Carvers Gap

Downscoping IMO. The NAM has a warm nose(RGEM is more downslope), but mountain counties up this way tend to downslope big time w/ a slp to the SE. Winds coming down the mountain compress the air and warm it up.

The 12z RGEM also continue the trend of flattening-out the NE side of the storm.

The 12z RGEM for sure cuts snow totals almost forum wide. As I thought, it jogged about a county(county and a half) back northwest with totals. The SE trend w/ the RGEM has stopped.

For those new to tracking winter storms. Trends from this point forward do matter a lot. So the trends we have seen over the past few days: 1. The snow axis has trended southeast as modeling feels high pressure over the top. 2. Precip amounts have gone down. All of that is normal. Also, the cold is now in western Montana and the energy is being sampled properly as it is over the US mainland. Short range models are amped a bit. Trends will matter on both short range and deterministic. The good thing is that it looks like some areas (maybe many) are going to see wintry precip. How much? I suspect the NBM is going to be close. As for the eastern valley? Lots of uncertainty in my mind. Trends at 6z were good. But sometimes what looks like a good pattern is just a ship passing in the night. 12z and 0z trends are going to be really important. (I may stay up late tonight...)If modeling continues to trend SE, then mountain counties are in business. If modeling(not name the NAM) begins to jog back NW....it may be tougher. Honestly, if I was in western North Carolina, this is a big model suite. They have slowly crept into the game.

For TRI, we are likely going to be battling this all the way to "go time." It is plausible that we could end up on the SE side of the snow axis or NW side of the snow axis or right in the middle. Why? The snow axis is more narrow in our part of the state. Any change in trajectory changes things a lot here due to the angle of that axis and the narrowing band.

And it should be noted that some of what we see is "noise" or just wobbles as things focus. The NBM can trend very slowly as it should(it is a blend). It takes longer to turn that "aircraft carrier." I don't use it a ton as it tends to wash out too much, but it is a conservative model which means it will be closer to correct for most places but often miss the higher totaling places.

There is a slight difference there for sure. Take a look at snow totals in Memphis and precip totals at TRI. If you toggle it back and forth(use the mouse function on wxbell and not side-by-side) you can see it very slightly see-saw. The west side lifts just a hair and the east side drops - talking maybe 10-15 miles. Just means that modeling is ever-so-slighlty still trending flatter. I expect it at some point to rebound a bit.

The 3k NAM trend to the SE was even more substantial than the 12k NAM.

NBM update....This is almost a slider. 9z to 12z NBM trends are to lift the SW edge(Memphis) by roughly ten miles and drop the NE edge(TRI) by roughly the same. It is flattening it out.

The NAM looks pretty reasonable through 45, and then almost looks like feedback issues get it at 48. "Reasonable" meaning that it is in line (northwest edge of guidance) of other modeling. Precip pushes further east. It is adjusting (as short range models do) to real time trends. Thus, it moved some eastward. Still not with other modeling, but getting there quickly. Again, I do expect the SE jog to stop at some point and other models(not named NAM) to begin trending NW...maybe that begins later today.

Suppressions concerns me. The NAM "should" be the furtherst NW given its bias. I can't think of another model that would be that far NW. So that is the northern side of the cone. My area has moved from the SE side of precip to the very NW edge on a lot of modeling this morning. My guess is that modeling is now feeling the cold air push this....I also guess this will jog just so much further SE and then begin to trend NW agains IF modeling bias holds to what it used to be...and that is a big IF.. The trend overnight on pretty much all modeling is SE in small or even moderate steps. Maybe the place to be is on the SE side of the snow axis.

The 12z NAM is definitely a smidge SE through 45(and has vastly less precip) than 6z....fairly big move to towards other modeling.

And that is what makes this forum incredible.

Good run by the RGEM and realistic.

The NAM at range........beware to all. It is almost always overly amped. If I could pick a model which is often undependable after hour 48, it is that one.

The wind gusts out of TRI are gonna be crazy I think. We had a gust go thread a couple of hours ago, and we could hear things just breaking. But yeah, Cove scored a huge wind gust. Hoping @fountainguy97gets some video in the obs thread. He was at Camp Creek.

Good run and trends by the Euro.

I triple checked. The heaviest returns are to the west of us. It hadn't reached us yet. If forms a wave on the backside like the GFS - basically a deformation band.

I just checked on Pivotal. It had just reached this area. Most precip was still west of us.

And it is still going in eastern areas, correct?

RGEM forms a low in the western GOM as well.

The Friday storm is plausible. One thing DT always warns about is a second system which is a shadow of the first feature. It is a weird feedback issue in modeling that allows modeling to repeat the preceding system IF the first system was very strong. However, given the amount of cold in place along with an active STJ/northern stream combo....another system sliding across is very plausible. And honestly, another after that with warm air advection wouldn't surprise me. This pattern is a good one. It will relax from Jan 24-28, and then possibly reload with as potent a pattern or even more so. And I might add, the trailing system has been off-and-on modeling for several days.

Actually, it isn't downslope. Only the mountain counties catch that second slug of moisture.

Downsloping most likely off the Apps. I think those lower totals have probably been there all along, but that lollipop near Knoxville was hiding it. Ask @tnweathernuthow much he likes downsloping.....LOL. .It is probably the one set-up where I can out score him in JC.

Almost prime SLP location. As you noted, it looks to me like the Gfs almost formed the main low in the GOM. If that happens...good things.