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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Another little system rolls through Monday. It is small, but could have some snow with it north of I-40 in E TN.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And one last map, and it probably deserves to go into banter, but hey, it's the holidays. This is last night's full-run of the ext GEFS (control). I don't know what somebody did in south-central TN to make wx model programmers mad, but....LOL. Anyway, that is the map through Jan 31.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Just tagging onto Holston's 3k gif for tomorrow, there is quite a lot on the table in modeling in the short and medium ranges. I think it is more nickel and dime stuff, but there are some decent passes that a very short NW jog could change to something better. There are three pieces of energy rotating through next week alone. The 6z GEFS has this for the full-run snow mean. Sometimes, I look at the long range, and fail to mention the potential closer at hand. Not a bad look....and probably means that some members have those slp running inland instead of off the coast.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I read from a met in the MA forum who cautioned their forum (if I interpreted those comments correctly) not to buy-in to MJO rotations into the warm phases quite yet. He noted that might be an error in the same vein that modeling was in error last winter when trying to rotate the MJO into phases 8-2-1. Modeling is definitely struggling with rotating past phase 3. I think it will, but it is no slam dunk. One thing the met noted was that as modeling gets closer, it adjusts better as maybe modeling doesn't handle the MJO well during d10-15, but corrects once inside of d10. That swords cuts both ways...meaning the near range may be colder than originally modeled(much higher amplitude into phase one than was forecast), but w/ the MJO flirting with warmer phases in the longer range...the LR (d10-15) may not be "seeing" the MJO rotation into warmer phases. If the MJO fails to rotate out of the COD (while in the warm phases), and treks back into 7-3, then we may be looking at a significantly long period of cold weather. That is spitballing on my part, and could be an error.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And tomorrow will likely feature lots of snow showers over the forum area with minor accumulations(elevation advantage) as @Holston_River_Rambler pointed out earler. The 3k NAM definitely has widespread, light snow showers for much of the forum area. Streamers reach into the northern third of Alabama. It wouldn't surprise me to see some of this fall as a mix or even light rain, depending on the time of day. From MRX this morning: On Friday, the center of an upper level closed low will be situated across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana with a surface wave across central Illinois. An inverted sfc trough will be aligned across Eastern Tennessee. This upper level low will move east through the day Friday before elongating in response to phasing associated with a northern branch north of the Great Lakes. As the past few discussions have pointed out, this system is fairly moisture starved. Colder temperatures aloft will promote some instability and shower activity across the region Friday into Saturday. Coverage appears to be scattered at best given the lack of moisture. It will be cold enough for snow showers, especially across the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and higher elevations of East Tennessee. Snow total amounts remain mostly unchanged with just a few tenths of an inch across most locations. Slightly higher amounts (1-2 inches) may be found across the highest elevations where temperatures will remain colder for most of the event. Eventually this system will exit the region Saturday afternoon with decreasing chances of precipitation.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is it. Great stuff on all fronts. I "think" modeling is picking up on the Lower 48's first Arctic outbreak of the winter - maybe right after the 12th. That may well be the consequences of the SSW disruption which began a few weeks back. Looks to me like we may well get some of the coldest air in the norther hemisphere to work into the NA pattern. We are going to see some model chaos. La Nina's would normally park a SER over us in that pattern...but without the Nina driver, it may well just come in waves. I think we see a warm-up right after that, a reset, and then very cold air after that. I am actually good with just jostling the spv and the tpv. I don't know if this makes sense, but vs the Arctic just jettisoning all of the cold at once...I prefer it rolling to lower latitudes in waves. That said, I am growing a bit more concerned that all of it heads south somewhere in a window of Jan25th to Feb 10th.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, were global ensembles even colder overnight? Looked to me like a ridge rolls through on the ~9th, and then a colder air mass right after that. The CFSv2 (I used that to extrapolate past global ensembles) has a warm-up and then brings temps almost twenty-five degrees below normal for early Feb. I think that must be the strat warm effect.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yep. All true.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That is a debate which could go three pages! It is highly dependent on which area of the forum one lived as to whether that worked out for them during the last three winters. The warm phases of MJO were toasty in NE TN during the last three winters - and those were with some version of SSWs. I was in shorts while you all were trying to keep the lights on. LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Now, I should also add that I am not trying say that we are going to see extreme weather....just maybe seasonal wintry stuff for E TN, and probably slightly BN for points west. That isn't me being a homer either. During La Nina winters(unless it is weak), the opposite is true. Nobody can see the future, so that makes this part of the fun. But it sure beats tracking what we track last winter which was pretty much a barren wasteland of meh after December. Again, the MJO and warm phases are a BIG problem if the Atlantic doesn't help.
  11. Carvers Gap
    This is the current run of the 18z GEFS...day one compared to day 15. IF(stress if) this is correct, that puts much of NA below normal for temps. More importantly, our source regions will not be where it is red. Now, keep in mind that those AN temps in Canada are still incredibly cold here at this latitude. The problem with a warm Canada is that the air modifies more quickly when it originates AN there. This is a very classic El Nino flip. How long it lasts is up for great debate!!!! But I will say that any time it is BN during the heart of our coldest temps, that is very cold air to our north.
