Carvers Gap

Prelim winter 23-24 will be possibly a wall-to-wall torch in terms of temps. Nino outlooks are more robust than they were a few months ago for next winter. Snowfall is a big question as moderate to strong Nino winters can still have big coastals. That idea is dependent on the Nino rising to moderate-strong levels. If it is weak-moderate(I think unlikely), then we are in business. Saving grace might be a failing QBO........

Looks like a return to more seasonable conditions next weeks. Summer is just around the corner.

Feels like mid-summer today!

The 0z Euro and CMC both are showing a cut-off low over the TN valley next week. It might be feedback, but that is cold, nasty weather right there. The GFS does not have it. It has had the hot hand lately...so let's see where it goes. Again, this is NOT a winter wx post. The default for all posts until next October is rain(for those new to the site). I will state otherwise if snow is in the outlook for the valleys. That is the last caveat re: winter wx.

Gusts recorded to 61mph in TRI....every bit of that. I was driving down a four lane, and a wind gust hit a gravel driveway on the other side of the four way. It sounded like someone was throwing rocks against my car. We had to stop in Colonial Heights and help get a decent sized tree out of the road which had landed on a young woman's car. Fortunately, she was ok...but her car was a mess. The hood and windshield completely caved in. She was very fortunate.

The GEFS and EPS are showing some signs of trough amplification around the 11th of April. NO - I am not talking a snowstorm. Certainly snow showers in the mountains are not unusual for that date. At this point for those following weather with us during the "snow off season," (which is most of the year)we actually talk about weather totally unrelated to wintry stuff. For me, I watch the weather at this time of year in order to spot freezes/frosts in advance. I wasn't paying attention earlier this week, and had frost on some summer plants (new grape vines) which I was hardening off. Grape vines will survive the winter here, but those new leaves (on transplants) don't like frost. So far, so good. The leaves appeared to have survived. FWIW, I still have plants in our landscape which are shedding leaves after the December cold.

The 6z GFS is definitely depicting warm conditions for most of its run - finally spring appears that it will take hold!

Modeling doubling down that cooler than normal temps return for April after this current warm-up, and then one additional warm-up which will follow the next cool down.

I mowed the yard for the first time today where it actually needed it. I did some clean-up during late Feb where I mowed it in order to get up leaves and twigs after the big winds. I still have some dormant areas in the yard. Hollies are still dropping leaves due to December cold. My patio peach lost its blooms as did some of my blueberries(unfortunately) due to the recent cold wave. Yards should be ready to take-off now(if they haven't already). I need about 4-6 weeks of warm temps in order for the garden to be ready. Still looking at a very late planting for it.

Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps. TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN. We had one day which was ~18F BN. I welcome the warmth of the next few days. I need to get some garden/yard work done. It is time for spring! Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up. Modeling has been stellar. The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.

If they have a normal summer, the ski slopes may not lose their snow.

I think I mentioned that earlier in an post, I certainly would think so by Friday afternoon even. Record highs possible tomorrow and Friday. Pretty amazing to see the first week’s(of March) departures erased though. I am placing the above departures in the thread for future reference. Models have done exceptionally well so far. They nailed the cold shot, and they also had a decent signal for the warm weather coming up. Yesterday was also BN as well which is not reflected on the chart above.

TRI so far for the month.

Minus 1-2 more cold shots, I think we can finally see spring revealing itself in both the MJO and some LR modeling. The CPC is going warm for April, and I welcome the change! The 6-8 day and 8-14 day forecasts are now warm on the CPC sites. I think we still see some sharp downturns, and I am not quite as bullish on the warmth....but it has to warm-up at some point, right? Bring on spring...because summer lurks right around that corner. Spring may be short this year!

They can just use spy balloon data as backup.

Euro Weeklies Update: Nice warm-up later this month. Looks like another cool down right after the first of April...well, meaning it might get downright cold. Again, this is the pits for trying to grow in the garden. First week of May is frost free here....I bet we get frosts well into May w/ this crazy pattern.

Well. So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?

I read where Mt Leconte dropped to 1 degree F.

TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1. February had an average of 59.1. For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average. Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal. Our high was 38 degrees. The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's. Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable. The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March. I have yet to start my tomatoes. No way they will go in the ground by late April. I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps. That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.

After today, March's average temp will likely be colder than February's. It won't likely last, but that is pretty cool(literally).

I had to double check the thermometer this morning when I went out to run. It looked warm from inside the house. It was not, however, warm outside. I was about to freeze. I had no idea it was that cold. Wind chills at TRI are 19. Crossville and Wise have wind chills in the single digits. It is snowing in the mountains.

Clinch Mountain, just south of Gate City, still has snow on the south facing slopes. Crazy. It is not warm today. That is for sure. The Euro Weeklies show a nice warm-up followed by more cold...then a back-and-forth pattern of ridge/trough ensues. I don't think we have seen the last of winter cold...but we are close to shutting the door on it. If you like warm springs, the MJO has not been our friend.

Ha! Ha! The center of that bubble is over my house! I had a couple of inches of snow this winter. I won’t miss the pattern of the last three winters - especially the Jan and Feb part!

Indeed the average temp for March is only 0.4 higher than the totality of Feb so far. Today may well bring us below Feb's average at TRI. I can't remember who asked that, but there you go.

So far, the last 5 days have yielded -7.34F BN at TRI. The past two days have been roughly -13F BN. We had one day where we didn't make it out of the 30s for max temps. Lowest temp during this time frame was 20F. A trace of snow has been recorded at the airport. I had a trace of frozen precip at my place during two of those days. Modeling has been exceptional with this time frame. The mountains above 5,000' are snow capped in NE TN. The freeze from the past two nights has damaged blooming plants for sure. Lots of brown buds on pear and peach trees unfortunately. As for the LR forecast, more cold through the 25th. Then, I think we see some moderation towards the very end of this month and early April. After that, the MJO is showing signs of looping back into colder phases after its tour through the colder phases ends(skipping warmer phases). The warm-up later this month should correspond to the loop into the COD and maybe some brief time in 7 before potentially looping back into 8. El Nino springs are a bear. I wouldn't be surprised for the mountains to get more snow and for the NE areas of the forum to see more snow showers at some point. As for next weeks system, just isn't organized on modeling and that has been a clear trend. Let's see if modeling gets it back today or overnight. The GFS was a bit more organized(but slightly off the coast ) at 6z...but it might be over-amped. Otherwise, probably time to bid farewell to that long shot.