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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Let me edit my last comment....Chattanooga is oddly in the best place to score 1-2" of snow on that run.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The Euro whiffs on the entire state. LOL
  3. Carvers Gap
    So we have: UK/CMC: Cranked Euro: OTS GFS: in the middle of the others...... Choose your own adventure......
  4. Carvers Gap
    Lived up to its name. Whew.
  5. Carvers Gap
    OTS.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Looks suppressed on pressure maps at 117. I can't see the surface maps yet. High pressure quickly has built in over the top.
  7. Carvers Gap
    At 96, it has room to come north...slightly less hp over the top.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Should be a hair flatter at 90....
  9. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro is rolling...
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the January thread. Models have had this cold front since December 31st. That is just impressive.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The mountains have snow on them right now. This may be a deal where the mountains have snow from Monday through the rest of winter. Super happy for the ski slopes. If they don't get snow, they can sure make it in bunches.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I just posted in the pattern thread for you. Pretty epic....yardstick for John's backyard.
  13. Carvers Gap
    @weathertree4u2 , here you go. Fun run. 3 storms.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z UKMET has come well south of 0z. Trends on operationals matter at this stage.
  15. Carvers Gap
    As Canada builds cold on the GFS and we get through the "warm phases" of the MJO....when the MJO hits phase 7 later this month, that could come south. Legit winter pattern showing up on modeling, even after next week.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC(know for its sometimes cold bias) sends the freezing line into the southern Everglades w/ single digits in the Panhandle. This is like 1-2 cold shots after next Monday.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And looking down the line, snow showers would persist for days....and likely more storms after. Loaded pattern...and we haven't been able to say that in a long time.
  18. Carvers Gap
    It would shut down this area, but also potentially many of the major cities along the East Coast. Power grid would be stretched THIN. Between downed lines due to ice on the SE edge and the prolonged cold from Texas to the major cities....could get rough.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I can find us a way. LOL. Run that SLP from New Orleans to Norfolk. Word on the street is that the AI model has that track - but it is always wrong! LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Well, sledding will be fast. LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Here is what makes the most sense about the Canadian....the SLP forms along the front and rides it up the coast. The scenario where the SLP is 200mi off Charleston, SC, and the wave forms so far behind the front doesn't make as much sense. What does make sense is for a Miller A, inland runner, or even Apps runner to get lit on the Gulf Coast and come northeast. In that regard, the Canadian makes a lot of sense....I just think it will be closer to the coast.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Flatter is likely. If we can get a low from just off the coast and to just inside the coast, that would be a score. I don't think the Canadian is on the same page right now. The ICON is the 12z suite scenario that we want to avoid.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The CMC is a far west outlier. It is literally like 1-2 days behind trends of other modeling, but did manage an inland runner. Jax, great post. The energy that is catching up with this cold front is not being modeled well.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Well, that is a straight up and amped Miller A on the Canadian. Wow. That is the trend. Drop the energy SE, and then let it rip.
  25. Carvers Gap
    DEFINITE jog south and east w/ the snow axis. edit: regarding the 12z GFS
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