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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    At 102, the anafront made into E TN. Now, let's see where all of that energy along the GOM goes.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Out to 96 on the 12z GFS, this run is flatter yet again. Energy is held back over SE TX.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I was digging through slp placement this morning...both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro move that coastal a little more off shore. And it doesn't really hurt the second system. I also wouldn't want to be in Memphis making this forecast. The 0z GEPS is all-in for Memphis, but the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are less enthused when one looks at individual members. The GEFS/EPS lack a clear cluster of solutions. Plus, the CMC/GEPS were the slowest to catch the solution in the first place - almost seems like they are a couple of days behind. Now,(and I am sure you have seen this in the past as well) waiting on that second slug of moisture to come up the valley is not without peril. I have found that to be an error w/ some winter storms or it slides too far eastward and goes through western NC. I don't have a clear feel for this yet. I tend to think it is some sort of strung-out anafront which stalls, and we get a pulse(s) along it. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the second piece of energy be stronger or even be the main storm - might be a little late for that trend, but worth watching. I would also expect that the system on the EC(first wave) to trend closer to the coast if it is the main system as it will wrap up more. I think modeling is sniffing out a big coastal, but just can't figure out which piece of energy to accentuate....or it could just be a moderate over-running event.
  4. Carvers Gap
    This is why I waited until this morning to look at modeling. I knew 0z was gonna be a mess. A dying wave which is followed by a second piece of energy is realistic as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modeling consolidate even more around that second piece of energy like the GFS had at 6z. When a strong cold front hits the GOM - dynamite. Good trends for all of the forum really.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I am gonna wait until the morning to check modeling as I don't think it is worked out yet. Might take to 12z to find some semblance of where this is heading. Reel in a good pattern, folks! FWIW, the GEFS ext also looks stellar.
  6. Carvers Gap
    But today wasn't a complete loss.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Is that why it looked to lose the system? In other words, it just wasn't there yet as in it slowed down. I thought it went poof.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Wow. Truly. That is a Hall of Fame afternoon disco.
  9. Carvers Gap
    With the system flattened, when that trailing edge of the cold front hits the GOM - boom. With it being flatter, it gives time for precip to work into the system. Also, the front halfway stalls. We really want that front to sag slightly southeast of our region and stall....draped from the GOM to Hatteras.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z is on the left and 0z is on the for comparison. Notice that the SLP is much more defined and closer to the coast. Nice looking storm. This is the sequence of the storm as it climbs the EC. 12z was much slower. When a storm gets inside of Hatteras that is a good signal for E TN. Let's see if the trend holds.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z EPS (26-50 snow members...first half looks similar as well). You can see the model spread now w/ two tracks.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is worth your time, especially after the storm. There is another system around the 19th and 20th. Then this baby comes East. Just looking at temps, a very large area of cold gets trapped under that banana high.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That could definitely happen. Front dies and then the SLP is too far to the East. That said, that solution made sense and has some support by other modeling. I am going to cash in some chips on a NW jog. LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I had to go look it up. I read the article on WxBell about it earlier today, but there is the snow map I found....Interestingly, I think it came right on the heels of a cutter that hit Chicago w/ a big snowstorm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I think he has been saying something like Feb 7, 1967....and then maybe some aspects of '96, but he is not calling for a 96 redux by any means.
  16. Carvers Gap
    What a run! The Euro wasn't just satisfied w/ one winter storm and one cold front. The end of that run...wow
  17. Carvers Gap
    If this is correct and it makes sense.... I think the front running cold front(which dies out) will send precip out ahead, the rest of the energy holds back along the GOM as the cold front hits the GOM, and then dynamite. I have been wondering how a strong cold front like that didn't create a storm. The Memphis system a few years back slowed and there was overrunning. Cold air like that is notorious for just oozing southward. Many great storms of the past have their genesis along a strong Arctic boundary that stalls. It is possible/plausible that this could all get squashed, but the energy is gonna have to go somewhere. I don't think it will just burn out over Louisiana. It certainly could go out to sea. But....a strong storm would likely trend Northwest. I feel a bit better about having seen the GFS and CMC try the same thing. Plus, several ensemble members have been well south of the operational. I think we have noted over the past couple of days that the ensemble means were well south of the operational. Now, what we need to see is the ensembles and operationals converge on a track like the Euro just had. Let's hope the operationals are not moving completely to the suppressed ensemble means from the past few days.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The GFS and the CMC had nearly the same set-up...just different iterations. But I will say this, we want the Euro on board when things are complex.
  19. Carvers Gap
    And remember the Euro had a Miller A before going to the anafront. I remember John talking about that, and I hadn't noticed the slp running the coast a few days ago. This almost looks like a classic case of the system being lost days 5-7 (almost disappeared on some modeling overnight), and then reappears. I agree with John as well. In reality, that is a good look. We don't need a ton of precip w/ cold air in the northwest quadrant and likely high rations. However, that would likely fill-in nicely.
  20. Carvers Gap
    JB called it this morning. He said that operationals(euro specifically) were too amped. I have noticed multiple ensemble members which were sliders or even went into the Gulf States as a slider. Not many have turned the corner like the Euro just did, but the solution has been there buried in ensembles. It might be the primary solution. I thought it might just be smoothing. JB noted that high pressure over the top should flatten it out. It looks to me like models are abandoning the anafront, holding energy back after first flattening the front. It almost creates an overrunning event over TN.
  21. Carvers Gap
    That is a big storm track right there, Boone.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I just said the same thing to a friend of mine. Maybe since that is almost a completely different solution, it doesn't have it all nailed down.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That'll do for a trend!
  24. Carvers Gap
    This looks like it could be big......
  25. Carvers Gap
    It appears the Euro has found they storm which it lost a coupled of days ago.
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