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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Early start to winter in the Mountain West looks on track. The first snows of the season for MT and WY are now within 200hours. While that likely means another significant warm-up here(ridge to balance out the trough), that does mean that the summer pattern is breaking down. Now, how long does that trough hold in the West? IDK. I would think general warmth here will last into that second climatological tropics peak, and then rapidly transition to a cool fall here. Modeling is flip-flopping all over the place right now - not unusual for shoulder season. We should see some brief cool shots in the valley, but modeling (operationals and ensembles) are depicting AN temps after d10+. Fortunately, AN temps during late September are not the subject of as much misery as early August. So, maybe a few days of 90s still left in the mix...but generally a seasonal to slightly AN temp pattern upcoming once the next ten days are over. I do think that we see a sharp turn to colder sooner than later...though modeling doesn't have that depicted yet. Fall during El Nino years can flip on a dime.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I can feel the positive vibes about winter, Jeff!!!! j/k of course... Have a great weekend, man!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Is that his prelim forecast? I haven't seen an official from them, but that doesn't mean it isn't there. I haven't looked closely. Maybe it was on a video? That would be a very aggressive forecast for a five month window. I could see maybe mid-Jan to mid-March making a run at that. I am less enthused about Nov/Dec...but, LR modeling doesn't support my warm Nov/Dec idea. However, w/ so many BIG warm-ups during our recent winters....anything BN would be a score in my book.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Didn't change much from what I posted last month. Troughs and ridges are in the same spots. Pac trough is less. Trough over the SE is slightly more. Otherwise, cut and paste-a. Slightly BN temps for Jan/Feb. Source regions are going to be a problem IF the model is correct. BUT when seasonals show BN temps at this range on the Euro, it is worth noting. It has a big time warm bias at that range IMHO. 500 maps are generally my go-to. Temp maps are less dependable IMO.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I agree. It seems to place the AN/BN temps in the right place, but yeah....extremes on both ends and sometimes laughably so.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Great find. The model has obviously been too extreme w/ warm temps - good catch by you. What would be interesting is if it is too warm with those cooler temps as well! Could be an "extremes bias" or it could just have a warm bias. If those temps are biased warm - some cold air is on the way. But I am like you, it is prob overdoing it. Nice to see those temps showing up. Our leaves here have started changing. I am ready for some cooler weather. I know fall athletes and band members are surely ready for some cooler Friday nights!
  7. Carvers Gap
    John is on the money w/ the GFS flipping to some colder solutions in the d10-15. For the first time this year, fall is now showing on modeling for this area. Chilly!
  8. Carvers Gap
    I think the tropics are like a wrecking ball outside of 7 days. That is a lot of compact energy which can completely upend a weather pattern, and modeling is understandably slow in being able to catch trends from that.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The tropics are creating some wild solutions. Went from the furnace to the fridge. Generally, it is my experience that if the tropical system gets close, the sinking air near the outer edges of the storm creates very hot and humid conditions here. OTH, if the storm is offshore(and powerful), it drags a lot of air from Quebec region, and things cool off. All of that said, there are some legit cold fronts showing up in the long range. I don't think we have seen the last of AN temps. General pattern is cold air, followed by very warm temps....wash, rinse, repeat. So far, the LR looks like a typical fall pattern of back and forth temps. Models have backed off the crazy warm temps from a week ago. What once looked like very warm temps this weekend has moderated to a forecast which is warm, but not atypical for early fall.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the ridge wants to go back West which is a continuation of the pattern we have been in since early June. The real question I have is whether a ridge can belly into the Upper South under a shallow eastern trough. That would continue warmer weather after an upcoming cool down. I do think the tropics are wrecking havoc on modeling over the EC right now. That is not surprising, but it creates model chaos.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Has summer just ended? That is the question that I have after looking at modeling during the past couple of days. Those "few straggler runs" from a few days ago which depicted the trough heading West have become more numerous. BN temps are become more prominent with each passing day beginning by Sat/Sun this weekend.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it should set the stage for some decent winters in the future. Agree.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 30mb QBO is now officially negative...
