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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    To tag along to a post in the main thread, and for when we go back to look at these from a historical perspective. The Little Pigeon in Gatlinburg is just about out of its banks. Sirens were sounded.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The EPS (control) is much more aggressive than the ensemble. Normally, they looks super similar at this range. The MSLP mean and precip is also more aggressive than 0z. This might be a case where the operational is much weaker than the ensemble.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, both the Euro and CMC leave the door wide open for another system to follow 3-4 days later.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think it was '94(John remembers this winter much better than I do)...it was just nastiness. We had ice and snow. The interstates were snarled as it stayed cold long after the storm. I had water in my apartment as the rooftops were damming water behind ice. I remember chipping ice from my car. I shattered, and I thought is was my rear window breaking out. Just a brutal pattern. This may have a lot of that in it.
  5. Carvers Gap
    We noted yesterday that modeling is infamous for losing storms in the day 5-7 range, and them sometimes getting them back. I suspect this is about to be a Miller A and we are seeing some sort of transition from an anafront to a coastal. Models kind of have one foot in one camp and one foot in the other. But yeah, a long way to go.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I could be wrong, but that looks like an error. We normally get ice if the cold is already in place and settled into the valley. Maybe the lower level cold advances that quickly, but I doubt it. '94 kind of had that happen in Knoxville though. I don't remember the sequence. It was a sloppy mess. The problem with tracking these so far out, there are just wild swings with almost every run.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro was MUCH warmer....lost a lot of the cold air - washed out. I don't know if that is because we have a SLP trying to back the flow along the coast. However, the Euro was slower almost right off the bat. But the trend all winter has been slower and weaker for many storms. Tricky to get a forecast from that trend w/ systems.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Maybe. LOL. The GFS and Euro both weakened the system, but the GEFS and GEPS beefed up. Let's see what the EPS does. Probably still an ensemble driven forecast at this range.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am saying that is why the trough goes in the West so often despite decent teleconnections at high latitude. I though that was the question.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Well, to clarify....it is an ice storm for E TN. That isn't exactly a nothing burger. Sorry.
  11. Carvers Gap
    So the Euro is a mess as was the GFS. Models are trying to sort out blocking over the top, potential for a coastal low to pop, and strength of the front. Outside of NW TN, that is just a cold front passage. That run was a nothing-burger for most. The stronger hp is almost shunting the system eastward. I would look for that front to be stronger as we get closer to the event.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That is bad, man!
  13. Carvers Gap
    At 144, HP is stronger over the top.
  14. Carvers Gap
    This "should" be a little more suppressed, but similar to 0z.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Euro is rolling. I am not sure what slower and slightly more northerly is going to get us regarding the energy coming onshore in northern California at 111...but we are about to find out.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles are simply a blend, kind of like a music ensemble group made up of a French horn, trombone, baritone, flute, bass, violin, and cello for example. When I post an ensemble mean, it is several perturbed members (they tweek the 12z run multiple times, and then run the program) averaged together. Above, I posted the individual members of the snow ensemble. Sometimes the mean can be skewed by one huge, outlier run or there could be multiple perturbed runs which support the mean. Above, there are several runs that support the original operational(or deterministic run. That likely means the deterministic is more credible if the ensemble supports it at this range. The deterministic runs are the GFS and CMC...they have one shot to get it right. The GEFS and GEPTS are compiled of multiple perturbed runs....At longer ranges say outside of 4-5 days, the ensembles are often better. Inside of day3-4, we start to rely more on the deterministic runs. This is important, at day 5, the deterministic is for all intents and purposes just one of the individual ensemble members.
  17. Carvers Gap
    -PDO
  18. Carvers Gap
    Panels from ensembles....they have it.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS and GEFS ensembles (especially the GEPS) have beefier snow means. Good sign.
  20. Carvers Gap
    We've run the gauntlet in my house since fall....paraflu, croup, rona, standard cold, and rebound rona. I think we have managed to dodge RSV. Feel better! If it snows next week, you should be good by then!!!!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles have it now as a strong anafront. The GEFS has several SLPs which run the coast, but the idea is not consolidated. The GEPS has multiple SLPs(all over the place) ranging from cutters through mid-state to coastals, to inland runners, to Apps runners. Just looking at that, I think we are going to quite possibly see some version of a mid-state cutter to a coastal SLP - the window is that big. For now, it is just an anafront w/ something trying to form along the front.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I haven't even looked at ground temps. Probably a flash freeze as the front is inbound. Christmas '20 was pretty meh, and it roared through. This reminds me a lot of that anafront. That said, I don't think the Euro is out of the question either. Let's see how that trends. If it is 17" of snow...ground temps won't likely matter. And for that matter if anyone gets that much, things are going to be shut down for days in those areas.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Maybe more like the front slows, and an slp forms along it. '93 would be an extreme example. '96 maybe also. As John noted, modeling has sped up some. We can also catch a lee side low which helps E TN sometimes. That isn't the gospel on my part, but that is how I would envision it.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the CMC/GFS combo...both are popping slp near Hatteras. I am not sure that will help us or not. However, if modeling begins to consolidate (think Euro), then we could be looking at a major event. As of now, I lean suppression. If the Euro goes big again....I may rethink. The elements are there for a big storm so far at 12z - cold air roaring in, slp trying to form on the front, blocking. Generally, a blend of the GFS and Euro would be my recommendation right now...but let's see what ensembles show. If we are trending towards a larger storm, some big dogs will show up on individuals members.
  25. Carvers Gap
    At this point, I would be very surprised if the entire forum area gets blanked - not shocked, but very surprised. The ICON has a different iteration, but still hits some areas. The GFS is weaker. I would suspect the Euro comes in torqued.
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