Carvers Gap

When the MJO hits phase one at that extreme, I would suspect we see potential for a severe cold shot. I don’t see that on modeling yet, but that is how I interpret that. We did a phase 6-7 like that (off the chart) a season or two ago...that was extreme warmth.

Cold and suppressed.

John, I always thought Nino winters were bigger for Mammoth(transition there has occurred it appears). I am not sure all of that snow melts this summer. If they get a big Nino winter(looks likely) next season, they could end-up w/ a seasonal snowpack that stick around for a couple of seasons. At the very least, the snow pack will likely sticks around until August or September.

Kuiper Belt.

I can't even imagine 700" of snow. That is incredible. I saw a ton of snow at Crater Lake last year. They had a building buried to the second floor in early June. What it took to get to that point is astounding. Thanks for the link. I will give it a look.

My take on the 12z GFS....I am must going to enjoy the next few days of basking in early spring weather, and pretend it is gonna last all month.

Just looking at the 12z GFS. The "warm-up" after the initial cold shot might not actually be a SER. It looks to me like a chinook is over the southern Rockies, and that air will mix into the pattern. Now, if you follow severe wx...that could pop some big storms. You can see the next cold shot cutting off that chinook. March is rarely boring.

John, what is your link on that? Sounds cool. Yeah, I agree. I would like to see one of those big snows as well. I was fortunate to see a Pacific gale last summer(no snow), but it was impressive. Mammoth is near and dear to us for two reasons....snow and it is where Olympic distance runners train during summer(my family has runners...not Olympians!). I was looking at Euro seaonsals...I am not sure all of that snow melts this summer there.

45-50 for highs w/ the sun shining is no problem. It is those evening/night soccer games, baseball games, and track meets which are gonna be dicey, especially if raining as you note. Deterministic and ensembles are cold this morning. Those nice, deep purple colors for temperature departures are back - and well inside of day 10. I will enjoy the cold snap when it arrives. But trust me, if it is blunted, I won't be complaining. This weekend should be seasonal. Next week, modeling drops the hammer. Again, for me, the question isn't really if the cold arrives...it is the duration and intensity of the cold. FWIW, temps IMBY look particularly cold for Tuesday-Friday of next week. Modeling has been focusing on those dates for weeks. It would not surprise me to see lows in the upper teens(if clear and not windy) at some point w/ highs in the upper 30s/low 40s. That is going to be a shock to the system.

Whatever is 5-12F BN around the 15th. I think WJHL warned everyone this AM about the return of much colder temps.

The Euro Weeklies, which I thought were derived from a warm run, basically maintain the upcoming blocking pattern from March10-April10....and I HOPE it is warm from the on!!!!!!!!

Broke towards cold after being in conflict with its own ensemble for 10-11th.

Pretty big changes by the 12z GFS. Interesting.

The MJO is almost off the charts in phase 8. Crazy look this morning.

Of note, the 0z Euro control does continue its recent daily tradition of a NE TN paste storm around mid-month. The operational was close. Nothing set in stone. Again, higher elevations, SE KY, the Plateau, SW VA, NE TN, and W NC....have better climatology for spring snow.

I should add that medium-range modeling is signaling a higher elevation, upslope snow event around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on.

Cold weather looks on schedule. For now, we will say 10-14 days in duration. This is going to likely come in waves as the spring season is going to send warmth north after each cold air mass grows stale. As I mentioned before, it will be interesting to see if the cold can erase the AN departures of the first few days. Again, the real question for me is whether this cold snap is a long term pattern change at our latitude. I lean 55/45 that it is, maybe 60/40. I do think that the air mass will be less extreme than originally modeled, but still likely to be very cod. Honestly, I am not a huge fan of winter in March. So, I will gladly take the less extreme version if that is the hand we are dealt. The coldest days could be 8-12 degrees BN. Temps should be around normal by the weekend w/ next week likely being the coldest (roughly around the 15th). Winter wx is not off the table, but cold rain is more likely!

From the MRX afternoon disco: Midweek another system will begin moving across the center of the country, and increasing moisture return brings richer moisture into our region. This equates to low rain chances on Wednesday in the southern valley and then more widespread on Thursday afternoon. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light but steady from Thursday going into Saturday, so no impacts are expected. Early look at storm total rainfall is a half inch to an inch. Differing guidance solutions over placement of the rain and evolution of this weekend`s synoptic pattern change leave plenty of uncertainty. However, there is building confidence in cooler weather and frost/freeze issues beginning at the end of this period.

Man. LOL.

I think the atmosphere is starting to reflect Nino even now. Great stuff as usual, Jax.

The mid-term cold is less of a question for me know. The 500mb is on schedule to change as are temps around the 11th. The can kicking has been hours instead of days/weeks. The question for me is whether this is a 10-14 day cold shot or a true 4-6 pattern shift. I lean slight towards long term pattern shift. Why? Nino climatology supports the colder SE for spring. The CPC maps have changed little from the ones I posted earlier. So, the cold has support from pro forecasters and not folks who do this as a hobby. I wish I had better news for people who need a warmer spring, including me. Maybe that will change, and we will see a balance of warm and cold says vs base cold.

The 6z GFS looks like a winter time pattern with HL blocking. If I didn’t know the date, I would be more excited as I know seasonal climatology is going to be fighting us. That said, it is worth nothing that March can bring surprises and storms often over perform compared to modeling output. I would be pretty fired up if I lived in tbe mountains. Models still look solidly on board for a 10+ day period of cold whining just before mid month. It could be longer than that. Modeling has tended to overestimate staying power for cold during the past several months, so I am starting with that timeframe. The potential is there that this pattern is base cold w/ warm interludes for much of the second half of March through mid-April. This is a pretty big pattern shakeup at 500mp. If this was mid-winter, this would be the golden ticket....but again, seasonal climatology is going to fight this every step of the way(must be important if I say that twice. LOL). Still this is likely going to be a sharp change from the early summer temps that we have experienced. If a storm cranks, a killing freeze is easily on the table. As we noted earlier...whatever is most miserable is likely.

That is the driest fall I ever remember. You could have walked across the North Fork of the Holston up here w/out getting your feet wet. (Today it is nearly at flash flood stage). I was sitting at a youth basketball game, and someone told me Gatlinburg had embers dropping into the middle of the city. I thought, "No way." I hustled home and watched Knoxville TV channels that night. I was just stunned.

For those willing to do some digging, the Euro control run at 0z....that was interesting.

If you are here looking for a professional forecast, I suggest you have come to the wrong place. If you are not laying out your own ideas and just going, “I told you so,” you have definitely come to the wrong place. But if you are here to learn, to take risks, have fun , and enjoy weather...you have come to the right place. This is a place where we risk being wrong in order to get better - that is the only way to get better. The “I told you so” stuff needs to go in banter. Otherwise, we are going to have unreadable threads - go look at the MA. As for the cold, still looks highly likely as the long wave pattern which will deliver it looks reasonably locked in. The question is which storm brings it? At 18z, the GFS cut the storm on the 10th too far to the West. It jumped on the next system. IMO, this is just a matter of “when” and not “if.” You won’t hear me say that often. The December cold had the same issue. And that can all change as we don’t control any aspect of the weather. We can only predict. Shoulder seasons are easily the most difficult times for modeling. I won’t be posting a ton today as Saturday has its own responsibilities for me. So, don’t mistake my absence for a change in tune.