Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I am no expert on middle TN. I do think El Nino's tend to be somewhat below climatology the further one goes west in the forum. It does look like eastern areas should see some improvement during the next 30 days. The GOM is what will break the drought ultimately along w/ an active STJ. It will take some time to recover from this. Right now we need cooler weather and even marginal rain - that will end fire season in its tracks. What we don't need are hot days and low humidity like we have had. I think that is at an end.
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Hopefully, law enforcement will be in these areas looking for any mischief. Fire agencies and forestry folks are going to have to be on their toes.
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12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8. TIFWIW
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These discussions are awesome!
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That is an MVP post right there.
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Truly, the d8-16 range is pretty impressive at 500mb. Get your hands on all three global ensembles and see for yourself. It certainly could be a head fake, but that it how you draw it up.
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The 12z GEFS has moved to the 12z EPS/CMC solution. A robust cold delivery mechanism is modeled as being in place beginning just after Thanksgiving. NO IDEA if that verifies, but it is impressive for this early in the season.
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Massive amounts of HL blocking during that time frame. Euro has the same set-up. No idea where it goes after it traps a piece of the SPV...
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The 12z Euro looks more like the CMC at around 100hr than the GFS. That is a crazy looking pattern. Real feels would be well below zero. Again, I don't think that is right, but interesting to see this early. Let's see where the Euro goes.........
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Is that a piece of the SPV on the 12z CMC that pays us a visit? Again, I don't think that is right, but man...
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The 12z CMC is just insanely cold...low single digits the week after Thanksgiving. That can't be right. Looks like a feedback issue.
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I think we are gonna be good, but may have to wait a bit. The 18z GEFS did budge slightly towards the other global ensembles. I don't trust the Euro ensemble at this time of year though.
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Early winter season model war: 12z EPS/GEPS(very cold) vs 12z GEFS (initial cool down followed by warm-up) Vastly different after d8......
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Rain chances look to be increasing. I don’t think enough to break the drought, but considerably more than what we have had...which isn’t saying much.
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To further clarify, the Thanksgiving cold shot looks like a reality. Then there is a brief warm-up. The duration of that warm-up, and ensuing cold is what I am interested in. The 500mb pattern after that brief warm-up looks formidable. It might be a head fake as shoulder season modeling is infamous for bad takes in the LR.
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We've seen this head fake once already this year (trough in the East and ridge in the West). What we are seeing on modeling could also be a false start for winter which is highly common for Nino winters. BUT......ensemlbes (both weeklies and global ensembles) are fairly consistent in showing decently cold pattern during early December. My guess would be that it would ease up, and maybe we are just tracking a 5-7 day cold shot...but modeling is currently showing a longer duration cold event.
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The Euro Weeklies (control and mean) continue to depict a robust Nino pattern for the second week of December. Transitions occurs prior. 6" snow mean for NE TN and SW VA. Control has snow into New Orleans.
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The 12z CMC is flirting with single digits late in its run...and well, the 12z GFS is interesting.
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Almost seems like a false start to winter (7-10 days cold) next week, followed by a warm-up, and then Jeff's Nino pattern later in December. I could be badly wrong, but this is about as bullish as I can be about LR/seasonal modeling. Hopefully this isn't the "we've seen the last of summer" post I had back Augus...only to have summer end last week LOL
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No idea if the trend continues, but it has been a GOOD day re: modeling trends. Great post by Grit re: the PDO and El Nino
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Euro Weeklies this evening look really good as well - nice progression. @John1122 that cold shot during November next week is a good sign I think in regards to winter. Really, at this point I am trying to temper my enthusiasm. Let's see if modeling holds serve during the next couple of days. It would not surprise me to see us tracking at some point.
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18z GFS follows the Canadian for Thanksgiving.
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The 12z GEFS is not warm, and the run to run comparison over the SE is colder than 6z. During the years where I had to live in "cold weather exile" in central Florida for a couple of years during the early 80s, seems like there was a cold shot in Orlando about that time. Florida is a great place, but I like winter. But one of those odd memories from childhood makes me think I was having to wear a heavy coat in Florida around Thanksgiving.
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12z CMC sends some in the forum areas into the mid-teens. Both the 12z GFS and CMC to varying degrees(varying timing) are starting to sense that Alaskan ridge. That would be a freaking cold Turkey Trot to steal a line from the MA...but for real!!
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To clarify mentioning a lot is on the table.....that means anything from mild weather to cold. LR modeling is all over the place at times, and usually much more so at this time of year, even ensembles. This fall has been especially tough as modeling (and MRX mentioned this recently) has been consistently over-estimating rainfall in regions with drought.