  12. Carvers Gap
    First, the December warm-up is over. The January warm-up lurks during mid-month, but is not certain. Details below... During January, it is much easier to scour out warm air. It does not want to be warm during Canada during January, and I don't think it will. Chinooks are not abnormal for Canada, but that has halted. Canada will be (likely) nearly completely vacated of warm-air by the first week of January and below normal by the second week of January. It only takes about a week for the entire continent to be flooded with Arctic air. That means our source regions are likely going to be MUCH different. La Nina winters (which you should get next winter) are money for your area - El Nino is tougher but doable w/ your climatology. Mid-January is a 50/50 call right now in regards to warm or cold. I would say Jan 12-22 is probably the thaw if pressed....but that NAO develops, all bets are off. I had wondered if this would be a thaw when ext LR models hiccuped(as we have to have cold in order to have a thaw). I think much of E TN will be BN for temps for the next two weeks. Again, the opening salvo of winter, warm rebounds, and the cold takes hold again....that is what modeling is showing. Going to be an MJO vs NAO cage match it appears. We just need to hope the NAO shows up for the fight! For now, my thoughts on cold are during two time frames: December28-Jan12 and Jan25-most of Feb. That can and will change, but those are my thoughts for now.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Dropping these here for later to see if they verify.....precip is much below normal from the Plateau westward. It is below normal as well for E TN, but right next to AN...likely signifying snow(snowy areas are sometimes BN for precip on ext models). Snow track is NE GA to the New England and secondary Midwest. But give me that 500 pattern, those temps, that HL blocking, and an active El Nino storm track...and let's roll. Fingers crossed this is legit. Hard to believe a 46d temp map would be that cold. That would put DJF below normal for eastern areas.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Great points. After reading your post, I pulled yesterday's 6-10 day analogs from CPC and the day 8-14. The first set are d6-10 and second set are d8-14. Interesting to see January of 85 in there. I don't think we see that type of extreme, but interesting to see it in the analog package for d6-10. I didn't expect that. 19881217 19570101 19661228 19810106 19770102 19550112 19640113 19850106 19870114 19550120 19670102 19640113 19890105 19881228 19790116 19550115 19570105 19760103 19701224 19600108
  15. Carvers Gap
    Other than that, feel free to debate, discuss, and dissect the above. Those are just ideas and some brainstorming from this morning. Have at it!
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is Part 3, and the final of my series of posts this morning. These posts focus on the medium and long range(those are my interests). ALL of this will likely change to some degree, but let's hope we keep the basis. (There is certainly PLENTY to talk about prior to the 11th, and I have not discussed it with these posts). Anyway, here are comparable hours of the three major ensembles. I have no idea if these verify. BUT, this is an example (not to be taken as gosple) of how a favorable Atlantic(Boone has discussed this) can save a crappy Pacific. The 6z GEFS has a perfectly placed NAO right over the Davis Straits. The 0z EPS is less optimal as it has a block, but it is debatable if that is a true NAO or displaced WAR (western Atlantic ridge). The 0z GEPS is pretty much what you want to see if you want lots of snow in the East. The conveyor belt from Alaska to the SE is on tap. Now, all of this gets kind of wild. Why? Well, there is an attempt at a zonal Pacific air mass. However, with the block, some cold should surge southward. So, we get this mix of zonal and polar/Arctice air which should equate to storminess. Two of those maps are essentially turning a Pacific firehose loose on a cold air mass centered over the Lower 48. Blend those three maps together, and you get a pretty good pattern. And this is what it looks like at the surface(I might be off 6-12 hours per map due to not paying attention to toggling and being too lazy to go back and fix it!) I have mentioned the MJO is driving the bus. But when I started digging this morning...maybe it is not??? And that is open for much debate. We may be seeing a winter where the Atlantic is driving the bus. That can happen. We certainly want the Pacific if we can get it, but blocking over Greenland provides confluence over our area(where we want phasing to occur). Right now, phasing is east of us. Let's see what happens if we see HL blocking develop over the Atlantic. Temps may be marginal, but January is our one month where temps don't have to be below normal for snow. We can actually get snow with normal temps to slightly above normal. Now, if these maps flip warmer, we know modeling is probably focusing on the IO/Indonesia area where warm MJO phases originate... For now, we had better hope the AO/NAO take hold. Of particular caution, the SSW has been occurring for some time. Credit goes to the sometimes maligned JB. He has been writing about this since mid December and predicted it months ago. I noticed that Amy Butler(nobody better at strat warm stuff) is now mentioning a true SSW might be at hand. Think about this....we are probably in the middle of an extended warming. That means that the actual tropospheric results might be impacting current wx and not just 2-3 weeks out. The caution I mention is this...we often see models erroneously send cold eastward w/ SSWs, and then trend West w/ the cold. That said, that was during the past three consecutive La Nina winters.....the trough wanted to go into the West anyway, especially w the past PDO signal. This winter is more of a signal for cold dropping into the West and sliding eastward quickly with less SER(no SER?) to stop it. Remember when the cold hit the Plateau and wouldn't come a mile further? All of us east of that do, and it was properly discussed yesterday. With the setup above, the cold would charge down the Plains and crash maybe all of the way to Florida. One might be concerned with a suppressed pattern, and that may well occur. But w/ the PNA being negative to neutral, we may well see a broader trough(mentioned in the MA forum) which allows systems to slide across instead of head to Cuba.