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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Nah, this is a pretty good sub-forum for not having emotional roller coasters. Or maybe we all have just ridden this roller coaster enough...that we know that fluctuations in extended LR are just normal. Yes, the MJO almost always has a say. I think it was Flash who noted that when we are talking about the MJO...the weather pattern is usually not conducive for snow. LOL. So, I don't talk about it as much. Truly, I don't think winter has shown its hand quite yet. We are kind of in that transitional timeframe for a few weeks. I do like how the Weeklies look, but we will see if it is legit.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Interesting overnight developments in regards to Weeklies output. The transition week looks to be the week of Christmas. That could leave us with a seasonal or warm Christmas. It is after that that the longwave pattern is quite cold. Now, I must caution...modeling has (likely) already erroneously signaled that cold transition this winter for the Dec 14th time frame - technically, it could end up being correct. But that was shoulder season modeling, and maybe even it was an example of the cart getting in front of the horse - meaning sometimes modeling flips too quickly by a week or two. So, the expected turn to colder was pushed back. However, the transition begins about 7-10 days after LR extended modeling originally had it. Is it right? I am very cautiously optimistic. The actual pattern transition to an eastern trough sits in the 21-28 day range(with hints of the transition even prior to that as rains are now returning it appears - reference LC). So, there is some skill there, but models will often bust in that range. What is the biggest concern? The cold dumps West and holds and/or a strat warm is just creating havoc in LR modeling. I don't think that happens but the residual PDO (does anyone have the current, daily output?) and Nino climatology could do exactly that. I just don't think it holds in the West this time. The MJO would likely kick it out as it is primed for decent phases by mid winter. So we might be looking at our first cold shot of the winter. It might work something like this: Weeks 1-2 of December: warm Week 3: transitional phase Week 4: seasonably cold Weeks 1-2 of January: cold But all of that said, it would absolutely not surprise me to see all of that shifted back two weeks. I seems like it really wants to be warm IMBY during the New Year, and the second or third week of Jan is when the colder part of Nino winters hit. But the above is what modeling is generally showing right now. Is it right? I don't know, but I think it is a bit quick and maybe a bit extreme. And it is odd to see modeling so cold at this range. Time will tell. My recent experience w/ 10mb strat warms is that models will erroneously dump cold into the East, but revert to the West(that could be Nina climatology doing that during the past three years). But the general defaults of strat warming cold displacement are: 1. Eurasia 2. western US 3. EC in that order. New CANSIPS out in a couple of days....
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 938 SLP at 378 on the 18z GFS is worth your time. LOL!!!
  4. Carvers Gap
    The weeklies which run daily.
  5. Carvers Gap
    No idea if the Euro Weeklies are correct, but generally when an ensemble is that cold at range, reality is much colder...if it verifies. Bullseye is around NYE to the first week of January. Transition begins well before then.
  6. Carvers Gap
    3x NW flow type stuff and 1x WAA event on the 18z GFS. I think it really depends if that trough can back more to the west. If it does, we are in business. If it does not, nada.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yep. That is a decent run...lots of pieces on the board still.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Love the weather day...cold, blustery, and should get decently cold tonight and then temps maybe in the teens tomorrow night.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The good thing about the 12z suite is that I think winter might be tipping its hand in regards to storm track.....
