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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Man, thank you for the update. You all are definitely in my prayers. Glad to have you here!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, I was in a hurry earlier. My initial response probably didn’t make sense. I was re-asking the question as in, “So what about the upcoming cutters?” And not, “Cutters? What cutters?” Cosgrove has noted that during January the winter pattern will often reload. That is probably part of it - I hope. That standing wave could stay there the rest of winter, but it “should” depart after 5-7 days. And yes, the wave is bottling up the pattern IMHO.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Speaking of cutters. They are normal. Otherwise, it would rarely rain in the Plains or the Midwest. It is nature’s way of spreading around the wealth. I do think we get a bit of a standing wave which forces several storms to cut. That standing wave bottles up the cold for a short time. Not to sound like a broken record, it has been on long wave ext modeling for some time. As for Baja, ensembles stay out of there. I am about 50/50 as to whether operationals are experiencing feedback or are correct. If pressed, I would say the cold stays in the front range and comes eastward on the heels of one or two cutter....slightly modified. There is also a chance this comes eastward with little modification if the cold airmass drops into the plains and not the front range.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I understand that. I was re-asking your question and then answering it.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Whew. The 12z EPS(especially the control) is crazy cold. The Euro operational was on the verge of releasing the hounds. The control pretty much did it.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that 500 maps from run to run on the GEFS are absolute bedlam. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS 5 day map centered on Jan 15-20. It isn't too dissimilar to the the GEPS. If the STJ remains active, that is a really good look.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Canadian OP at long range. Only because I like extremes(GFS is further west but eventually gets most of it well into the Atlantic....just later). Now, tell me what that looks like(recent events)? For the record, that is a -56F departure from norm during what is traditionally the coldest week of the year for a lot of NA.
  9. Carvers Gap
    This is a 5day mean. The other thing...when I see this on an ensemble(GEFS looks very similar....that run isn' finished yet), this has massive overrunning potential. With an active sub tropical jet, this looks like a set-up for a multi day even IF the cold isn't too strong. If it is too strong, then we get snow in New Orleans.
  10. Carvers Gap
    And on the CMC, there is snow on the 10th, 13th, and 15th. The GFS has it on the 10th and 20th. So, this isn't exactly a snowless timeframe without at least some minor chances - dusting or little more.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Precip is normal to above for that time frame w/ the exception of far NW TN for Jan. That means a likely active STJ w/ seasonal temps at our best time of the year.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And speaking of LR modeling.....
  13. Carvers Gap
    The main bust(speaking of the long wave pattern) by ext LR modeling this winter was being off by one week with the cool down during December. Otherwise, it has been pretty decent. And it looks decent for late Jan and Feb. I am not ruling out mischief well before that.
  14. Carvers Gap
    it is a pain in the neck. I can at least say that I wasn't alive for 114 of those years.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And again, the Jan 11-14 time frame has been lit as a warm week. And again, really the Jan 11-25 timeframe has always been pretty warm looking....having a cold shot in the middle of MJO warm phases is pretty much a bonus. The MJO "should" be prime by the end of January again.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z GFS and CMC have decent looks on them. Need to reel those in, but not a terrible progression.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And welcome to El Nino......this is pretty much how it works. Cold, dreary, rainy, cloudy...then some a brief warm-up....then colder, drearier, rainer, cloudier....wash, rinse, repeat. The active storm track is our ally with this pattern. Model mayhem is well under way.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that cold air still lurks after the Jan11-14 warm-up. The duration and intensity of that cold shot are still TBD, but it should feel like winter at the very least. With an active STJ(subtropical jet), it is highly unlikely that we know how those systems will interact with the cold. It does look like there be another warm-up(likely due to the MJO in 5-6) between say Jan 19-28th). Then it gets cold again. But, again, we need to see how the NAO sets up around the 11th. Until it is in place, modeling accuracy very likely is going to suffer. Modeling is renown for not handling NAO patterns well. Add in the crappy Pacific pattern on the horizon....balancing the two will be tough.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Does anyone have the PDO number for December?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Cutters? I think that is a response to a temporary southeast ridge and/or standing wave. We haven't had many cutters at all this season as evidenced by the rainfall deficits in middle and western forum areas. The main storm track is the low road at the moment...and that will likely change for the medium range. There are places in the West and Plains with no snow on the ground at all. That said, the MJO influence on future weather is real. Probably the better question IMO is why things are cutting in the medium range? It is the influence of the MJO in my opinion The timeframe from Jan11-14 has almost universally supposed to have been warm. Really, Jan11-25 was supposed to be warm until modeling slipped a cold shot in round Jan15-18ish. MJO 4-6 will by default put the trough in the West unless the NAO can counter it which it might well do. Cosgrove has an interesting article this morning on storms which cut. Basically, with so much projected cold air in place in Canada(remember, our source regions are changing to extremely cold)....that cutter could pull down the mother load which personally I don't want! LOL. Honestly, middle and western areas of our forum need some rain, so cutters are good with me. The main worry w/ the MJO is a stall in phase 6 later this month....if that happens, winter is up for many. But that is still a ways out there, and I think it unlikely. The good thing about cutters is they are going to put down lots of snow to our northwest in the Plains. Of note, TRI is below normal for temps so far for the month of January. That is no surprise. As long as the MJO doesn't stall in 6(and it could), it will likely rotate into colder phases during the last week of January. The cold that we have now is a result of an MJO rotation though colder phases. The difference next time is that the source regions for the cold likely won't be Pacific maritime air. The signal for winter has generally been the second half of winter. We just need the MJO to rotate quickly through warm phases and then out.... Until then, there is cold on the map. And as a reminder, modeling is going to be all over the place. Of note, the MJO doesn't have to be warm during 4-5-6....that is not a set-in-stone rule. Something to watch.
  21. Carvers Gap
    CPC analogs d6-10: 19590102 19630111 19960129 19850129 19781227 19811227 19820105 19680105 19731230 19620114 d8-14 19800126 19681229 19700104 19781229 19590102 19680108 19690110 19940107 19960130 19590117
  22. Carvers Gap
    The NAO that is projected to fire is massive.....we may not necessarily want a big ridge out West. It might snow in Cuba if there was a double block. But looking at the Euro control. We fight off the MJO w/ the NAO, and then the Pac kicks into gear in February. We have seen these looks on models many times for our area...been a while since it has materialized. But....the signal is on modeling right now for a significant cold outbreak from Jan15 to the end of Feb in multiple waves. It fits climatology. The MJO is the thorn, and I look over my shoulder like a TN coach leading at halftime in Tuscaloosa.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS says that everyone east of the Rockies better get their plumber on speed dial.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I don't think I want any part of the 18z GFS. .
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS would freeze rivers in NE TN. 1053 HP now on that run.
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