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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    That has to be strat split stuff.........that is a bonafide Arctic outbreak on the GFS late in the run, and the CMC has it inside of 10 days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z suite is making me want to go build a fire in the fireplace...man.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Latest outlooks. Seasonal will work in Jan/Feb. Drought predicted to persist in middle and western areas of the forum north of I-40.
  4. Carvers Gap
    This is what we are tracking.....
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th. Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there. There is also a stronger signal after 300. I think we have our chances through the 10th, and then my concerns grow considerably in terms of an extended warm-up. One MJO plot had the MJO taking 6-7 days per phase once into the warm phases. Considering there are roughly 4 warm phases.....Going to need some help. That could happen - see conversations on the previous page. That said, the MJO has been a decent predictor again this winter so far. We need to score between Christmas and Jan10, or a long wait might be in store. February would likely have the MJO hit the mother load of cold phases FWIW.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Whew, I hate to can-kick to Feb. That rarely works out, but can-kicking did during 09-10 - but we had an early start there that moderated(no such thing this winter). And when I say crawling, I am talking 15 days just to get through the first half of the warm MJO phases. But HLB could counter balance that. The set-up would be the dam breaking by the first or second week of Feb. I do think I remember also that phase 3 of the MJO isn't bad for North Carolina @GaWx . Main concern with a strat split is that really only helps later in Jan. But we will see....this seems like a winter that when it gets cold, it may find a way to stay that way or at least seasonal.
  7. Carvers Gap
    If we are not to lose a large chunk of our best climatology(and assuming the MJO plots are right about 20-25 day rotation through the warm phases), there will have to be a counter balance. There are times when we have stayed cold during warm phases of the MJO(maybe 95-96?). It is rare, but it can happen. This winter kind of has that feel that we could buck the MJO. JB mentioned the -AO could counter the MJO. I have no idea it that happens, but the Weeklies do hint at that.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies reflect many of the MJO indices which take the MJO and absolutely crawl through the warm phases - like a 20-25 day crawl or more. Hoping that isn't real. If it is, we get about ten days to start January which are good, and then burn about 3 weeks of prime winter w/ a trough out West.
  9. Carvers Gap
  10. Carvers Gap
    Whew, ensembles are cold this afternoon. The GEPS is an icebox.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Not really, but it would be rare not to have it at some point. Mid January would be my best guess. Modeling diverges a bit after the first week of January with some runs trying to pull the trough into the West for a couple of weeks while others counter that with a -NAO(more of a nationwide cold-ish outbreak). Overnight extended modeling(weeklies) were the warmer version, but really with it still being almost three weeks away...anything is on the table with recent model flips. The MJO is forecast to hit the warm phases during the middle weeks of January(and crawl through them), but who knows. Now, the BOMM stalls the MJO in cold phases. If the MJO stalls there, that would be more than stellar. MJO forecasts this winter have been turrriiiiblllle. Cosgrove thinks a mid Jan thaw, and I would have a hard time disagreeing with that. But to get a thaw, we have to see some cold first which we should. Now, the Holy Grail, is to get cold while the MJO is in the warm phases...and the Euro Weeklies do indeed try that mid-court bank shot. Like LC, I do like late Jan into Feb. Days are getting longer which is not great, but with so many coastals of late...have to think somebody in our forum makes bank if so. If the MJO plot is correct, we rotate into colder phases during our stormiest time of winter (late Jan/early Feb). So, with a thaw showing up in Jan....maybe some SER will accompany that. Maybe the bigger story is the NAO showing up in the longer range. That block would produces sliders and prevent cutters, and could mute the MJO. So, if we don't get a mini-SER, the NAO would maybe be the next best thing.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Between the tourists (used to not be that many) and the weather, it can get crazy at 5,000’!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Funny quote from the MA thread. Someone asked if the volcano in Iceland would help or hurt our snow chances. One response said that molten lava could be a problem.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Nice squall just moved through. Heavy snow showers w/ 1/8mi visibility and winds 25-30mph(gusting stronger). We now officially have snow on the ground - probably a dusting to maybe a tenth or two.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The HRRR, 3K NAM, and RGEM all handled this pretty well.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Heavy snow shower just moved through w/ snow riding 30mph winds! Crazy wx out there.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Man. And you know that isn't warm either!!!!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Wind is absolutely howling here. Pretty sure I am going to have to reset some Christmas lights.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Most of this in our sub forum falls later in the run...special zoom-in of the GEPS for TRI peeps. Decent numbers this far out.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Modeling during the past 3-4 days regarding the MJO and warmth.............
  21. Carvers Gap
    PNA for the win? We really don't need all of Canada to be cold with the set-up being modeled which is about ten days out(not months or weeks). We need Quebec to be cold, and it is likely going to be. While the rest of Canada is warm, Quebec is the fridge so far this winter. Ensembles are cooling off quite a bit right around the 28th or even earlier. I don't know if the BN heights in the SE are transient or semi-stationary around that time - proceed with caution. MJO plots are hinting at a stall in cold phases, but that is likely the same error from a couple of weeks ago where modeling tried to end the MJO before reaching the cold phases - that looks to be a really bad error/bias in modeling(underestimating the MJO pulse's ability to keep going). Honestly, I would be really surprised if we don't snow snow IF, IF, IF that verifies. And you haven't heard me say that for E TN in quite a while. That is a really wintry pattern on ensembles, and the 12z GEFS looks as bullish as the EPS yesterday.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I know, right!
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS is one possibility of where this pattern may go.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Whoever wrote this....we need the "one of us!" GIF. Gives a shoutout to our SE folks - I like that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And a general rule of systems which dive into the wake of systems departing the EC...they tend to trend north. However, this could be a very impressive system in the TN/NC Apps above 3,000'.
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