Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Shoulder season modeling is whiplash city for me. LOL. The last week of November I think we have to watch. I agree w/ Cosgrove there, but I want to see the 12z ensemble suite before getting out over my skis. I like the GFS/GEFS during shoulder season, but it was on its own overnight. I can see us getting 1-2 weeks of cold later this month, and then it flipping warm.
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Will has the maps in the MA forum...
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I should note that the Euro seasonal looks like it is wrong at the surface (temps) for November, but its 500 maps look to be in line with other modeling. December is forecast to be very warm. Jan/Feb have a strong EPO/PNA ridge out West. No idea if it is right, but that is a textbook Nino progression. November is shown to be dry, but some relief for eastern areas of the forum during winter.
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Euro seasonals have been released. Jan and Feb look really good. Only thing that concerns me is that is is possibly going to initialize incorrectly with November.
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These posts are awesome. Thanks for the write-up.
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Rain along the equatorial dateline is a great MJO signal for this area. That has been missing for the last three winters. It really impacts E TN in a negative way re: snow.
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Bone dry here, but not near as bad as other areas. I was flipping through modeling this morning. There is a lot of spread in regards to how much rain is due to fall. Some have nothing, and others have 7-8" worth of rainfall. I would be fine with a blend!!!!
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Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming. The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold. GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks. My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season. Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it. His analogs have been showing it. He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong. The reason I say that? When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not. Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right. A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way. For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time. So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold! I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month!
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@nrgjeff that is the only post you're are allowed to make for November. LOL
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This is what happens when Kansas beats Oklahoma. Things just go to crap - the universe is out of balance.
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I don't think that has happened here to clarify. But I know we sync with Google....so, I am usually super careful if things get too dry. That's just me, and maybe that caution is warranted on my part. Honestly, it is such a big story right now...talking about it is likely unavoidable so I don't want folks to think it would be frowned upon if discussed.
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Like IT@G’s thoughts, LC doesn’t feel like this is a normally behaving El Niño. I need to go back and re-read it. I was in a hurry when I read it. I am not big on a cold December, but there are a cluster of El Niño’s which have cold December’s...and some of those are the record dry September/October analogs. Those analogs aren’t a great match for one reason or another, but I found the possible correlation interesting.
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I think you nailed it when you said that active hurricane season is wrecking havoc on modeling and the EC wx pattern. I think that is more likely a product of a warm Atlantic basin than it is a Nina hangover. That we have not had more landfalling hurricanes is probably more a product of Nino climatology. NE TN is a place where, once drought is established, it can be very difficult to break...same thing re: a flooding pattern. Cosgrove has a great write-up for winter...maybe implied that by late November we maybe head towards a more traditional Nino pattern. Though he seems to think this will be a less traditional Nino winter where December might turn colder than many think - that is off the top of my head so anyone feel free to correct that if it isn't correct.
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Southwest Virginia is dealing with this tonight. Again, I hate to say much else. Scannerfood on FB is a good follow for local coverage.
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Yeah, I am definitely concerned. I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought. I know you are careful as well. I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts. The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).
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Drought breeds more drought. That much I am certain of.... Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos. My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread. I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino. Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of La Niña (edit), is not always La Nina. Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI. If anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit. Lots of AN SSTs. The amount of rainfall from this past April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of last winter. As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers. If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't. It was rainy and BN for months on end. Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought? Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong. What is your reasoning behind that? I would be interested to know. Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out. What did you think? Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression. Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown. Those analogs may or may not be right.
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Does anyone have any of the November seasonal maps that they are willing to share? WxBell has not updated, and I haven't browsed Twitter this week. Always great to have Ohio people passing through! We have family near Canton.
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Only about two more weeks, then the first winter thread goes up. Be thinking about whether you are called to fire up that thread....bring some good mojo. Whoever started the 14-15 thread, that may be who it needs to be.
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New seasonal models begin to roll tomorrow.
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Jeff is handing out Halloween candy like he owns stock in Target!
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LR modeling really likes the idea of slp feeding into a strong cold front. The 12z Euro is another variation.
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The Euro control was super similar. It actually had two clippers - LOL.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, the 12z GFS is maybe GIF worthy?
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I think better for this end of the forum. The 12z GFS was interesting for sure.
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Thanks for the update! How do you like that service(models? indices?)? Very cool. Very sharp, near-reversal. I wonder if it descends again, or this is part of a pattern changer per term? Neutral is tolerable.
