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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 18z NAM found some juice!
  2. Carvers Gap
    In the eastern valley, we don't want the fetch of moisture too far to the East when in the Gulf States. We have all seen how that works out. Having that fetch a little more to the southwest is not a bad thing w/ that set-up on the HRRR.
  3. Carvers Gap
    We take this 10/10 times. Stalled front w/ overrunning precip from the SW. Yes, E TN does warm, but probably in response to precip flooding into the eastern valley. The cold to the northwest keeps is frozen. In reality, it would be tough for downsloping to win w/ this setup. The lift against the Apps would cancel it out. I should note...most great winter storms have mixing issues even in places which get the most snow.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Sign me up for that run. It looked good. That is an overrunning event. It stalls the front.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Looks like feedback. But....that run is loaded for eastern areas if extrapolated IMHO. The gravy train was just getting started here.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z NBM looks about right to me. New run is on the left. One last thing I will be watching on models is if they beef-up their qpf as El Nino systems are often under modeled. Looks super similar to the HRRR. But we need the Euro on board. If that is right, there will be some spots w/ 10+" of snow.
  7. Carvers Gap
    OK, let's get back to work. 21-4 run to end the game, and a TN win. The SE trend stopped in Athens! Time to Knecht the cold with the precip and get some snow!!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    And it will depend on where one lives as to what trend they want. LOL. I do want the SE trend to stop, but I don't want much of a NW trend for MBY selfishly.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Nina storm tracks are cutters west of where an inland runner would be. There are two storm tracks. Primary is just to the west of the Apps or the Apps. Secondary can be a slider. The Mid Atlantic hates Nina climatology. Weak Ninas can be decent as we pick-up the slider track. During the past three winters, the track through the eastern valley has been a primary track which is why I mention it - if that makes sense.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I will be interested in the 15z NBM. If it holds the snow axis in the same place, that is a decent sign the SE trend has stopped.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It is a likely problem, and I believe this is why we are seeing SE jogs this winter. It is like all of the model trends that we knew for 15 years have been reversed. Modeling has been well northwest of where it should have been - almost like a severe Nina bias. It can even be seen in LR modeling.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I don't think there is a pro one way or the other. The SREF looks like the 12:00PM NBM which I mentioned just a minute a go...SE jogged stopped on it. But I believe 12z doesn't get ingest until 3:00PM. I also mentioned this should possibly trend back NW.
  13. Carvers Gap
    What does it show? I think a lot of us are also watching some really bad basketball right now which doesn't help. LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The NBM has halted the SE jog FWIW. I don't know if it has the latest runs ingested. It might not until 3:00PM.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yes.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Nino climatology favors a more coastal track. I sometimes wonder if these models have had three years of Nina tendencies plugged into their programming.....Nino climatology is a bias east, but modeling refused for days to see that. I would not be surprised to see the bullseye end-up being western North Carolina. The Piedmont isn't out of it.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I have said for the better part of a week that suppression is the concern. That is a big time arctic air mass. It was gonna force this south. I have seen it dozens of times. That said, I do suspect this starts trend northwest during the next couple of runs. We saw that a little but at 12z on some modeling.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Might be time to get those two SE counties in TN...included in the WSW.
  19. Carvers Gap
    GFS and CMC at 12z build a glacier over the forum area.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. I thought the same. Winch chills in my area are 18-23F....pretty brutal. I don't know that it will feel likes the 40s at any point.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Two random things which I thought about: 1. Climatology track is winning out...so far 2. The jet max might be playing a part in the eastern valley....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting comparison between the RGEM and NAM at 12z. For me, I prefer the RGEM beginning at 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow - meaning it is about in range where I trust it but not quite yet. That said, modeling isn't too far off. You can see possible feedback on the NAM in E KY. However, prior to that in west TN, it looks reasonable. The rest of 12z should clean-up these differences.
  23. Carvers Gap
  24. Carvers Gap
    But we take this 10/10 times. With this falling into cold air, the rates are likely to be very good.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Downsloping near the mountains has a tendency to also reduce precip amounts as it is sinking air. Rising air has to release moisture which is why it is good to have lift. Sinking air does the opposite. The winds in this set-up often are out of the east.
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