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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    It might get to SE TN. It would be a reach on my part, but there is still plenty of time for that.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 12z ICON has it as well for next weekend. You know, I am not sleeping on the Thursday system. The ICON has a mix for SE areas of the forum if I cam reading the green/blue combo correctly. A slight tic northwest, and those areas could score.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Like sands through the hourglass....
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z Suite.... E TN / Plateau Scorecard CMC -> ice GFS -> snow
  5. Carvers Gap
    Man..
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 0z and 6z GEFS lose the NAO quite quickly after the 10th. Other modeling doesn't have that. With the MJO going to crap, we are going to need the NAO. It is a great example of what can happen if we don't get help from the Atlantic during that time frame. IMHO, it breaks it down too quickly which is not uncommon. But, we shall see. LR modeling has had the 15th-25th as a warm time frame for several weeks. Only recently, have global ensembles cooled that timeframe off.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That would be a major score for the GEFS by the way as it has no support from the CFSv2 or other global ensembles. It wouldn't be without precedent, but it is on an island for now. It is completely missing the post Jan10 cold shot, which is a big difference.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I do like what Bob Chill noted in the MA forum, chasing snow in December is pretty much futile at lower elevations and typically has been with the exception of the anomalous decade of the 2010s. He noted that his winter runs a pretty similar duration, just that it is typically Jan-March now. In other words, winter tracking begins now. Anything during December is a bonus. As for the GEFS, it is all over the place in the long range. I am not worried about it at the moment. I just wanted to make that note.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS ensemble has flipped quite warm in the medium and long range....big break from the 0z run. Just a heads up. And yes, that model takes the high amplitude, tour of the MJO warm phases....and absolutely crawls. So, we are back to that with that model. The GEPS/EPS combo is still very cold and very different at the surface and at 500. Bit of a model war brewing, and it will decide the fate of winter. I have heard that modeling really doesn't take into account the MJO during d10-15, but gives it more weight inside of d10. That might not be correct information, but maybe I read it in the MA forum. If so, that makes sense why it is finally correcting to its own MJO. Its operational has been leading the way for days.
  10. Carvers Gap
    It looks like all global ensembles take some energy into central TN, and have a subsequent energy handoff. I hope this is a case where operationals are leading the way.
  11. Carvers Gap
    88-89 was probably the first winter when I knew that winter was changing, and summer for that matter as well. Having grown-up during the 70s and 80s, 88-89 was ok for a winter...but the very late start(flirted with a non winter for a time) and following very warm January were pretty big red flags in hindsight, and red flags even then. I remember asking my dad if winter had changed. Again, as I noted in my response to John, I would gladly take that winter today. Then, it was pretty meh. But I originally misread the analog as 89-90. At the time, the 88-89 winter also followed a wicked hot stretch of summer at TRI. So, even to the modest weather follower, things were "off" that year. I remember, up until recently, that summer as being the hottest summer of my life. It wasn't the averages that were off, but the multiple 4-5 day stretches of 95-101F temps that were rough.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Still a lot to work out. If we get any type of handoff, that is probably not good for most of the valley. That said, NW TN could do well w/ the GFS version. The GFS is holding steadfast to a cutter. The other two models trended to clean pass(little to no energy transfer).
