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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Fighting the SER on the CMC and GFS at 12z. The MJO is FUNKY this morning. It is highly likely going to loop back to the colder phases before progressing quickly through the warmer phases. We are still about nine days out from this......ensembles are the way to go. The operationals are simply one of about 25-50 individual members at this range. Like I said, wild ride. Models will change some(or a lot) as new data is added.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And then look at this 30 day map from the Euro ext, and look at the Feb 69' map from above.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19680109 19800127 19690110 19681230 20040104 19700109 19590104 19590117 19630130 19690115 Any time I see an analog triple weighted, I get curious. I am NOT predicting this here, but merely showing you what I found. And there it is....a month where the NAO trumped a bad Pacific. So then I looked in my weather links folder and found this: https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Snow 1969.pdf And then I found this old post by Foothills: And this: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar And this: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/100-hour-snowstorm-february-1969 And this: https://www.webberweather.com/1960s-winter-storms-nc.html
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is sharply colder. Is it right? No idea. It simply accentuated the Greenland block instead of the Alaskan block. For me, this is just a variation of the same idea. It will probably be one of several as new data tweaks model output each day.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Definitely eastward on the run so far. I am out to 252 on Tropical Tidbits.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I hate to use the word "caved" at the range, because I have no idea what reality is going to be. However, the 18z GFS looks very similar out to the 216hour run of the 12z EPS, GEFS, GEPS.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Amazingly, we had one of the longest streaks of below freezing(maybe broke the streak at TRI) during the late 2010s. But yeah, at our latitude (even during the colder winters of the 70s and 80s, lower elevations tend to come up for air) a good window here might be 5-7 days. A really good window might be 7-10 days. An exceptional window would be 10-14 days. To me, this looks like a two-for. We get a cold shot Jan 13-20. Then, we warm-up. Then, in February we do it all again. The actual window for snow might be something like the 15th-20th. But that is speculation on my part. Some of those cold shots could be suppression city. We need cold, but we don't need it to be cold in Tampa.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, there is too much of a good thing...and we are flirting with that in the LR. It is pretty rare to see ensembles this cold. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SE edge pulled back some....but really the 12z suite cooled off a bunch from an ensemble perspective.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Man, thank you for the update. You all are definitely in my prayers. Glad to have you here!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, I was in a hurry earlier. My initial response probably didn’t make sense. I was re-asking the question as in, “So what about the upcoming cutters?” And not, “Cutters? What cutters?” Cosgrove has noted that during January the winter pattern will often reload. That is probably part of it - I hope. That standing wave could stay there the rest of winter, but it “should” depart after 5-7 days. And yes, the wave is bottling up the pattern IMHO.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Speaking of cutters. They are normal. Otherwise, it would rarely rain in the Plains or the Midwest. It is nature’s way of spreading around the wealth. I do think we get a bit of a standing wave which forces several storms to cut. That standing wave bottles up the cold for a short time. Not to sound like a broken record, it has been on long wave ext modeling for some time. As for Baja, ensembles stay out of there. I am about 50/50 as to whether operationals are experiencing feedback or are correct. If pressed, I would say the cold stays in the front range and comes eastward on the heels of one or two cutter....slightly modified. There is also a chance this comes eastward with little modification if the cold airmass drops into the plains and not the front range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I understand that. I was re-asking your question and then answering it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Whew. The 12z EPS(especially the control) is crazy cold. The Euro operational was on the verge of releasing the hounds. The control pretty much did it.
  14. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that 500 maps from run to run on the GEFS are absolute bedlam. LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS 5 day map centered on Jan 15-20. It isn't too dissimilar to the the GEPS. If the STJ remains active, that is a really good look.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Canadian OP at long range. Only because I like extremes(GFS is further west but eventually gets most of it well into the Atlantic....just later). Now, tell me what that looks like(recent events)? For the record, that is a -56F departure from norm during what is traditionally the coldest week of the year for a lot of NA.
  17. Carvers Gap
    This is a 5day mean. The other thing...when I see this on an ensemble(GEFS looks very similar....that run isn' finished yet), this has massive overrunning potential. With an active sub tropical jet, this looks like a set-up for a multi day even IF the cold isn't too strong. If it is too strong, then we get snow in New Orleans.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And on the CMC, there is snow on the 10th, 13th, and 15th. The GFS has it on the 10th and 20th. So, this isn't exactly a snowless timeframe without at least some minor chances - dusting or little more.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Precip is normal to above for that time frame w/ the exception of far NW TN for Jan. That means a likely active STJ w/ seasonal temps at our best time of the year.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And speaking of LR modeling.....
  21. Carvers Gap
    The main bust(speaking of the long wave pattern) by ext LR modeling this winter was being off by one week with the cool down during December. Otherwise, it has been pretty decent. And it looks decent for late Jan and Feb. I am not ruling out mischief well before that.
  22. Carvers Gap
    it is a pain in the neck. I can at least say that I wasn't alive for 114 of those years.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And again, the Jan 11-14 time frame has been lit as a warm week. And again, really the Jan 11-25 timeframe has always been pretty warm looking....having a cold shot in the middle of MJO warm phases is pretty much a bonus. The MJO "should" be prime by the end of January again.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z GFS and CMC have decent looks on them. Need to reel those in, but not a terrible progression.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And welcome to El Nino......this is pretty much how it works. Cold, dreary, rainy, cloudy...then some a brief warm-up....then colder, drearier, rainer, cloudier....wash, rinse, repeat. The active storm track is our ally with this pattern. Model mayhem is well under way.
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