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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
  2. Carvers Gap
    Euro seasonals say, "Bring it."
  3. Carvers Gap
    Winter Weather Advisories posted for the spine of the southern Apps along most of the TN/NC border. Snow showers are in my forecast for late tonight and early tomorrow AM. MRX: A trough over the northern Plains this morning will be pushing SW and amplifying through the day. A channeled vort max around the base of the trough will be pushing into our area this afternoon, generating some weak lift and steepening lapse rates. Initially, moisture will be confined below 850 mb, as we are seeing with the low clouds this morning. By 00Z, the midlevels begin to saturate as the trough brings colder temps aloft, and precip should increase quickly around that time in northern sections. Initial temperatures at precip onset will be in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s, but a shift of 850 mb winds around midnight will enhance cold advection and steepen lapse rates, changing rain showers to snow showers in SW VA, NE TN, northern Plateau, and the TN mountains. In lower elevations, surface temps will likely be too warm for much snow accumulation (mid 30s), but for locations above 2500 ft, temps should be cold enough for snow to accumulate. A NW flow of around 25 kts will enhance precip rates in the higher elevations through Wednesday morning. With low level trajectories off the Great Lakes and the 850 mb flow persisting around 25 kts, the TN mountains and higher elevations of SW VA will continue to see some accumulating light snow into Wednesday afternoon. With this duration of snowfall, at least 1 inch accumulation is likely for locations above 2500 ft, so a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued. Above 4000 ft in the Smokies, amounts will likely exceed 3 inches, but will have an Advisory for that area given the snow amounts will be highly dependent on local terrain, and most populated areas will be under 3 inches.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Or maybe I should have just said... The 18z GFS heard the thundahhhh!
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS just slams the door on fall. That is winter. I doubt that verifies, but that is winter.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Hey, man, and good to have you in thread. When BNA shows up, it is time for business.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That map by Jax has the mid NA ridge which sets the stage for a WAR to go up briefly. Behind that WAR is the pattern change. That is the last or second to last ridge to roll through. Hey, does anyone have a link to the Google AI maps? JB mentioned that ECMWF had them for free. I haven't looked. Great discussion everyone.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is really cold under that high though. There are -15F readings in Quebec. I think it is the combination of tight wavelengths, and early season hp. Those early season highs aren't super strong, and it is originating from a less than stellar cold air mass. Very Nino looking though w/ marginal air masses down this way.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I mean it is possible that a cold high could slide into those short wavelengths and get trapped with a high over the top. That is ice city if real - which it probably isn't. To my untrained eye, that would be a fairly shallow surface high with big pressure building over the top.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Snow map is posted so that you can see the storm track. Notice the deep snow cover over Quebec and eastern Canada - that is like a recharging battery for cold over the East. On the 500 map(30d map from Dec20 -Jan19, notice where the BN heights are. This has present for weeks if not months on LR modeling. HL latitude blocking signatures are present as is a +PNA w/ split flow. Bout time to mount up. Lots to like about those maps. Even better, the 12z EPS supports the 0z Weeklies 500 maps. On about a 14-16 day countdown at this point. This is the exact opposite of last winter where we could see the end of the cold at this point.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Man, the Euro Weeklies drop the hammer at about d14 at 500...takes the temps about 3-4 days later to come down, but 09-10esque. The weather today just feels like the intro to a transition. Thunder, lightning, wind, rain...everything that fall wasn't.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Just a slight disconnect!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Truly amazing how accurate that rule is.......
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is showing a switch to the long discussed switch to Nino climatology - meaning SE trough. The switch/transition is now at d14.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I don't know honestly. I don't keep track of severe as much as I do winter wx events. Right now, this looks like an upper-Gulf Coast states events. Southern TN could get involved. But as Powell noted, pretty unusual to see sever wx outlook this far out...
