, modeling tends to stay warm. The opposite is also true. Sometimes the change itself is feedback. It seems that problem has been worse this winter. I also think that three years of Nina data has really skewed modeling towards Nina responses. In reality, this is a textbook Nino winter so far. If I hadn't looked at a model and had been blindfolded from all internet data, this feels like a Nino winter - cold, damp, rainy, cloudy, some cold, big snows, grass gets green early(no lie...weird characteristic of Nino winters).
  23. Carvers Gap
    I just roll with the ensembles at this range.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I don't think any of them have been particularly good this winter. They have not handled the Nino rotations well. It is almost like they are pre-programmed to Nina tendencies, and have missed badly due to that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS wasn't a can kick(from timeline which has been discussed here) that I could tell. Cosgrove had thought that the cold would return well before the 12th. Earlier operational runs supported that return to cold earlier in the timeline....the 12z operational booted that. I think he has adjusted his thinking and is saying President's Day though early March. I will say, I didn't like see the EPS stall that trough out West. The control kept it moving. This is feels like late December deja vu. The conversations are very similar. What we do know is the firing of convection over the MC was strong, and at some point it should be reflected on the CPC MJO plots. I have been super adamant that this warm spell was going to be legit. I would not be surprised at some can kicking as these eastern ridges are TOUGH to eliminate. They are super stable. I am just riding with the ensembles right now.
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