Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,695

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Agree. The timing of it for this winter, is optimum if it follows the traditional cycle(and doesn't double dip positive).
  2. Carvers Gap
    This would be my overall winter forecast if pressed: Temps Dec: AN Jan: Much AN start/sesaonsal to BN to end the month Feb: Seasonal (If the Nino is classified as strong or super....much AN temps all months) Precip normal to AN. Snow.....BN for middle and west TN. E TN, especially NE TN/W NC/ SE KY/ SW VA will be dependent on a storm track which should favor the Piedmont or coast during late Jan to early Feb. Whether we get enough cold air in place to help is a giant question mark. Nino winters are often 1-2 big storms along w/ lots of slush during other events. The bitterly cold intrusions of last winter would be less likely. This is more track dependent w/ "just enough" cold in place. If this is a super Nino, warmth/zonal will potential overwhelm the pattern, and everyone strikes out. If the super/strong Nino can hold off until next spring, there should be a window for winter weather during the aforementioned months.
  3. Carvers Gap
    By the end of June last hear, TRI had reached >= 90F 13x(including May). Right now, we have not hit 90 yet. I will try to dig back through the threads, but it seems like we have had a couple of summers with similar starts during the past 20 years. During one of those summers, summer really cranked during late July and August. During another summer with a slow start, summer temps rarely reached 90 all summer. Having temps in the low 40s (flirting w/ some record min maxes earlier this month) for lows has been welcome. I have very little disease in my garden right now which is often related to heat stress and warm overnight temps. My garden last year was one of the least productive I have ever had due to the June heat. It is ripping right now. I did not re-up my sub for LR modeling over the summer. I can only see as far at Tropical Tidbits ensembles will take me which is about 16 days. So, I cannot see seasonal Cansips or Euro data sets. I can scrounge some tidbits from other forums with folks sharing their LR model data. For now, looks like we might warm-up for a few day before slipping back into the western ridge/ eastern trough configuration which we have seen since late April-ish. As for where this goes during the fall, I would think there is less chance of endless summer if precip will resume and reach normal levels. Dry wx often equals AN temps during fall. For now, I am cautiously optimistic that we see a nice end to September and a normal October. I lean seasonal to very hot for August. I suspect we will see maybe some early snows during November in the mountains. December and a good portion of January could potentially be well above normal in terms of temps. Think 50s-60s w/ overnight lows in the low 40s in perpetuity. Then, maybe we see cold air intrude far enough south by mid-late January/February(that's right, winter in Feb this year...maybe). If the Nino is strong, I will go wall-to-wall much AN temps. I am 55/45 on whether the Nino can get to those levels by mid-winter. If we stay weak or low-moderate, we would be in business. I think we reach strong moderate by late winter at the latest. The QBO could potentially reach negative levels again by roughly November or early December(if the 14 month cycle holds true). There is some decent evidence that a negative QBO does correlate to cold winters in NE TN. Right now the QBO is stagnant between +9 and +12. It dropped during May when in comparison to April. Whether that drop is simply an ebb and flow of the index is not known at this point.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just back from Montana about a week and a half ago. E TN had a couple of days that were cooler than E TN!!! Temps out West were much AN, but still very comfortable. Low humidity is the seventh wonder of the world. We did see snow, sleet, hail, and rain at about 7500'. There is plenty of snow still on the mountain tops, but it is melting quickly. We were able to take the new road into YNP from Gardiner into Mammoth. Just amazing they built that road into a paved road within four months last summer. That baby is curvy!!! Don't look at your phone or a book while riding, or you are gonna have pukers(we had one)!!!!! Fortunately, it didn't hit until out of the car. I can't imagine driving around in a rental after that! The flash floods did a number on that section of the park. Anyway, great trip. I will try to post some photos later. For once, we came back to E TN, and it didn't feel like a sauna. Monsoon season is in full swing in the northern Rockies. Watched the last episode of Ted Lasso out there. Man, what a great, great show that has been.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Loving this weather.
