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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    With the system flattened, when that trailing edge of the cold front hits the GOM - boom. With it being flatter, it gives time for precip to work into the system. Also, the front halfway stalls. We really want that front to sag slightly southeast of our region and stall....draped from the GOM to Hatteras.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z is on the left and 0z is on the for comparison. Notice that the SLP is much more defined and closer to the coast. Nice looking storm. This is the sequence of the storm as it climbs the EC. 12z was much slower. When a storm gets inside of Hatteras that is a good signal for E TN. Let's see if the trend holds.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z EPS (26-50 snow members...first half looks similar as well). You can see the model spread now w/ two tracks.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is worth your time, especially after the storm. There is another system around the 19th and 20th. Then this baby comes East. Just looking at temps, a very large area of cold gets trapped under that banana high.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That could definitely happen. Front dies and then the SLP is too far to the East. That said, that solution made sense and has some support by other modeling. I am going to cash in some chips on a NW jog. LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I had to go look it up. I read the article on WxBell about it earlier today, but there is the snow map I found....Interestingly, I think it came right on the heels of a cutter that hit Chicago w/ a big snowstorm.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think he has been saying something like Feb 7, 1967....and then maybe some aspects of '96, but he is not calling for a 96 redux by any means.
  8. Carvers Gap
    What a run! The Euro wasn't just satisfied w/ one winter storm and one cold front. The end of that run...wow
  9. Carvers Gap
    If this is correct and it makes sense.... I think the front running cold front(which dies out) will send precip out ahead, the rest of the energy holds back along the GOM as the cold front hits the GOM, and then dynamite. I have been wondering how a strong cold front like that didn't create a storm. The Memphis system a few years back slowed and there was overrunning. Cold air like that is notorious for just oozing southward. Many great storms of the past have their genesis along a strong Arctic boundary that stalls. It is possible/plausible that this could all get squashed, but the energy is gonna have to go somewhere. I don't think it will just burn out over Louisiana. It certainly could go out to sea. But....a strong storm would likely trend Northwest. I feel a bit better about having seen the GFS and CMC try the same thing. Plus, several ensemble members have been well south of the operational. I think we have noted over the past couple of days that the ensemble means were well south of the operational. Now, what we need to see is the ensembles and operationals converge on a track like the Euro just had. Let's hope the operationals are not moving completely to the suppressed ensemble means from the past few days.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The GFS and the CMC had nearly the same set-up...just different iterations. But I will say this, we want the Euro on board when things are complex.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And remember the Euro had a Miller A before going to the anafront. I remember John talking about that, and I hadn't noticed the slp running the coast a few days ago. This almost looks like a classic case of the system being lost days 5-7 (almost disappeared on some modeling overnight), and then reappears. I agree with John as well. In reality, that is a good look. We don't need a ton of precip w/ cold air in the northwest quadrant and likely high rations. However, that would likely fill-in nicely.
  12. Carvers Gap
    JB called it this morning. He said that operationals(euro specifically) were too amped. I have noticed multiple ensemble members which were sliders or even went into the Gulf States as a slider. Not many have turned the corner like the Euro just did, but the solution has been there buried in ensembles. It might be the primary solution. I thought it might just be smoothing. JB noted that high pressure over the top should flatten it out. It looks to me like models are abandoning the anafront, holding energy back after first flattening the front. It almost creates an overrunning event over TN.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That is a big storm track right there, Boone.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I just said the same thing to a friend of mine. Maybe since that is almost a completely different solution, it doesn't have it all nailed down.
  15. Carvers Gap
    That'll do for a trend!
  16. Carvers Gap
    This looks like it could be big......
  17. Carvers Gap
    It appears the Euro has found they storm which it lost a coupled of days ago.
  18. Carvers Gap
    This should for a low east of the Apps.
  19. Carvers Gap
    What is interesting is the Euro is holding back energy now behind the initial front near the GOM.
  20. Carvers Gap
    By 129, almost all of TN has light snow...system is flat as a pancake. Much different solution and not like the UKMET at all.
  21. Carvers Gap
    At 117, it is definitely flatter w/ much more hp over the top.
  22. Carvers Gap
    At 105, the Euro looks flatter. More cold is pressing.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think the UKMET is way, way overdone. Bias by it is in play.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I used to think those were erroneous lollipops, but Knox Co has to have some sort of micro-confluence there. Tellico had a great illustration overnight. On more than one occasion, Knoxville has outperformed areas to the north. I do think the front gets sheered by the time it gets to TRI as precipitation tries to get over the Apps. But that alley to the west of Knoxville seems to let a lot of precip in....I see that w/ summer thunderstorms as well. It seems if one area can dodge the Plateau rain shadow, it is Knoxville. It is also possible that there is some smoothing from the Smokies which affects that. We often have way to much digital snow here as modeling will often smooth snow amounts too much.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yep, sure does/did. It comes out flatter, and then almost pops what I would call a lee side low which hugs the Apps.
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