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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Big time can kicking. The Euro Weeklies this evening look slightly better. I would say roughly Jan 10th is when it shows cold showing up. At this point, I am just not sure I trust that model. Might be better to ride w/ global ensembles d1-16 and just climatology for seasonal forecasting. I do think we see a trough set-up shop during the last ten days of December, but with virtually no cold air to fill it.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just spending some more time looking at the MJO, I believe the Euro Weeklies are in error. They have been wrong with the amplitude of the current reality, and I believe that will likely occur when it hits the cold phases as well. Right now, the amplitude is too low, and I think that will change. The consequences of that error is the model is way to warm for the end of the month and early January.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I will also note that during January there is a 2-3 week window (mid Jan to first week of Feb) where someone in the forum scores regardless of the set-up or lack thereof. I suspect this will be true again, and if so, with more of a focus on eastern areas of the forum. We are seeing hints of that even now...meaning regional placement of snow showers/flurries.
  4. Carvers Gap
    As we wake up this morning to the news from Middle TN, I would like to express my condolences to those communities. I think @PowellVolz said it best earlier this past week, when you see that hatch posted that early, you know it has the potential to be bad. As for the long range, I will keep it short. Weeklies modeling are very likely going to bust both on temps and at 500 for late December and most of January. To clarify (edit), this means that all of those great looks that we have seen for weeks-on-end re: the end of December and early January...are not likely to verify. Though, I do think winter makes its appearance for late January into February, but that idea is less certain now. A back loaded winter fits climatology. However, as others have noted, 97-98 is on the table. Now oddly, two of those warm winters during the late 90s produced two separate heavy snow events - one in Kingsport and one in Johnson City. Neither city saw the same snow amounts as the other. One thing to consider as well, if LR modeling was wrong for weeks on end...it could be wrong now. However, synoptically, the big area of LP in the eastern Pac is the problem. When that feature shows up on winter modeling, it is a huge problem and often degrades very slowly. A massive Chinook is likely to scour all BN temps from Canada. Now that doesn't mean Canadian AN temps equal AN temps here as that air is sometimes jettisoned southward by rainy coastal storms along the US EC. AN Canadian air masses are still cold in TN. For now, I don't see a SER in place, but I don't see air masses which can seed winter storms at lower elevations. It is possible that storms can produce their own cold in the northwest quadrant if the storm is strong enough though. Windows for storms with very marginal temperature profiles are roughly Dec 17th and maybe Christmas Eve. I expect those to have rain in the valleys, but that is a guess. The mountains could do ok. As for when/if cold returns to Canada.....it is going to take several weeks IF the chinook unfolds as modeled. That will erase snowpack and cold. If this was a La Nina winter, I would say the game is up, even this early in the winter. However, El Nino winters have a nasty habit of showing up right as winter seems over. I suspect this is the case. One last note, modeling has been abysmal at recognizing that the MJO is taking the tour. It keeps trying to dive the MJO into the COD. The MJO so far has shown higher amplitude than originally forecast. If that is the case at the moment, modeling may be completely blind to cold showing up later this month.... For now, we will rely on storm track and marginal air masses. That can work, but it ain't easy!
  5. Carvers Gap
    I am gonna pull down that recent post. I am going to pause weather discussion (on my part) until the severe wx goes through. Those videos in the severe thread of the tornado in middle TN are heartbreaking.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. Thanks for the update. Good luck with your classes! Welcome to the TRI crew.....
  7. Carvers Gap
    And the 0z NAM is back in....
  8. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS has and inland runner - perfect track.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 18z 12kNAM puts down 5-10” (Kuchera) of snow in the eastern mountains. Looks elevation dependent - WxBell algorithm.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control has a monster Apps mauler around the 17th. Let’s see if the pieces stay on future runs...has the potential for a phase.
  11. Carvers Gap
    All of that said, I do think there is a window for a storm around Dec 17th and again around Christmas Eve. Temps are likely not great, but the timeframe around the 17th has my passing attention.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Whew. That is some UGLY looking surface temps stuff on the 12z GEFS after the 20th. There are quite literally no below normal temps over the continental US nor Canada w/ the exception of the Yukon. Woof. LOL. That looks like a warm bias, but the GEFS has been formidable of late. The 12z GEPS looks more realistic for sure. So far, the Euro Weeklies have done a good job hitting the 500 pattern. I would probably trust them more on temps.... I did look at the MJO plots around lunch, they actually look decent. For now, we can say global ensemble trends aren't the best. However, there is quite a disconnect between ensembles, the MJO, and extended weeklies. Again, the mis-forecasted WAR(under modeled its strength) seems to have caused havoc along with a strong area of BN heights in the eastern Pac. As I noted yesterday, we are probably going to have to wait a while for cold temps. My thinking on that hasn't changed today, and I might be even more pessimistic today. I thought December would be warm...but the GEFS is certainly to an extreme I hadn't envisioned. When the cold does show up, it will almost certainly travel over thin snow pack in Canada before it gets here.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Seriously, the 6z NAM Kuchera is impressive for TRI, SWVA, and the mountains.