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Here is the Dec 27 6x GEFS NAO plot. The AO looks almost identical. It just tanks. That is the counterbalance to a bad MJO. The Euro Weeklies turned out to be accurate after the aforementioned hiccup. Here are there Dec 26 0z AO, NAO, and EPO teleconnection plots. The green line is the mean, and blue is the control for those new to these. Unlike the GEFS run above which is 16 days, the Weeklies run to the second week of February. They are modeling an extended bout of -AO, -NAO, and then a -EPO(Jan 19th). I just realized that I cut the dates off...so use the EPO turning negative as a benchmark(Jan 19th). Now, what is striking(maybe disturbing) is the control is NOT in sync with the ensemble. Now, that isn't totally unexpected, but that does signal some conflict within the model itself.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I am going to place a series of posts (more for discussion as there are DEFINITELY two sides to this coin). Take a look at the NAO/AO couplet. Notice anything? When they were positive this month, it got really warm. When they were briefly negative to start the month, there was brief cold to follow. Now, there is a little bit of a lag, but in general....surface temps IMBY correlate to the NAO/AO phase. We have been a whopping +13.83 degrees above normal at TRI for Christmas for the time frame of Dec 24-26th. Ext LR modeling very accurately portrayed the warm-up, and its demise. From about 4-5 weeks out, they nailed the turn to seasonal/colder to within about 48 hours. They had Christmas week as the transition week w/ the exception of a 2-3 day hiccup where they lost continuity. That is impressive. But Merry Torchmas! Folks, these two graphs were about all that I used when I first started following wx modeling. Well, I followed those and the NOGAPS. Both were surprisingly accurate, and I am not sure that I am getting a much better today. The graphics are certainly better, but those graphs in tandem with the NOGAPS were decent. So, here is what I know when I see that couplet turn negative in tandem. It is about to get cold. It is about to get stormy. There is more potential for snow. That December peak in the positive domain would have meant near record warm temps.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS are mercifully developing textbook -NAO signatures around mid-Jan. That could fight an upcoming potential bout of a VERY hostile Pacific. The MJO crawling through warm phases looks more and more likely. There is still an outside chance we could get a low amplitude pass through warm phases or a COD. Back to the NAO....during Nina winters that NAO has hooked into the SER every, single Nina winter(of the past three winters) I "think" at one point. With the SER missing right now, the NAO is less likely to make that connection....but make no mistake, if the SER is there, the likelihood of the SER connecting with the NAO goes way, way, up due to the MJO phase. If the NAO block does not take hold, a return to a more favorable pattern after the 10th could be anywhere between Jan 25th or even as late as the second week of Feb. The MJO is very close to a "winter ender" if there is no Atlantic help. If the MJO rotates (as slowly as prognosticated....it is a little faster today), it would leave maybe 2-3 weeks of winter on the table - maybe. So, we need what hasn't happened during the past three winters, we need the MJO to rotate through warm phases...and still stay cold in eastern NA... the mid-court bank shot so to speak. The great thing? Modeling has it. Fingers crossed.
  20. Carvers Gap
    We are AN for rainfall for December at TRI. This month has been super beneficial. We still have a ways to go in order to get things replenished, but that was a good start. Hope everyone else is able to cash-in on some precip. Rain shadows up here are no joke. With a Nina summer on deck, we need to get decent rainfall this winter. I think east of the TN river drainage in E TN is the best bet for normal rainfall.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Until it proves me wrong, the MJO is the Draw Four card in this UNO game....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove thinks springs shows up during March (above normal?) mainly because the Nino collapses during the next 8 weeks. If the Nino holds on, that would mean a cooler spring. If Nina shows up, warm.... @jaxjagman, do you have the ENSO graph for the next few months? But to answer your question, I am not sure. I could see March being cold to start and end warm. That is just an educated guess. If winter goes severe during February, it would make sense for it to snap back to a warm pattern once the cold is spent.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I suspect modeling is waaaay under doing the warm-up. Ensembles are starting to see the MJO rotation now, but no slam dunk that it is warm. Where I would have said there is about a 90% chance of significant warm wx after the 10th, now I would say 70%. Then cold looms again after that - maybe 4 weeks of seasonal/BN and we make a break for spring. The NAO could completely erase the warm sig on modeling...but I just think the MJO wins.
  24. Carvers Gap
    If the MJO was driving the bus, this should park a trough out West.....that is a really cold pattern right there. Hints of an EPO ridge, NAO(slightly displaced), and a confluence over our latitude. Normally, I wouldn't show a 360 hour ensemble thumbnail, but go take a look at its past few runs.......this is a big change, and that started overnight.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The CMC has a winter storm just before 200h. That would bring the zr/sn line well south if that verified. Fun suite today.
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