Carvers Gap

Might be time to get those two SE counties in TN...included in the WSW.

GFS and CMC at 12z build a glacier over the forum area.

Yeah, man. I thought the same. Winch chills in my area are 18-23F....pretty brutal. I don't know that it will feel likes the 40s at any point.

Two random things which I thought about: 1. Climatology track is winning out...so far 2. The jet max might be playing a part in the eastern valley....

Kind of an interesting comparison between the RGEM and NAM at 12z. For me, I prefer the RGEM beginning at 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow - meaning it is about in range where I trust it but not quite yet. That said, modeling isn't too far off. You can see possible feedback on the NAM in E KY. However, prior to that in west TN, it looks reasonable. The rest of 12z should clean-up these differences.

But we take this 10/10 times. With this falling into cold air, the rates are likely to be very good.

Downsloping near the mountains has a tendency to also reduce precip amounts as it is sinking air. Rising air has to release moisture which is why it is good to have lift. Sinking air does the opposite. The winds in this set-up often are out of the east.

Downscoping IMO. The NAM has a warm nose(RGEM is more downslope), but mountain counties up this way tend to downslope big time w/ a slp to the SE. Winds coming down the mountain compress the air and warm it up.

The 12z RGEM also continue the trend of flattening-out the NE side of the storm.

The 12z RGEM for sure cuts snow totals almost forum wide. As I thought, it jogged about a county(county and a half) back northwest with totals. The SE trend w/ the RGEM has stopped.

For those new to tracking winter storms. Trends from this point forward do matter a lot. So the trends we have seen over the past few days: 1. The snow axis has trended southeast as modeling feels high pressure over the top. 2. Precip amounts have gone down. All of that is normal. Also, the cold is now in western Montana and the energy is being sampled properly as it is over the US mainland. Short range models are amped a bit. Trends will matter on both short range and deterministic. The good thing is that it looks like some areas (maybe many) are going to see wintry precip. How much? I suspect the NBM is going to be close. As for the eastern valley? Lots of uncertainty in my mind. Trends at 6z were good. But sometimes what looks like a good pattern is just a ship passing in the night. 12z and 0z trends are going to be really important. (I may stay up late tonight...)If modeling continues to trend SE, then mountain counties are in business. If modeling(not name the NAM) begins to jog back NW....it may be tougher. Honestly, if I was in western North Carolina, this is a big model suite. They have slowly crept into the game.

For TRI, we are likely going to be battling this all the way to "go time." It is plausible that we could end up on the SE side of the snow axis or NW side of the snow axis or right in the middle. Why? The snow axis is more narrow in our part of the state. Any change in trajectory changes things a lot here due to the angle of that axis and the narrowing band.

And it should be noted that some of what we see is "noise" or just wobbles as things focus. The NBM can trend very slowly as it should(it is a blend). It takes longer to turn that "aircraft carrier." I don't use it a ton as it tends to wash out too much, but it is a conservative model which means it will be closer to correct for most places but often miss the higher totaling places.

There is a slight difference there for sure. Take a look at snow totals in Memphis and precip totals at TRI. If you toggle it back and forth(use the mouse function on wxbell and not side-by-side) you can see it very slightly see-saw. The west side lifts just a hair and the east side drops - talking maybe 10-15 miles. Just means that modeling is ever-so-slighlty still trending flatter. I expect it at some point to rebound a bit.

The 3k NAM trend to the SE was even more substantial than the 12k NAM.

NBM update....This is almost a slider. 9z to 12z NBM trends are to lift the SW edge(Memphis) by roughly ten miles and drop the NE edge(TRI) by roughly the same. It is flattening it out.

The NAM looks pretty reasonable through 45, and then almost looks like feedback issues get it at 48. "Reasonable" meaning that it is in line (northwest edge of guidance) of other modeling. Precip pushes further east. It is adjusting (as short range models do) to real time trends. Thus, it moved some eastward. Still not with other modeling, but getting there quickly. Again, I do expect the SE jog to stop at some point and other models(not named NAM) to begin trending NW...maybe that begins later today.

Suppressions concerns me. The NAM "should" be the furtherst NW given its bias. I can't think of another model that would be that far NW. So that is the northern side of the cone. My area has moved from the SE side of precip to the very NW edge on a lot of modeling this morning. My guess is that modeling is now feeling the cold air push this....I also guess this will jog just so much further SE and then begin to trend NW agains IF modeling bias holds to what it used to be...and that is a big IF.. The trend overnight on pretty much all modeling is SE in small or even moderate steps. Maybe the place to be is on the SE side of the snow axis.

The 12z NAM is definitely a smidge SE through 45(and has vastly less precip) than 6z....fairly big move to towards other modeling.

And that is what makes this forum incredible.

Good run by the RGEM and realistic.

The NAM at range........beware to all. It is almost always overly amped. If I could pick a model which is often undependable after hour 48, it is that one.

The wind gusts out of TRI are gonna be crazy I think. We had a gust go thread a couple of hours ago, and we could hear things just breaking. But yeah, Cove scored a huge wind gust. Hoping @fountainguy97gets some video in the obs thread. He was at Camp Creek.

Good run and trends by the Euro.