Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The 12z GFS (the right one this time!) has snow shower activity w/ the second cold shot - seems reasonable. The 12z CMC gets the gold star for trying to create mischief. The CFSv2 at lunch really wants to make December cold. I have December warm as part of my seasonal forecast ideas...but the CFS is giving me pause of late(seasonal run and weeklies run). I think a warm December still pans out, especially if November is cold. 09-10 beat the odds and went cold to start winter.....would be nice to see a repeat. Interestingly, the analogs for the dry Sept/Oct all started cold for winter. I have the analog reanalysis maps in the winter spec thread for those interested. Always, big weather changes ahead in about four days. Summer is likely done with maybe a slight gasp between cold shot one and two.
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I could say that I have special access, OR I could say that I accidentally thought I was looking at 12z(but it was actually 6z).
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The GFS has been signaling that November (at least the first half anyway) could just be one cold shot after another w/ warm interludes(albeit brief). The 12z run exemplifies this idea. Is it right? We will see.
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12z GFS agains toying with some mischief. I do wonder if the warm November signal is actually false. Again, this occurred a few years ago.
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The 12z GFS is a proper start to winter....or end to Fall...whichever you all prefer.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The accumulation map is insane. LOL. Hurricane turned NE blizzard. Let's just get to normal before the season starts!!!! -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
You should put that in the main thread. I was coming over to talk about that. That second amplification which modeling is sniffing out....could do that IF a tropical system timed-up with it. Looks a lot like Sandy. -
Some of those 90s Ninos - we were mowing in January here. Whew, my leaf changing is on or ahead of schedule. Leaves are pouring off the trees - making my yard look like crap! LOL. I wonder if your area has slowed due to you all developing drought earlier? I do think a back-loaded winter w/ a false, early start is likely. Seems like cold patterns tend to follow where it rains during fall - that is a Bastardi rule, but seems accurate. We had our first frost a couple of days ago. No freeze yet, but that looks on the way around Nov1.
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The 12z GFS has a second, stronger amplification after the early November one. That "could" (remember shoulder season modeling is super fickle) mean that we are looking at something more than a 3-4 day cold shot. The second amplification would drive the cold air far enough south that we would be tracking snow showers and flurries in the valleys.
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An interesting trend overnight on the American and Canadian ensembles...the cold is not confined to just one cold shot in early November. The GEFS is honking the most, but the Canadian is right there with it. The EPS sees it somewhat as well...but very washed out at this range. Rare to see d10-15 looking that chilly on an ensemble. I do think the GEFS is a little more accurate during shoulder season. If the cold persists longer than just the 3-4 day cold shot during early November....it will bear some similarities to the year I was insistent that November would be warm...and it was crazy cold. LR modeling had a very warm depiction and then busted hugely. John had a great analog set, and scored the cold month. @John1122 do you remember what year that was? Was it an El Nino year?
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Biggest fly in the ointment...all +PDOs.
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There may be zero correlation there...but just worth kicking around.
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Here is a composite of the three years DJF temps. Though October doesn't have as much correlation as November, one can wish right? The following winters' temp maps. The preceding Octobers' precip maps. The current drought map...
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MRX notes that September/October will likely be in the top two for min precip for that timeframe(Tri-Cities, Chattanooga, Knoxville). For kicks and giggles. Three El Ninos are in this list: 39-40', 58-59' and 63-64'. So, three of the top 5 driest years at TRI were El Ninos. Interestingly, the rest are La Nina. That(so many Ninos in the top 6 for Sept/Oct drought) is surprising. Given that often La Nina drives dry Falls in E TN, that was an eye opener. Now, I bet you are wondering what the winter of 63-64' looked like.......
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Looks like a classic, El Nino false start to winter (tad early) just after Halloween. Those are very common IMHO during El Nino Falls. It looks like the timing of the cold front is now slightly after Halloween. I don't know if that is good or bad...the later timing opens up chances for rain as flow will be southerly. But hopefully, trick-or-treaters get a good window. Overall, November warmth appears likely after that cold shot. By the second week of November I think we see aforementioned warm-up which will last through a good portion of December. Back loaded winters are a pain in the neck...but that is what is likely in play. I still am keeping an eye on the cold during early November(late October if timing reverts) for mischief in the foothills. The recent trend is for a more shallow and broad trough which is not a great set-up for mountain and early-season snow. It is not uncommon to see El Nino Falls where snow levels can drop to 2,000'. And one final note...shoulder season modeling is often just abysmal. So, be prepared for the weather to sometimes do exactly the opposite(of what is depicted) in the 2-4 week timeframes. While I "think" the second half of November will be warm....never know. Modeling is often as fickle as a phantom fair catch call which gets you placed on the three yard line instead of the 25.
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I think @John1122 talked about this earlier.... Looks like a strong cold shot around Halloween is on the table. I would suspect we see a strong snowstorm in the Plains which ushers in what could be temps that feel more like winter than fall. This is the type of air mass that "could" produce the first snow showers/flurries at lower elevations. Just last week, areas above 5,000' saw their first snowfall in the Smokies. The timing is still about ten days out, so proceed with caution. That said, ensembles and operationals are showing cold air dropping into Montana and the Dakotas....then southeastward. Not that the SER ever needs any help, but it still has plenty of punch due it not really being winter yet. However, with wavelengths changing-up....mischief could be afoot.
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GFS long range extended and Euo Weeklies...The EW's are 46 days out and GFS extended is similar.
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The extended long range stuff(40+day models) are into early December. The point of that comment is that we no longer have to rely. just on seasonal modeling which come in 30 day increments. It is highly unlikely any of those maps are right, but they do allow a glimpse into the world of large scale, 500mb geopotential daily progressions.
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Snow is falling on Mt Leconte this evening.
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The pattern change to a much cooler pattern is likely at hand. I think this lasts through early to mid-Nov, and then flips back warm for 6-8 week to close out the calendar year. While not exactly rocket science, that is fairly textbook Nino climatology if it happens in that order. My guess is the first winter time air masses will arrive mid-late January - nothing earth shattering. Again, I would not be surprised to see snow flying in the mountains early next week, but likely during the next 4-6 weeks.
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New drought map should be released at 8:30 this morning.
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14-15 looks like it bottomed out during winter at roughly the same time this one might. 09-10 looks like it paused during winter and then continued down. Are you seeing evidence of a head-fake? Just skimming the data sets, it looks like the QBO loses some downard trajectory between months 3-5 once it is negative, and then continues downward.
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Jeff, do you think the QBO can stay falling through winter? Looks like we are three months into the (negative side of things)drop and already at -13.58. Guessing we "bottom out" around January-ish as we hit negative during July. I am just using the 6-7 month rule from when it hits negative. To me, it starts coming up during Feb????
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I do believe the mountains have a decent chance of seeing snow above 5000' early next week on the GFS (12z and 18z). Some upslope rainshowers in the mid 30s. That often translates to frozen.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 1970s analogs are just awesome. The late 60s "I think" had a Thankgsiving snow or very early 70s. My parents talk about traveling home during that break and having a lot of trouble.