  6. Carvers Gap
    WBIR has video of two...one near Crossville and another in Fentress. Just looking at those, we were very fortunate not to see worse outcomes. https://www.wbir.com/article/weather/severe-weather/severe-storms-damage-tornado-tennessee/51-f6c76c20-cfa9-4a47-9f86-32fcae2e9108
  7. Carvers Gap
    Southwest Virginia has had a tornado warned cell track at decently long distance considering the elevation it is tracking at...
  8. Carvers Gap
    The Plateau has taken a beating during the last several severe seasons. That runs so counter to reasoning, but yet, there it is. High elevation storms.
  9. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, that cell to your west looks nasty. Keep us updated.
  10. Carvers Gap
    El Niño is usually far more favorable for the eastern valley.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Pretty textbook El Nino early summer pattern on several recent GFS runs. Fingers crossed not only that it verifies but also continues!
  12. Carvers Gap
    The next two weeks look abnormally dry. Let's hope that is short-lived. I don't think there is a significant drought upcoming given El Nino, but...that is how droughts get anchored(early and prolonged absence of rain during early summer). Again, I think that is unlikely, but for those at any level of agriculture... it is a royal pain in the tail.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Out of Riverton, WY, today. It sounds like @nrgjeffwrote the afternoon disco. LOL!!! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 128 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 126 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023 High pressure is currently building over the state today. And normally, this would mean a nice spring day with sunshine, mild temperatures and light to moderate wind. The problem is courtesy of our neighbors to the north, where smoke from the abnormally large fires in Alberta and Saskatchewan are making going outside like stepping into a bar in the 1970s when the requirements were a leisure suit and a pack of unfiltered Camels. My lungs and throat are begging for mercy. Anyway, it looks like the smoke should, hang around at least through the night. As for the chance of convection, it is not zero. However, the rising heights as well as the smoke are decreasing instability. There could be a couple in and near the mountains, but a vast majority of the area will remain rain free.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Good to hear. The West is baking, so Nino appears to be establishing itself as we speak. Likely means the hangover from La Nina is just about over. Nino summer are decent in terms of temps. Moderate to strong Ninos during winter are.....not so much. Highs in the 50s. Lows in the 40s. Cloudy for weeks. Snow chances very low west of the Apps, much lower west of the Plateau. The Apps do ok...valleys -> it is very tough. Leaning towards an upper end-weak Nino to moderate. BIG differences in the TN Valley between weak and moderate. The good thing is that we are coming off three consecutive La Ninas and the SST gradient may help us. The pool of analogs will likely be quite small. As of now my thinking for temps: Dec: Much AN Jan: AN but transition to seasonal as the month progresses(overall temps AN for Jan) Feb: Seasonal Snow(areas east of Plateau): Dec: Well BN Jan: Normal-ish(big question mark here) Feb: Normal Precip: AN Fall and Winter Interestingly, the endless summer of La Nina climo will be less likely this fall. Might see a cooler start to fall in regards to normals, and then AN temps as fall ends and winter begins. If the El Nino stays weak for DJF, the eastern valley would be in play from mid-Jan to early March. Nino winters are sit-and-wait since they are often back loaded.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Plenty of lightning in NE TN this AM. Lasted for a couple of hours.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Rainy pattern looking likely for at least the next seven days. Transition from spring to summer and Nina to Nino make this a very tricky time to forecast. My guess is we see some MCS stuff for a couple of weeks and then switch to typical summer rains. If Nino is finally taking over in terms of the troposphere, summer heat might be tolerable. Next winter looks quite warm if this goes to a moderate to strong state. I would almost go wall-to-wall. Still holding back on that for now.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Looks like we have our first "sort of " MCS complex arriving from the north early this afternoon in NE TN. So far, the storms don't seem to be overly severe as the thunderstorm warning were just dropped. We will see if they re-strengthen which can be a common characteristic as the afternoon warms.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, anytime you see a trough over E NA during late spring or early summer...hang on tight. It has been a while since we have seen that threat. But man, when it locks in...better make sure the insurance is good. They do a lot of damage up here. They can have a difficult time getting over the Plateau, but if they can overcome the hilly terrain in SE KY and SW VA, look out. NE TN gets hammered by those far to often. I really don't like them. LOL.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I don't have access to LR modeling right now as I normally cancel subs during the summer. Looks like ensembles want to park a stout ridge out West in the medium and LR. That "should" help with drought conditions here - maybe? Nino signal for sure on those ensembles. Are they too quick? Maybe. Maybe some concern for MCS influence when that comes into play. @nrgjeffwill have the best handle on the upcoming pattern. Maybe he will drop by....