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro and CMC, as others have noted, are a clean pass for next weekend. JB noted last night that he had doubts as to weather that system could cut northward(like the GFS is still doing). Just going to have to watch the trend. We also don't want it trending OTS. That is a good look for folks above 2,000' on the Euro and icy for a lot of folks on the CMC.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Ah, edit, to clarify...I was talking about Dec 89, Jan 90, Dec 90. I misread the analog package. December '89 was ~ 9.0 w/ 1" of snow, and then winter went poof. Jan and Feb of '90 were both +5.0 roughly. It was terrible in Knoxville. Brutally old start and probably the second biggest miss of a winter storm in my lifetime. You all did well on the Plateau...Knoxville not so much. The warm-up after the cold shot was incredible. Up to that point in my life, I didn't know winter could end that early. The bigger concern with that analog showing up for late December and January...the flip warm right about then(or shortly thereafter) was pretty staggering. That is the main reason I don't like to see it. I don't like that winter though. It reminded me a lot of last winter. Now, to the actual analog. LOL. I was in Kingsport for 88-89. It was pretty meh, not terrible and not great....but would gladly take it nowadays. Kingsport was maybe roughly -1 for December but +5 for January. Yes, February did have 11" of snow, but that was pretty much it for the winter....and well BN(speaking of snow) for the winter if I remember correctly for the time. Interesting to see a very warm January analog show-up in the analog package. But that analog might be there for what would came next....warm flipping to cold. 88-89 would be the last good winter until 92-93.....and it wasn't overly good compared to recent past winters of the time(off the top of my head). But it was a late starter which this current one could be....if it starts.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And these are the changes which are starting to show up on the GEFS ext(which was terrible last night). Look at the changes. Still a LONG WAY to go, but nice to see ensembles have continuity this far out. New run is on the left. EPO ridge, NAO ridge, and likely the PV trapped(use some imagination on that last one)........
  16. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, Jan '64 made it on the analog list. We had used that analog this fall. It was one of the extreme drought Nino Sept-Oct analogs which showed up. Kind of cool that it has shown up in the winter analog list for part of January.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Day 6-10 analogs: 19881226 19890107 19511231 19620112 19680101 19510101 19720102 19640108 20070111 19701222 Day 8-14 analogs: 19680103 19710107 19760103 19960128 20080116 19590101 19811225 19630111 20020117 19620112 Some decent analogs there. BUT, I don't like seeing 88-89 analogs. Easily, that is my least favorite winter. The GEFS ext does provide credence this evening for those analogs. They are very warm after the 20th or so....hold up. They are still running, and have blinked. I thought they were going to do what they did last night, and lock the ridge over the East. They don't. They go to the GEPS/EPS look w/ slightly more ridging between the cold shots. I do like the 1996 analog in the d8-14 group. I think 2008 wasn't bad either.
  18. Carvers Gap
    It may or may not come to pass, but the model 12z suite across the board for Jan10-15. The GEFS is simply "warmer" but still very cold. Modeling has had this timeframe picked-out for a long time. So, it isn't overly surprising. I would guess there will be some twists and turns along the way, but that is impressive. Honestly, this is what hit Europe a few weeks back it looks like.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This has some 09-10 in it. It is almost a pay me now or pay me later type of pattern. If the system cuts, more cold is coming down. I do wonder if the strong cutter next weekend is what provides the mechanism for this. In other words, modeling is now leaning towards a cutter next weekend, but that in turn, makes it colder during weeks 2-3.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Modeling isn't too far off. I started noticing the CFSv2 with strong highs at the surface undercutting the 500 eastern ridge on the 6z runs. At this range, they are close. I don't think any model has handled the MJO progression very well of late. It is more of a which model has been worse. Here is the GEFS 5d temp profile fro Jan 10-15. The pattern itself begins to slide into place next weekend.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And you know, there is more. Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 for fun.............I will trust that you will look at the stamps to see the duration.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Check out what the control does. The first of the cold hits the US/Canadian border by Jan 7.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And I should add this pattern is within 8 days. The first of it knocks on door at the US/Canadian border by Jan 7.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I am guessing we are getting ready to take a ride on the strat split express. For Jan 10-20, there is probably going to be model mayhem as we get closer (IF this ensembles are even close to accurate). Again, it is pretty rare to get all of NA that cold...and models have tried during past years.). But often extreme patterns are recognized at about this range. So, time will tell.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I hate to overhype this, the CFSv2 has a similar solution as does the CMC. I do caution this could end-up west, but there is very little mechanism to keep it there (no Nina). The GEFS is not much warmer, but it isn't like 500 standard deviations below normal like the others.
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