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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    WSWs posted for West Virginia? Am I seeing that right? Upper Peninsula in Michigan as well(less newsworthy at that latitude).....May 2nd.
  2. Carvers Gap
    April finished only 0.8F above normal after two days at 85+. Overnight lows were actually below normal which is a testament to the number of days without rainfall - only 2.64" of rain for the entire month of April at TRI. Dry spells equal cold nights quite often here in NE TN. The La Nina hangover is upon us. Hopefully, we see rainfall pick-up by mid-summer. The Mountain West has really warmed up as places in western WY and NE Utah set records for seasonal snowfall.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Snow fell at 5,500' last night(just a dusting on LeConte). Wind chills were projected by the crew at the Lodge to be near 0 overnight.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Whew. Going for record highs on Friday. Not a fan. Looking forward to next week.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I am moderately concerned of a spin-up on the EC(tropical or hybrid). If that occurs, it could usher very cold air west of the Apps. It is probably a red herring in modeling, but it has my attention. My stuff is going in the ground during the last week of April if warm temps continue. Ground temps, even with a cold snap, are unexpectedly decent. The lack of rain has helped warm up temps. So, in terms of frost, I doubt NE TN has seen its last. I am not even sure I have seen the last flake of snow IMBY which seems surreal given the late June temps we have had here! Again, likely warmth continues...but the spin-up is the concern.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Prelim winter 23-24 will be possibly a wall-to-wall torch in terms of temps. Nino outlooks are more robust than they were a few months ago for next winter. Snowfall is a big question as moderate to strong Nino winters can still have big coastals. That idea is dependent on the Nino rising to moderate-strong levels. If it is weak-moderate(I think unlikely), then we are in business. Saving grace might be a failing QBO........
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a return to more seasonable conditions next weeks. Summer is just around the corner.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Feels like mid-summer today!
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro and CMC both are showing a cut-off low over the TN valley next week. It might be feedback, but that is cold, nasty weather right there. The GFS does not have it. It has had the hot hand lately...so let's see where it goes. Again, this is NOT a winter wx post. The default for all posts until next October is rain(for those new to the site). I will state otherwise if snow is in the outlook for the valleys. That is the last caveat re: winter wx.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Gusts recorded to 61mph in TRI....every bit of that. I was driving down a four lane, and a wind gust hit a gravel driveway on the other side of the four way. It sounded like someone was throwing rocks against my car. We had to stop in Colonial Heights and help get a decent sized tree out of the road which had landed on a young woman's car. Fortunately, she was ok...but her car was a mess. The hood and windshield completely caved in. She was very fortunate.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS and EPS are showing some signs of trough amplification around the 11th of April. NO - I am not talking a snowstorm. Certainly snow showers in the mountains are not unusual for that date. At this point for those following weather with us during the "snow off season," (which is most of the year)we actually talk about weather totally unrelated to wintry stuff. For me, I watch the weather at this time of year in order to spot freezes/frosts in advance. I wasn't paying attention earlier this week, and had frost on some summer plants (new grape vines) which I was hardening off. Grape vines will survive the winter here, but those new leaves (on transplants) don't like frost. So far, so good. The leaves appeared to have survived. FWIW, I still have plants in our landscape which are shedding leaves after the December cold.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS is definitely depicting warm conditions for most of its run - finally spring appears that it will take hold!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Modeling doubling down that cooler than normal temps return for April after this current warm-up, and then one additional warm-up which will follow the next cool down.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I mowed the yard for the first time today where it actually needed it. I did some clean-up during late Feb where I mowed it in order to get up leaves and twigs after the big winds. I still have some dormant areas in the yard. Hollies are still dropping leaves due to December cold. My patio peach lost its blooms as did some of my blueberries(unfortunately) due to the recent cold wave. Yards should be ready to take-off now(if they haven't already). I need about 4-6 weeks of warm temps in order for the garden to be ready. Still looking at a very late planting for it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps. TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN. We had one day which was ~18F BN. I welcome the warmth of the next few days. I need to get some garden/yard work done. It is time for spring! Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up. Modeling has been stellar. The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.
  16. Carvers Gap
    If they have a normal summer, the ski slopes may not lose their snow.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I think I mentioned that earlier in an post, I certainly would think so by Friday afternoon even. Record highs possible tomorrow and Friday. Pretty amazing to see the first week’s(of March) departures erased though. I am placing the above departures in the thread for future reference. Models have done exceptionally well so far. They nailed the cold shot, and they also had a decent signal for the warm weather coming up. Yesterday was also BN as well which is not reflected on the chart above.
  18. Carvers Gap
    TRI so far for the month.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Minus 1-2 more cold shots, I think we can finally see spring revealing itself in both the MJO and some LR modeling. The CPC is going warm for April, and I welcome the change! The 6-8 day and 8-14 day forecasts are now warm on the CPC sites. I think we still see some sharp downturns, and I am not quite as bullish on the warmth....but it has to warm-up at some point, right? Bring on spring...because summer lurks right around that corner. Spring may be short this year!
  20. Carvers Gap
    They can just use spy balloon data as backup.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies Update: Nice warm-up later this month. Looks like another cool down right after the first of April...well, meaning it might get downright cold. Again, this is the pits for trying to grow in the garden. First week of May is frost free here....I bet we get frosts well into May w/ this crazy pattern.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Well. So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?
  23. Carvers Gap
    I read where Mt Leconte dropped to 1 degree F.
  24. Carvers Gap
    TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1. February had an average of 59.1. For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average. Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal. Our high was 38 degrees. The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's. Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable. The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March. I have yet to start my tomatoes. No way they will go in the ground by late April. I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps. That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.
  25. Carvers Gap
    After today, March's average temp will likely be colder than February's. It won't likely last, but that is pretty cool(literally).
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