  14. Carvers Gap
    And with a flurry of posts, I have to head to the school car line...the 6z NAM and RGEM look interesting for the higher elevations of NE TN/Plateau. I can never tell if those models really see the valleys or just put snow IMBY to smooth things out. But that might need its own thread if we are seeing that at 0z.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Now, if you want to see a REALLY wild feature. Look at the last 36 hours of the GFS run in Canada. I was trying to find how they were getting +55F anomalies (anomalies!) in northwest Canada. It is a monster Chinook, and I mean monster. The low in the Aleutians has to be absolutely spinning super high winds into the Rockies there. That floods Canada with incredibly warm air, but it likely also will factor in popping the PNA right after that. Just a very strong and volatile weather pattern on the 6z GFS across much of NA. And I mentioned the SE coastal lows that form....crazy fun run. I for sure will double down on yesterday's post and reiterate that truly cold air is probably at least a month out. However, storms and rumors of storms will precede any cold intrusion...and we might have a chance with just seasonal climatology and storm track.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS is a wild run end to end. That run is an exemplar of what a Nino winter could look like. Yes, mountain communities could have a wild ride if the 6z GFS is remotely correct. Mountain communities like Mountain City, Roan Mountain, Unicoi/Erwin, and the Burg.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Europe has been hammered. I was not a huge fan of Webber taunting people in the Mid-Atlantic, and then completely flipped to their viewpoint a few weeks later. He used to be much more metric driven, and maybe this season not as much....but he is a good met. He has bounced around a bunch this fall. I probably should do more weather Twitter(I used to), but I don't think I have looked at a weather Tweet since last year(other than what is shared here). I probably should do more Twitter(nothing against the company), but wx Twitter just got to where it had too much hype and they were grabbing information from forums like this. Amy Butler is a good read for all things strat-warming.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The best thing about LR guidance is almost a complete absence of the SER.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I think we see a really good winter. I just wanted to get everyone ready for great 500 maps which have poor source regions. Some of our best winters started late. Some of our worst winters took the same path (warm start) and never started. LOL. The storm track itself is what has me encouraged. The WAR gives me pause as almost all LR modeling missed it completely. So, we have a fox(WAR) in the henhouse, and I proceed carefully when I see it. But generally, that creates an SSW. The strat just gets hammered. Almost all extended ensembles remove the WAR by the middle of the last week of December. I think we have to wait on the really cold air until January. That fits climatology - decent 500 pattern but marginal cold. I do think our patience will be rewarded.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yes, it should be getting out of the way...sliding into the Aleutians. The PNA is gonna pop...just a matter of when. I think modeling was too quick. Though certainly the Weeklies today are strong with the PNA than yesterday.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Who are those guys?
  22. Carvers Gap
    No kicking the can at 500. I want to emphasize that at this time. It honestly looks locked in. If any cold whatsoever enters the pattern, it is heading SE. So, the deliver mechanism is there...bu the coolant in the fridge is running on low. Temps are just not as cold. The low over Alaska is stronger along with the WAR. That combo locks up cold. LR modeling missed the WAR. But the WAR could be a blessing in disguise if it does what I think it is going to do. Definitely patience is always warranted during Nino winters. Honestly, just looks like a typical Nino pattern in terms of cold. As one of the posters noted in the MA forum, Canada is often not super cold during Nino winters.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I should also note that the Euro Weeklies have us at a net below normal for temps over the next 46 days, and that includes withstanding a major warm-up just prior to Christmas. Precip for middle and western areas of the forum is shown to be well below normal. Eastern areas are right on the border of seasonal and below. So, I don't see a torch(other than right before Christmas)....just a lot marginal temp stuff. Traditionally, we need a deep, cold air mass for snow...so marginal air masses make it trick. This weekend is a great example.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is all over the place right now. Source regions are a problem right now....I repeat, source regions are a problem. It appears highly unlikely that the cold snap between Christmas and New Years is going to materialize. Let's get that out of the way right now. The western Atlantic ridge has holding power, and until it is gone...no chance of cold getting into the East. Personally, I don't know that the MJO is playing a huge roll right now. The IO is a problem if it is firing in the wrong place for sure - I haven't looked. I think the 500mb pattern is still on track to switch, and looks REALLY good...but cold air will be hugely lacking until early January - that is a BIG change during the past 48 hours. Now, that doesn't mean it won't snow. We are getting to the time of the year where marginal set-ups can work(John just posted about that for reference). All of that said, LR modeling has an ebb and flow to it re: temps, and things could change quickly. I have a sneaking suspicion that the strat is getting hammered, and that could be taking a wrecking ball to LR modeling. Remember this, when you see a big WAR(western Atlantic ridge), it is often a precursor to a very sharp cold snap 2-3 weeks later. The Euro Weeklies are picking up on a storm tracking across the South during Christmas Eve...but for now we will call it a rainer. So, to sum it up, the 500 pattern is right on track w/ one exception - a big western Atlantic ridge. That said, BN heights under that ridge(where we live in the SE) exist. Storm tracks to out south are starting to show up which is encouraging. Most LR modeling is completely blind to cold snaps past 3 weeks...so any cold intrusion at all is going to have to be watched with this active STJ. The Alaskan low as it retrogrades into the Aleutians will possibly be like a dam break as it "should" release cold into North America during the first week of January. Honestly, if it kicks the can about ten more days into mid-Jan, my winter forecast for January could hit - LOL, so I am good either way. Nino rains appear on tap, just need some cold...stay tuned.
  25. Carvers Gap
    If that PNA pops like it is on some modeling, the potential for very cold air masses to plunge southward is plausible.
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