  10. Carvers Gap
    MRX mentioned snow above 3k' I "think." The 12z Euro also is picking up on an active (mostly rainy) wx pattern during the next ten days. That storm around 170-180hr probably is going to have to be watched for frozen possibilities either with wrap around or with the storm itself. There may be some minor upslope potential following it. Still way out there, so lots of possibilities...but generally a slp tracking to our SE w/ marginal surface temps.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The ensembles aren't terrible at 500, but the source region is hot garbage. That said the 12z operational runs are decent....what I can't tell is if the operationals are trying to catch-up to the ensembles, or in a rare case...it is the other way around. LC had a great discussion on his Saturday night write-up and also a post earlier today. He is reasonably optimistic. He notes that changes(which were on the weeklies) can now be seen on operational and ensemble runs. But he says it will take some time for the NA air mass to cool back down. He did note that snowpack in Ontario and Quebec should build, and that would help place a semi-permanent trough over eastern NA by mid Jan. He cautions patience, and notes that the Nino should begin to decay which would produce a weak Nino by mid-winter. That would be huge. Of course, there are always the stinker analogs from the 90s to keep us grounded! Hope you had a great Thanksgiving. At least it looks like rains are returning at a fairly regular clip! Jeff's post earlier is prob on the money about the first half of Dec being warm....though I was not a huge fan of the '22 cold coming all at once reference. I hope that wasn't a hint. That was prob too much cold in my book - at least the wind chills anyway!!! If the winter is AN (temps) in eastern areas, the first two weeks of Dec will likely decide that. If it is just +3-5F, I think the rest of DJF will off set that with Feb being the tipping point for BN. As a whole, it would not surprise me to see the winter be slightly AN temp wise, but with seasonal snow for eastern areas. Again, the opposite of last winter is very much in play. But....no slam dunk!
  12. Carvers Gap
    And just like that, the 12z suite is a bit more interesting. The GFS has a wave coming out of the GOM around 180.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove mentioned on social media today that he felt like changes were coming after mid-month due to the high configuration in Canada, but that it would take some time. Honestly, to me things are on schedule if not a week or two ahead of schedule for Nino. The only thing that surprised me is that fall was so warm. Also, LC mentioned that the rain returning to the SE was a decent sign that the past regime is changing. Again, things look pretty benign in the short and medium range. I am less bullish on a cold Christmas, but that could easily change. I have seen LR modeling signal very cold Decembers only to have modeling flip after the first third of the month is over...and i have seen the opposite occur as well. And again, this is the time of year when modeling struggles as the turn to winter is going to be not surprisingly late. But man, it is cold out there today!!!!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Modeling has reverted to a bit of a "meh" look during the past couple of days. Again, as we depart shoulder season LR modeling can still fool us pretty easily in the future (both for the good and bad). This would definitely be a year I don't expect a fast start to winter. So, no harm, no foul....
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z NAM shows some light snow showers over the region after the front passes (north of I-40 and Plateau eastward, especially higher elevations).
  16. Carvers Gap
    Maybe it is just Friday night and the melatonin is making me feel good.....but I really like what I see in ensembles today. Lots of changes during the last 48 hours.....
  17. Carvers Gap
    Here is an interesting tidbit from the Euro Weeklies today. The snow mean for the foothills, NE TN Valley, and SW VA is 6-8" of snow for the 46d timeframe beginning today.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And I should add that NAOs are probably one of the most difficult features to predict. With the -QBO, we can kind of guess that it will be there from a seasonal perspective. but truly it gets squirrelly to nail down details. Last year, it often hooked into the SER which is not all that common but also not unprecedented. With the predisposition of the ENSO state for a SE trough, I think we avoid that for the most part this winter. Source regions are going to be key. Again, this has generally looked like a backloaded winter on seasonal modeling. A switch to a favorable pattern during any part of December is considered bonus bucks.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Overnight ensembles continue to advertise a decent pattern by mid month. Modeling has been bouncing around a lot, and I don’t trust them at this point. A -NAO is beginning to present itself consistently across global ensembles to varying degrees. Do we have a decent source region for the SE trough? IDK, it doesn’t look like it now. But that could change. Models originally had this pattern in the LR, lost it, and now it is back again. Shoulder season model watching is not for the faint of heart.
  20. Carvers Gap
    ...Or maybe I should say that the EPC control says, "Happy Thanksgiving!!!" Seriously, enjoy turkey day, everyone! The LR ensembles do appear to be hinting at a SE trough by mid-month. The GEFS is less enthused. EPS and GEPS are fairly textbook.
  21. Carvers Gap
    No idea what is going on with the EPF - pretty significant cold bias. Its 0z control run was fairly epic for the SE.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Tough to beat an opponent when they shoot 48 FTs. Officiating last night was egregious.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies this evening look stellar.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS was certainly a more active run....
  25. Carvers Gap
    I was in JC just before 5:00, and a bit of a rain squall came through. The interstate was a bear! Anyway, JC got a good amount of rain at that point. Honestly, I don't even remember the last time I have had to use my windshield wipers.
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