  20. Carvers Gap
    Definitely dry IMBY. I see on the US drought monitor that the souther Plateau slipped into yellow. Maybe building drought which is common w/ La Nina during early summer - guessing that is a hangover. El Nino should take over at some point sooner than later...for now definitely dry.
  21. Carvers Gap
    From MRX on FB...great write up: [TECHNICAL POST] Hi everyone! We have read your comments & questions the last few weeks about the wind we have all been enduring so far this year and wanted to share some data & insight into how this wind compares historically and some technical meteorology info that we can use to see how anomalous it is. The line chart is # of wind advisories & high wind warnings issued for Eastern Tennessee, the mountains, and our counties in NC and VA. This archive dates back to 2005, so it’s not an exhaustive climatology. This weather office has indeed issued an unusual number of wind products so far this year. The second image contains two wind roses. These are a bit more technical, but the basics of them are they display wind data by showing where the wind comes from and how strong that wind is. The plot on the left is climatology for Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport from 1970 to 2023 constrained to just January 1 – May 3 of every year. The right plot is just this year’s data. There are two important takeaways from these wind charts. 1. The average wind recorded at Knoxville McGhee Tyson since Jan 1 is the same as the long term climatology, roughly 7.5 mph 2. This year’s wind has been more extreme versus long term climatology. That is we have experienced a greater period of calm winds and a greater period of high winds. You can see this reflected in the wind rose centers where they show the Calm % and the dark red/maroon bars are larger in this year’s plot (right) than they are in the long term climatology (left). The next logical step is to ask “why”. Best guess is the active pattern that existed out west (if anyone has seen the news about California snow) has translated to a good setup for windy days for us. The last chart is the most technical plot of the three, it shows where low and high pressure systems have been anomalously frequent over the same areas of the country. In the blue and purple areas, multiple low pressure storm systems have tracked through those areas and in the green and yellow areas, multiple high pressure ridges have tracked. Between a low and a high, a pressure gradient is formed. For us meteorologists, this plot hints that we have been in a setup this year that has allowed for strong pressure gradients over Tennessee, and that gradient is what drives the winds we’ve been seeing. That same image also explains why we did not see a snowy winter - all of the good setups for snow were out west! So, in conclusion we have indeed experienced some unusually strong and persistent winds here in the Tennessee valley. While it averages out to normal, our windy days have been windier and our light wind days have been calmer. The good news is we do experience a more calm wind-wise pattern in the summer months owing to a different climatological pattern that doesn't allow for these strong pressure gradients to set up over Tennessee. However, summer thunderstorms can always deliver strong wind gusts in their own right!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Nice stretch of early summer weather inbound. Man, today has been beautiful.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Took a trip to Philmont during the late 80s and got caught in a canyon as lightning just hammered our area(fortunately we were not on the ridges). Our campsite had a tree blown to smithereens. We had several instances of lightning during our week long trip. Unfortunately that summer, several scouts would perish due to lightning strikes throughout the course of the summer. Storms there come up quickly and are fierce in New Mexico!!!
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is wild. Not unheard of, but one of the many reasons why tracking weather is interesting. I was sitting at a track meet yesterday in 25mph sustained winds. LOL. We have run meets in 40 degree temps with drizzle, 85F temps, and yesterday the wind tempest(within three weeks of each other and at the same place)!!!
  25. Carvers Gap
    I am noticing our higher elevations have rain/snow mix for tonight on the higher ridges(even Roan Mountain City...might be a good day to check web cams tomorrow for RM). I was hardening off my tomato plants, and getting ready to put them in the garden...guess I had better wait!!! Those mid-80s during early April alway fool me.
×
×
  • Create New...