  16. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove feels like the storm this weekend sets the stage for the trough to drop-in about 10 days later. He thinks that is the catalyst.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Of course everything is subjective past 5-7 days. However, it looks like modeling has been quite consistent in switching the pattern up around the 20th at 500mb. Now, that might take a few days past that for cold air to enter the pattern. I think Nino is driving the boat now. We are seeing increased precip, cloudy days, and the signature 50/60s temps and lows in the 40s. My seasonal ideas have the pattern changing to cold by mid January. Models are much faster than that w/ the Dec 20th change...if they are right. The WAR showing up on modeling does hint at an SSW incoming. I used to get frustrated when I would see the SER hook-into the NAO. Not anymore. That is usually a fairly big precursor to big pattern changes down the road. The 12z GEPS has the change now at d14-15 now. Honestly, it is pretty impressive that the Euro Weeklies could possibly have nailed this switch from 4-6 weeks - pretty amazing when one thinks about it.
  18. Carvers Gap
    If weather models were college football playoff teams: Michigan = Euro. We know they are good, but that model steals our signs and Heismans(I mean snow). And some of us really just don't like that model, because it is only blue(at 500) in Michigan. Texas = GFS. It is all American, and is only good during the fall. Washington = CMC. They seem like they should belong, but nobody is quite sure until they actually win against a good team. Alabama = AI model. AI should be better. Why? It is AI, and it gets in because Google made it. But really, we aren't sure if it is better, or just has a good day every once in a while. FSU = CFSv2. We know it is good, but we just don't think it can stand up against other models. But A LOT of us don't like the AI model, and would prefer the CFSv2 as a personal preference. (no offense meant towards our AI friends in the Big Bend area of the TN river). Georgia = UKMET. It leads the way right before the Euro comes out every day. But in the end, it just isn't the Euro, and AI made it look bad. Tennessee = Euro Weeklies. They always look good from a distance. But when reality hits, it is just a passing cold front. But we love them, because they alway show orange(on 500 maps) over Greenland. Plus, the Weeklies are said to be able to throw it 80 yards. But last year the Weeklies were better than the AI model, and we are gonna live on that for the next five years.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That cutter is likely gonna be strong. It probably isn't wrong unfortunately. Good find.
  20. Carvers Gap
    All global ensembles to varying degrees have the pattern change at around d15-16. Still a ways to go, but good to see that ridge getting the boot.
  21. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome. You all needed every drop. Hopefully, that is the end of fire season.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The warm start to December is shrinking with each passing model run. Here at TRI, we have two different days in which snow might fly this week.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It is possible they got that here. Check page 3 of the winter spec thread during late October. We have a page or two on those post-drought winters. I was really surprised to see our driest Sept/Oct were predominantly El Nino. La Nina falls are often dry and hot...but the very worst were Nino. But yes, really crazy stat. I think there must be some loose correlation.
  24. Carvers Gap
    MRX afternoon disco. All right, foothills/plateau/mountain residents, here is the evening disco from MRX: .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 318 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Key Messages: 1. Another shortwave trough brings colder air and a NW flow pattern, with accumulating snowfall expected in higher elevations on Wednesday. 2. Potential for a strong system to affect the region next weekend. Discussion: Not much has changed over the last 24 hours as we progress the long term period out another day. Outside of lingering precipitation overnight Monday night, we quickly move to the next shortwave that will come swinging into the area Tuesday night. As has been the discussion, the cold air the shortwave is bringing with it along with decent low level moisture and upslope flow will combine to produce a light snowfall accumulation in the mountains. Some snow showers into the lower elevations of NE TN and SW VA is also possible, but accumulations beyond a quick dusting will be hard with marginal surface temperatures. With all the clouds and rain/snow showers around, Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week, with forecast already below NBM and might go even cooler for daytime temperatures given the ongoing weather at that time. NAM has a high of 36 at Bristol, adjusted the temperatures to move slightly in that direction. The good news is once the upper trough exits sometime Wednesday evening heights will build back in as a ridge moves into our area, bringing a warming trend on through the for the remainder of the week. Ensembles and the deterministic guidance still show a deep upper trough this upcoming weekend which will be the next system after Wednesday to watch. Guidance is keyed in on a potent overall setup, just details to hash out when we get closer. Though the solutions are different, both GFS and Euro bring strong return flow and potent dynamics. At the very least this should boost us back to pleasant temperatures, though this reprieve will be short lived with the presumably strong cold front.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z ensembles are also starting to get the potential pattern change in their sights as the post Dec 20th transition window slides into view. Ridge is getting dislodged on both the GEPS and GEFS.
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