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yep, good find. The new, seasonal CANSIPS maps which came out today are a pretty big step towards a very warm early start to fall - torch for September and then a very slow, gradual decent back to normal by late December. JFMA looks like money at 500 and on the surface. Good to see that continue to be signaled by that model. Best pattern seems signaled for the last of Jan through mid-March. Kind of looking at Flash's list above, I am a HUGE fan of 15-16 for NE TN. NOT saying that is what is going to happen, I just like that analog year, because of how much it snowed IMBY. I think we see El Nino maybe hold through summer, and I think analogs which continue the Nino are most useful. The El Nino analogs I am most interested in are the ones which have an extended bout of La Nina just prior. You hear me reference SST gradient. That is not my idea. It is one of the guys in New England (Typhoon maybe). That gradient between the Nino and the rest of the ocean needs to be sharp - not washed out. I think we get that this year after the triple or quadruple dip Nina that we just had. And add in a falling QBO to go with that. ***Those analogs will be very few, but those are the ones we need IMHO.***
  15. Carvers Gap
    77 here in Kingsport w/ Idalia funneling lots of cool air down the eastern seaboard. Last day of August is a beaut. We may end up a fraction AN for the month. Daytime highs will finish slightly BN, but overnight lows have been warm and muggy on several occasions - creating slightly AN temps for the overall lows. Either way. Good run for August.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS and GEFS do present long term hope w/ the ridge retrograding into the West. That is about 14 days out, and would effectively end summer here if legit, and produce an early fall pattern. Still warm, but not fiery furnace hot. That isn't the first run where that has shown up. It would be about right to have a cool down then followed by one last transient ridge(typical second tropical peak stuff).....
  17. Carvers Gap
    The GFS has been TERRIBLE with over estimating temps - you have been 100% correct on that. Your money is safe!!! One thing I am watching is whether we get another coastal about that day8-12 range and it pulls down a bunch of cooler air. The tropics are really playing havoc with modeling in the middle and long ranges. I have seen a few outlier runs during the last 24 hours that pull the ridge back west - something to watch going forward.
  18. Carvers Gap
    You can almost take it to the bank....when heat builds over Texas, it is going to find its way into the TN Valley whether it is summer or winter. It is coming east. Just hoping the tropics reset the pattern. There are some model solutions that bring a tropical storm back into the Virginias (maybe a ghost storm)?
  19. Carvers Gap
    IDK, the GFS looks like it has some all time record highs between the 9th and 12th - 110 some locals. Not sure I believe that though. Looks like the model is dealing with pretty significant feedback issues regarding temps.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I am only looking at the 12z CMC for the 12z suite. I have thrown out all others as outliers.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The good thing is that I think this ends as hurricane season ends...maybe VERY sharply changing to cold. Nino years tend to build a ridge over the EC which allows for more landfalling hurricans/TS systems. Endless summer is on tap...I think we probably see a cold shot mid-September or just after...a last gasp of heat...and then true fall. The West could see winter start early. They better get all the snow they can get before the winter pattern sets in......
  22. Carvers Gap
    Gonna have to get this thread up to date w a Cobra Kai gif.....Gotta bring in the younger generation, so they too can enjoy the pink and ember hues of AN temps on fall modeling. Summer ain't done yet...
  23. Carvers Gap
    Western areas of the forum have not been as fortunate....dewpoints + temp = misery.
  24. Carvers Gap
    John is right about that and called it early on...modeling has over estimated the heat here. Originally, pretty sure we had highs in the mid upper 90s....We might hit those for two days. They will be doozies w/ real feels between 100-102. We are still below normal for the month and might finish that way given the temporary cool temps next week. September looks AN though. Let's hope modeling is missing the pattern change. If anything, at least daytime norms begin to drop sharply by mid-month. Hoping John gets the sweep!
  25. Carvers Gap
    I had no idea weeks 4-6 were that bad! LOL!!! Kind of guessed they were bad, but that is wild.
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