Carvers Gap

Yeah, I have been following Keith today. Looks like a “big” bunch made it to lap 4. Fun run complete, and now it gets down to business. Haven’t had a finisher during the last few years. And yeah, the jaw is thorn city. Not for me.

@Holston_River_Rambler, you kick around in Frozen Head. How tough is that course?

Yeah, I can’t decide if we want it flat or not. The GFS at 0z was a strong coastal. 6z was flat. The trend overnight has been generally weaker with the exception of the 0z GFS run. We have seen those storms do exactly that at this range...and a three run trends takes it to St Louis regardless of blocking. Looks to me like a hp is suppressing the track. We do prob want to see it bounce back by tomorrow morning.

Barkley Marathon is under way. Man, that was a cold night for those runners!!!!

Jan/Feb were base warm patterns with cold fronts which rolled through - notably the ice storm. Current pattern appears to be base cold w/ warm-ups in between. Just looking at LR modeling....looks like wave after wave of cold. If we get lucky, the MJO will rotate into warm phases by April(before coming around again into cold phases) and give us a respite. Have I said how much I really don't like cold during April? I have my limits as to when I like it freezing cold...April is pushing those limits.

The 12z Euro is on board for Tuesday/Wednesday. Temps are marginal, but beautiful comma head. Mountains/Plateau would get smashed. I would assume the cold that would follow that would be sharp.

The 12z CMC has the Jeff setup...slp heading into a marginal air mass. Higher elevations would score with that.

Bout where we want it at this range given seasonal “send it to Indy” trends.

If it had trended west even in the slightest, I would say the GFS is correcting westward again. I think it will trend north and west. We just want that to hold off for another 36-48 hours before making that trend.

Good look and still to the SE. We take.

Just looking at the 12z roll....it that doesn’t go big it has the chance to in future runs.

Sitting in JC at the moment. A pretty heavy snow shower is rolling through at the moment. Welcome to spring.

If the Apple app is correct (best science I can muster this morning at short range), we have lows in the 20s for five of the next six nights. If I am wrong....blame the Apple.

I don’t think it was overly cold here either due to wind and cloud cover. Tonight is prob going to be the roughest IMBY re: freeze. The wind chills are pretty sharp currently though.

Yeah, I think the air mass is marginal for middle of next week. Time of day might account for some differences in precip type. I haven’t look at the storm for more than 2-3 minutes. LOL.

Bonus snow! Wind chills this morning are around 25. It feels like the middle of winter. Our spring sports groups were sent inside yesterday by graupel. I am pretty sure I haven’t felt it this cold since December....LOL.

I think the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe next week has some marginal interest for me. As for the Weekend...looks like rain chasing cold to me. Maybe the mountains? That said, MRX does have snow listed for MBY Sat morning (light variety that doesn’t accumulate...if even that). I always think spring has surprises. TRI is seeing fairly steady and light snow shower activity this morning. I wasn’t expecting that or the snow yesterday. Never know!

Re: Tuesday system....The odd thing about the GFS...it spots systems from way out...then trends them sharply westward. The Euro and CMC have been 24-36 hours behind its trends. It has taken the Euro to school during Feb. Oddly, the Euro has had a recent progressive bias recently. Right now I prefer the GFS at all ranges. We are still at the point for next Tuesday where the operational is still pretty much a single member of the ensemble. 48 more hours and then we can talk seriously about it. I don’t have high confidence in any model seven days out...to the good or bad. As Jeff noted yesterday...there is one idea that the storm gets suppressed and another that comes north into a marginal air mass. To me, the only differences in tracks of the 0z Euro and 6z GFS was precip type. But again, as new data is inputed...those solutions will most certainly change.

This weekend I am less enthused about. The Euro does support the GFS for next Tuesday. That said....it is seven days out and things could change, and highly likely will.

Spitting snow here in Kingsport this morning.

The NWS point-and-click has light snow chances for my area Fri night and Sat AM. The 6z GFS shows that as well for NE TN - unrelated to the post above. The post above is related to next Tuesday - LONG way to go there.

The 6z GFS has it again for far eastern areas. The Euro is weaker, but has a front end thump for the eastern valley. Really, until it gets closer, I don't have much else to add. The 6z GFS puts 1-2 feet in eastern mountain communities of TN and western NC gets hammered..

The 18z GFS has the storm yet again at 192.

Quick ensemble peek...cold should be the dominant air mass with periodic ridges rolling through, notably a ridge around the 25th w/ more cold following.

Sleet/graupel is falling here in Kingsport. I will record a trace of frozen precip IMBY for the month to this point. Amazing that is was in the 70s and 80s just a short time ago.